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Search: Posts Made By: Firn
Forum: Europe 4 Days Ago
Replies: 30
Views: 1,929
Posted By Firn
Zeman got elected after a rather dirty campaign,...

Zeman got elected after a rather dirty campaign, fitting seemingly the man which has acted in style...
Forum: South Asia 6 Days Ago
Replies: 2
Views: 743
Posted By Firn
Perhaps just a quick comparision with the US LE...

Perhaps just a quick comparision with the US LE deaths (http://www.nleomf.org/facts/officer-fatalities-data/causes.html):



Roughly 150 per year, 1 out of 6000. It is difficult to break down the...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 1,058
Views: 35,481
Posted By Firn
As somebody which has advocated early quick and...

As somebody which has advocated early quick and harsh sanctions against Russia I think it is honest to say that we don't know how those might have worked out. I tend to think better at that critical...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
More interesting, from an economic point of view,...

More interesting, from an economic point of view, are the various difficulties...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
@Outlaw: Inflation, especially in the food sector...

@Outlaw: Inflation, especially in the food sector was certainly strong (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/staple-foods-rising-prices-to-hit-russian-consumers/511557.html) in this year...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
Good catch. The lack of activity is of course not...

Good catch. The lack of activity is of course not surprising if you consider the great shift away from far more modern European yards to Asian, especially South Koreans ones.

Maybe that LLC...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
@Outlaw: I'm always a bit amused on how quickly...

@Outlaw: I'm always a bit amused on how quickly and massively some analysts change their forecasts, happens also for listed companies. Of course I can afford to have no opinion on the future oil...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 112
Views: 23,103
Posted By Firn
An Italian movie classic contains a famous scence...

An Italian movie classic contains a famous scence (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9wgluQ_bcw) with perhaps a nod to Stern's book. The communista asks feebly why the Soviets, having so much land...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 112
Views: 23,103
Posted By Firn
To understand the latter books about WWII better...

To understand the latter books about WWII better from the tactical side I'm slowly making my way through Taktik im Russlandfeldzug...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
Roughly half a year ago I stated in this post...

Roughly half a year ago I stated in this post (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=153897&postcount=488):



I think it is now plain that Russia's center of gravity is indeed it's...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
Just a quick look by Bloomberg...

Just a quick look by Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-05/russia-changes-ruble-intervention-policy-to-ward-off-speculators.html):




We have of course just a limited insight but...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
Konstantin Sonin's view ...

Konstantin Sonin's view (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/ruble-s-fall-echoes-1991-not-1998/510290.html) reflects much of my own thoughts. Of course the self-inflicted wounds, the...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
Nor suprisingly the impact of the Russian...

Nor suprisingly the impact of the Russian slowdown is in those 'Stans' felt more on the import side and the soft paychecks of migrant workers. On the other hand the fall in commodity prices reduces...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
IIRC the Moscow Times run a while ago an article...

IIRC the Moscow Times run a while ago an article why Russia imports so much fish from the West and still exports a large amount to other countries. The solution is of course quite obvious and has to...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
Someone raised the positive aspects of...

Someone raised the positive aspects of devaluation. Of course there are undeniable upsides to the 'Ruble Rout' experienced this year...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
I'm a bit curious what do you mean by a lot less...

I'm a bit curious what do you mean by a lot less spin - compared to which articles and sources? I actually largely agree with all his points* apart from 'myth' 2 but one should really put it that...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 112
Views: 23,103
Posted By Firn
What the book makes perhaps clearer is the impact...

What the book makes perhaps clearer is the impact of the purges and the executions of high ranking officers during Barbarossa. The flow of informations up ranks to Stavka seemed to work worse the...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 112
Views: 23,103
Posted By Firn
The Viaz'ma Catastrophe, 1941: The Red Army's...

The Viaz'ma Catastrophe, 1941: The Red Army's Disastrous Stand against Operation Typhoon...
Forum: Europe 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 192
Views: 7,382
Posted By Firn
While there is still a lot in flux Radio Free...

While there is still a lot in flux Radio Free Europe came up with ten quick take-aways from Ukraine's vote (http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-vote-takeaways-things-we-learned/26659694.html):


...
Forum: Europe 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 192
Views: 7,382
Posted By Firn
While there seems to be little new in the East,...

While there seems to be little new in the East, just a low intenstity war, the election tomorrow will likely rout the parties and players formerly friendly to Moscow. The Maidan movement and the...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 10-21-2014
Replies: 624
Views: 74,113
Posted By Firn
As I don't think that technology can keep the...

As I don't think that technology can keep the costs of crude at the current levels in the long run, putting also in the long run something similar to a floor under it's price, it will continue to get...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 10-20-2014
Replies: 624
Views: 74,113
Posted By Firn
I broadly agree with you and history shows indeed...

I broadly agree with you and history shows indeed that oil prices swing indeed a great deal. The low prices of today have often been an important factor in the high prices in the next future.

I...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 10-17-2014
Replies: 624
Views: 74,113
Posted By Firn
After the oil rout in the last months it might be...

After the oil rout in the last months it might be useful to return to this topic. The oil market has of course known far more dramatic movement and swings, and I have no idea what the oil price will...
Forum: Europe 10-16-2014
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
Stepping back it is important to look again at...

Stepping back it is important to look again at the link between the economy and public support for the leadership. According to the Moscow Times most Russians think western sanctions will Boost...
Forum: Europe 10-16-2014
Replies: 427
Views: 22,629
Posted By Firn
It seems now quite likely that the Russian...

It seems now quite likely that the Russian central bank will hike it's rates, accepting the trade-offs. We will see, maybe they can weather the storm without but if the pressure on the ruble...
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