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  1. Replies
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    Yes SEA!

    Based on my research and pattern trend analysis, there is significant potential for the next small war to develop in SEA, a region of significant value to U.S. long-term and vital national interests....
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    ALCON, I am troubled by the what appears to...

    ALCON,
    I am troubled by the what appears to be a complete lack of understanding among U.S. senior political and military leadership with respect to the strategic context of future war. There...
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    Evolutionary, not revolutionary

    Gentlemen,
    I think we can all agree that 4GW does not represent the advent of a new unprecedented way of war. It is more a cyclical, evolving response by weaker adversaries and nonstate actors...
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    I believe it is quite authentic....

    ALCON,

    In regards to Mr Dilegge’s concerns about the originality and authenticity of this AAR, I believe it is quite authentic. I have read several dozen informal AARs from various...
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    Threat Open Source Intelligence Gateway

    ALCON,
    I also wanter to give a plug for the Threat Open Source Intelligence Gateway (TOSIG/ URL: http://www.tosig.com/tosig/tosig.html) This is an excellent website (free to government &...
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    Victory in Denying Us Decisive Victory

    ALCON,
    Thanks for the outstanding feedback! Currently I am working on a thesis that the "chaos" stategy of Jemaah Islamiyah in SE Asia is to achieve victory by denying us decisive victory....
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    Terms & Definitions Disconnect

    ALCON,
    Does anyone agree that there is a distinct disconnect between how U.S. military doctrine defines war and how our advesaries define war?
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    An Academic Definition

    I can't tell you how much reading I have done on this subject, but I think the best definiton for insurgency is the one Bard O'Niell uses in Terrorism & Insurgency: Insided Modern Revolutionary...
  9. Genrally agree with all

    ALCON,
    I generally agree with everything said in this particular thread. However, I do think that in some cases human behavior can be modeled. However for the most part, the U.S. intelligence...
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    Overlapping conflicts in South/SE Asia

    ALCON,
    I have been having some difficulty following this threat, but I have yet to see anny comments about the small wars occurring in the arc of conflict from Bangladesh to the Phillipines.
    ...
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    How do we model Complexity?

    I recently watched an Art of War episode where they used a simulation of crowd behavior in a congested environment to illustrated the flow of battle at Agincourt and why the French suffered such...
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    Jaded & Optimistic

    ALCON,

    My personal opinion is that Dr Barnett is correct in his assessment of how the Beltway works and how pursuit of funding and resources for narrow parochial service/agency interests drives...
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    The insurgents strategy is chaos and anarchy

    ALCON,

    It is my believe that the growing trend in insurgent campaign (shor/mid-term objectives) strategies is to generate as much chaos and anarchy as possible. By creating an environment of...
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