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The exercise area is well away from the disputed area and nowhere near where the US FONOPS have been taking place.

This line from the Lowry comments:



is inaccurate: the Chinese are actually being quite careful not to apply "armed pressure". What they are doing is applying a very high degree of unarmed...

Chinese leaving Vietnam due to rioting:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/19/chinese-flee-vietnam-hanoi-riots

Putin arrives in China as naval exercises begin:
...

China sets up a drilling rig off the Paracel islands, sparking a significant confrontation that is likely to go on a while. There's been a round or ramming and water cannon incidents, with reports...

More discussion of the US/Philippine agreement...

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04/27/14/us-ph-reach-new-defense-deal

Main quote:



The "senior military source" is apparently from the...

"Rock solid" non-commitment on disputed territories:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04/27/14/us-commitment-ph-rock-solid-non-committal-disputed-waters

The US/Philippine spin:
...

China will certainly ignore any adverse ruling; that's about as close to a given as anything in international relations can be.

I don't know that China has any legitimacy to lose in the eyes of...

Aerial image of a Chinese Coast Guard ship trying to keep a Philippine resupply vessel from reaching the garrison at Secont Thomas Shoal... if nothing else, gives an idea of the comparative scale.
...

More coverage on yesterday's encounter:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-philippines-china-reef-idUSBREA2T02K20140330
...

Subsequent report:

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/101205/chinese-coast-guard-harassing-ph-ship-at-ayungin-shoal

Nothing really new, except this:



No word on whether the Philippine ship...

Current breaking news, posted to Facebook by reporters on a civilian Philippine vessel commissioned to resupply the Marine contingent at Second Thomas Shoal:

Philippine vessel attempted resupply,...

They don't need to, the way out is written into the treaty, which requires each party to "act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes". "In accordance with its...

No guns, no money, plenty of lawyers... the Philippines makes another move on the international legal side.
...

Philippines plans to resupply garrison on Second Thomas Shoal, China plans to stop them...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/uk-china-philippines-idUKBREA2G0I320140317



I don't really...

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5giyXCaG82hcuib-u2Zo0P5O6cVdw?docId=620e5040-534e-468c-a9e6-010ebf253499&hl=en



The chess game goes on... have to wonder if the Chinese are...

This time it's Second Thomas Shoal, known in the Philippines as Ayungin Shoal and to the Chinese as Ren'ai Reef. It's one of the few spots in the Spratlys occupied by the Philippines, though there's...

http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2014/02/06-us-china-nine-dash-line-bader

The U.S. and China’s Nine-Dash Line: Ending the Ambiguity

At least we seem to agree that the current US response is adequate and appropriate.



The usual US statement calls for continued free navigation and peaceful resolution of disputes. This I...

Not entirely irrational, I think. They are balancing objectives. They do want to play the nationalist card, inspire some jingoism, distract from an increasing range of domestic issues. They do not...

It is at least a potential military problem, and the problem is not fully or even primarily responsive to US policy. We can certainly use the best policy we can come up with, but even that will not...

What would you want to see the US do, in response to the situation as it currently stands?

"Potential adversary" might be more useful. Assuming that a jump from potential to actual is necessary, ar pushing into that territory before we need to go there, is not necessarily a productive way...

Do you see no contradiction between this:



and this:



China is, of course, a maritime nation, and must by your own calculus have a global outlook. What you see as the US securing trade...

Exactly. What matters is not the claim, but the ability to make it stick. That ability is restricted to nations with significant navies, a fairly small club. That's why your concern about nations...

China is actually far more dependent on maritime trade than the US. In particular, China is massively dependent on the Indian Ocean, through which huge amounts of commodity imports and merchandise...