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Search: Posts Made By: Dayuhan
Forum: Asia-Pacific 10-14-2014
Replies: 2
Views: 702
Posted By Dayuhan
Captain Cook wouldn't have had the incident all...

Captain Cook wouldn't have had the incident all over the global media.

Last April the US and the Philippines signed an "Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement" providing the US a substantially...
Forum: Asia-Pacific 10-13-2014
Replies: 2
Views: 702
Posted By Dayuhan
Another incident potentially involving a US serviceman...

This hit the social media mill yesterday, in the news today:

www.nytimes.com/2014/10/14/world/asia/member-of-us-military-questioned-in-death-of-filipino.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0



Additional...
Forum: Middle East 09-29-2014
Replies: 1,088
Views: 50,670
Posted By Dayuhan
Interesting look at the threats and opportunities...

Interesting look at the threats and opportunities ISIS presents for the Kurds...

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/09/29/fight-lives

Key paragraph:
Forum: Middle East 09-25-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
That's... entertaining, given your own habit of...

That's... entertaining, given your own habit of simply declaring that early American intervention was "the right thing", while presenting no supporting evidence or logic beyond variants on the ...
Forum: Middle East 09-23-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
It seems inevitable that intractable problems...

It seems inevitable that intractable problems will generate utterly unrealistic "solutions" from onlookers, but this conflict seems to be doing more than its share. This has to be right up there near...
Forum: Middle East 09-19-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
Paul is well out on the fringe on any subject and...

Paul is well out on the fringe on any subject and well beyond the fringe on foreign policy; his views would hardly be thought "usual". A more mainstream view, a better illustration of the arguments...
Forum: Middle East 09-19-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
That doesn't mean concern doesn't exist in other...

That doesn't mean concern doesn't exist in other places as well. You don't have to be an autocrat to notice that transitions out of autocracy, especially those initiated by external meddling, are a...
Forum: Europe 09-19-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
Russian production isn't falling because of a...

Russian production isn't falling because of a shortage of reserves, it's falling because of a shortage of investment. In the short run the impact is the same, but a deficit of investment can be...
Forum: Europe 09-17-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
The question is whether the economic oligarchs,...

The question is whether the economic oligarchs, both licit and illicit, have sufficient influence to persuade Putin to change course. Not sure anyone knows the answer to that question... we'll find...
Forum: Middle East 09-17-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
I don't think anyone seriously disputes that. ...

I don't think anyone seriously disputes that.



There's also a great deal of skepticism and concern that a move toward democracy could result in chaos and collapse. A lot of the support for the...
Forum: Middle East 09-17-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
Who exactly is saying this, and where?

Who exactly is saying this, and where?
Forum: Europe 09-16-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
Of course; it's been that way for ages, it's only...

Of course; it's been that way for ages, it's only recently that people are looking. As I said, any information from Russian sources has to be assumed to be unreliable. They are in a bad way on a lot...
Forum: Middle East 09-16-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
This going well off topic and probably should be...

This going well off topic and probably should be moved elsewhere, but I'll leave that to David...



Influence in any given case depends on the extent and credibility of the incentives and...
Forum: Middle East 09-15-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
More likley CIA, DoD, DoS and a few others did a...

More likley CIA, DoD, DoS and a few others did a detailed breakdown on the opposition groups, what might be done to help them, and what the probable and possible consequences would be, and the...
Forum: Europe 09-15-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
Anything from official Russian sources has to be...

Anything from official Russian sources has to be taken with multiple grains of salt.

Given the opacity of Russian budget processes, we have no way of knowing what prices they are assuming when...
Forum: Europe 09-14-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
They work if they accomplish their goal... have...

They work if they accomplish their goal... have they? Only if the Russians back away in the Ukraine, and that doesn't seem to be happening.



Rumors always spread fast. They don't always turn...
Forum: Middle East 09-14-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
The tools are pretty much what they've always...

The tools are pretty much what they've always been, we just have to be more realistic about what we can expect to accomplish with them, particularly when it comes to meddling in the internal affairs...
Forum: Europe 09-14-2014
Replies: 1,281
Views: 43,775
Posted By Dayuhan
These are goals, not a strategy. The strategy is...

These are goals, not a strategy. The strategy is the means that are supposed to get you the goals, and if these are the goals, the Russians are not exactly doing well on the strategy side.


...
Forum: Middle East 09-14-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
Very few DoS people spend enough time in one...

Very few DoS people spend enough time in one country (let alone enough time outside the embassy/bubble) to offer realistic "strategies for promoting peace and economic development over time in their...
Forum: Europe 09-14-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
We all see that the price has fallen. Whether...

We all see that the price has fallen. Whether this is in the range of normal fluctuation or the start of an extended decline remains to be seen. I certainly wouldn't assume either, there are many...
Forum: Europe 09-13-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
Some clips from the oil price discussion... ...

Some clips from the oil price discussion...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/saudi-arabia-told-opec-it-cut-oil-output-408k-b-d-in-aug-.html





Obviously nobody knows for sure what...
Forum: Europe 09-13-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
PS to above: Outlaw, I still think you're...

PS to above:

Outlaw, I still think you're wildly overrating the importance of categorizing Russian oil as "sour". Urals is in fact a medium sour blend with API gravity of around 31.2 and sulfur...
Forum: Middle East 09-13-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
It's seldom attempted because Americans have...

It's seldom attempted because Americans have finally figured out that it doesn't work. Might get a cosmetic shuffling of faces, a few paper "reforms" that are not enforced or taken seriously... but...
Forum: Europe 09-12-2014
Replies: 500
Views: 26,294
Posted By Dayuhan
As usual with stuff flying around on Twitter,...

As usual with stuff flying around on Twitter, this is suspect: there's no indicated source for the data and no actual transactions cited. The figures would represent a very large deviation from the...
Forum: Middle East 09-12-2014
Replies: 826
Views: 80,166
Posted By Dayuhan
Just out of curiosity... which regimes...

Just out of curiosity... which regimes specifically do you propose to remove, and what do you propose to do in those countries once the regimes are removed?
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