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Search: Posts Made By: Dayuhan
Forum: Europe 2 Days Ago
Replies: 249
Views: 5,881
Posted By Dayuhan
How would you define "success" for this doctrine...

How would you define "success" for this doctrine in the current context? What do you think the Russians are accomplishing or are likely to accomplish in the Ukraine, and how would that produce the...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 3 Days Ago
Replies: 31
Views: 819
Posted By Dayuhan
It might, and it might not. Africa is seen as a...

It might, and it might not. Africa is seen as a high risk investment destination in the US, and there are many other places in the world (SE Asia and Latin America among them) with equal growth...
Forum: Middle East 3 Days Ago
Replies: 796
Views: 23,834
Posted By Dayuhan
These are indeed core issues, but they aren't...

These are indeed core issues, but they aren't issues that the US, or anyone else, is going to resolve any time soon. The Sunni/Shi'a or Saudi/Iran clash has been going on a long time, and is likely...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 3 Days Ago
Replies: 31
Views: 819
Posted By Dayuhan
$210 billion sounds like a lot until you realize...

$210 billion sounds like a lot until you realize that total US foreign trade in 2013 was over $5 trillion; China was over $4 trillion. African trade is a drop in the bucket.

Look at the actual...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 3 Days Ago
Replies: 31
Views: 819
Posted By Dayuhan
I think people who are paying attention (limited...

I think people who are paying attention (limited number, but that's always the case) see and understand what's going on, but really, what of it? It's not a threat or a challenge or a problem for the...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 5 Days Ago
Replies: 616
Views: 69,098
Posted By Dayuhan
Oil shocks to date have, for the west at least,...

Oil shocks to date have, for the west at least, been less a matter of lack of supply than of very high prices: the oil has always been there, it's just been expensive. If supply does get really...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 5 Days Ago
Replies: 31
Views: 819
Posted By Dayuhan
I don't think anyone is blaming the Chinese for...

I don't think anyone is blaming the Chinese for Africa's current situation... more a matter of watching curiously to see how it all turns out. I personally suspect that things may get a bit messy...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 5 Days Ago
Replies: 31
Views: 819
Posted By Dayuhan
It's worked out well in the short to medium run....

It's worked out well in the short to medium run. The long run still hasn't come around.

It's important to recognize that the net capital flow between China and Africa is still inbound: the Chinese...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 6 Days Ago
Replies: 616
Views: 69,098
Posted By Dayuhan
The impact of infrastructure and transition cost...

The impact of infrastructure and transition cost on elasticity and substitution is often underrated, as when we hear facile solutions like "Europe can replace Russian gas with US gas" proposed. There...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 1 Week Ago
Replies: 616
Views: 69,098
Posted By Dayuhan
I dislike the term "peak" because it's associated...

I dislike the term "peak" because it's associated with all manner of emotional baggage. The impact of a decline in Russian production will depend on the extent and duration of the decline. "Maximum"...
Forum: Middle East 1 Week Ago
Replies: 796
Views: 23,834
Posted By Dayuhan
They also tend to follow only the parts of the...

They also tend to follow only the parts of the book that support what they choose to do, often ignoring other parts of the book in the process.

Humans have the capacity for very great cruelty,...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 1 Week Ago
Replies: 31
Views: 819
Posted By Dayuhan
It's worth noting, though, that both Latin...

It's worth noting, though, that both Latin America and SE Asia were for many years absolute basket cases, riddled by extreme violence and horrendous government... with the US up to its eyeballs in...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 1 Week Ago
Replies: 616
Views: 69,098
Posted By Dayuhan
What does he mean by "peaking"? It is certainly...

What does he mean by "peaking"? It is certainly true that without substantial investment Russian production is likely to start dropping soon, but there's no reason to see that as a "peak" imposed by...
Forum: Middle East 1 Week Ago
Replies: 796
Views: 23,834
Posted By Dayuhan
Looks like Maliki is finally out: ...

Looks like Maliki is finally out:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/iraqi-prime-minister-maliki-step-aside-abadi

Two questions:

The new guy is a designated successor from the same...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 249
Views: 5,881
Posted By Dayuhan
We still have no idea what was said in this...

We still have no idea what was said in this rumored phone call, or to what extent the rumored call was responsible for a change in Russian plans. Given that lack of knowledge I can't see how the...
Forum: Middle East 1 Week Ago
Replies: 83
Views: 3,530
Posted By Dayuhan
Justify, no... their use of terrorism cannot be...

Justify, no... their use of terrorism cannot be justified, any more than the Zionist use of terrorism can be justified. Knowing the history does help to understand what cannot be justified.

I...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 249
Views: 5,881
Posted By Dayuhan
Two questions on the "humanitarian aid" convoy

I think we all understand that this is not just "humanitarian aid", but...

Can the Russians bring in enough force in this convoy to change the momentum in the conflict? Outlaw estimated elsewhere...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 249
Views: 5,881
Posted By Dayuhan
Impossible to answer without knowing what was...

Impossible to answer without knowing what was said and what else was going on at the time.



Because they desperately needed money, and efforts to support the price by cutting production had...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 1 Week Ago
Replies: 616
Views: 69,098
Posted By Dayuhan
Container ports don't handle coal, they handle...

Container ports don't handle coal, they handle containers. Coal would move through a bulk cargo terminal, which uses very different equipment. Coal ports are typically specialized and associated with...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 58
Views: 1,314
Posted By Dayuhan
It's also a backdoor for the people who are...

It's also a backdoor for the people who are supposedly being sanctioned... they don't care if they sell direct to Russia or via Belarus or Kazakhstan, as long as they sell. The consumer of course...
Forum: US Policy, Interest, and Endgame 1 Week Ago
Replies: 5
Views: 934
Posted By Dayuhan
There are some general themes in foreign policy...

There are some general themes in foreign policy that can be identified. Multilateral engagement is clearly in. Encouraging capable allies to take greater responsibility for regional security issues...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 249
Views: 5,881
Posted By Dayuhan
Actually everbody was overproducing, of all types...

Actually everbody was overproducing, of all types of crude: the various indices moved together and rarely deviated from each other by more than a very small percentage. The glut was in no way a...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 249
Views: 5,881
Posted By Dayuhan
I did look at the link. The trolls are very...

I did look at the link. The trolls are very crude, but the blogger doesn't do much better. Someone asked:



The blogger responds:



That makes no sense at all... how would a Russian proxy...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 249
Views: 5,881
Posted By Dayuhan
I just explained that; possibly it wasn't clear. ...

I just explained that; possibly it wasn't clear.

Nobody really "led" OPEC at that point, because OPEC effectively collapsed. Its production quotas, its only tools for supporting the price, were...
Forum: Middle East 1 Week Ago
Replies: 796
Views: 23,834
Posted By Dayuhan
Complicity sounds so... conspiratorial. I don't...

Complicity sounds so... conspiratorial. I don't think the military is complicit in anything beyond trying to do what they were told to do. Sometimes badly, arguably, but anyone who hands an army a...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 200

 
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