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Thread: Syria in 2016 (January-March)

  1. #2841
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat...I understand the military important of Palmyra for IS as the connecting point between Iraqi and Syrian positions but why is Assad and Putin so determined to take it at the cost of destroying the fighting morale of what ground forces they have left??
    This is a combination of 'prestige' and 'useful position'.

    For the IRGC, Palmyra is important in order to re-establish road-links to the RGD/NDF garrision in Dayr az-Zawr. The latter is presently supplied with helicopters, which is obviously a big logistical burden.

    Also, the airport in Palmyra used to be a major delivery point for IRGC's reinforcements and arms delivered to Syria, back in 2013-2014. It's 'easier' to keep such ops low-profile there than in Hama because the place is so isolated.

    Third point is the threat of that Saudi/Jordan/US-supported 'New Syrian Army': this has captured a huge swat of (empty) area stretching from Dmeyr in the West all the way to Taft border crossing to Iraq, and is presently advancing in direction of al-Bukamal (on Syrian-Iraqi border). If the IRGC & consorts fails to take Palmyra, this would enable the NSyA to attack the Daesh there from the south. So, 'better' to have that big concentration of troops there, and be the first to defeat the Daesh in Palmyra.

    Finally, everybody - i.e. Assadists, IRGC, and the Daesh - is keen to destroy Palmyra. The place was staunchly anti-Assad: there was a big uprising there in 2012, but that was crushed by Assadists. When Daesh took over it slaughtered whatever was left of revolutionaries (there are still a few hiding inside the city, but there will be to nothing left of the city once this battle is over).

  2. #2842
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    Might be a totally dumb question then why not simply flow by and encircle Palmyra isolating it completely or is in your opinion the air base so important for the over all control of Syria via IRGC and Hezbollah just as they are doing now inside Iraq via their Iranian IRGC supported Shia warlord militias like KH which now has the current Iraqi Shia government highly concerned.

    Then on top of all this it does appear that when Assad gave his press conference where he stated he was going to reconquer Syria and the Russian UNSC Ambassador appeared to whistle him back Russia really was not whistling him back....then declared "the pull out" to just give the illusion to the West that they were not in "agreement" which if you read all Russian statements they actually agree with Assad's assessment.....

    The reason I say this is that the Russian Syria Express sealift operation is just as strong now as it was before the Putin declared "withdrawal"......
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-22-2016 at 08:05 AM.

  3. #2843
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    One of the best individuals at understanding overall Russian intent......

    Mark Galeotti ‎@MarkGaleotti has an article (behind a pay wall) 'Hybrid, ambiguous, and non-linear? How new is #Russia’s ‘new way of war’?
    Spoiler: not very https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.c...ew-way-of-war/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-22-2016 at 08:10 AM. Reason: Replaced as pay wall exists

  4. #2844
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    Another perfect example of just how driving on one's legacy as just about the only foreign policy this WH has that will be causing the next incoming President some serious heartburn whoever it is.....

    If we go back to the Obama Cairo speech which in effect triggered the "Arab Springs" in the ME he basically stated two things...his support for conservative Islam, the retaining of the current ME governments but a not so subtle call to the young of the ME...there needs to be a democratic movement towards change.

    So after declaring his support of conservative Islam he then batters the bastion of conservative Islam...KSA.

    Now after beating them up again publicly in his Goldberg Obama Doctrine interview he is traveling to a far far different Saudi influenced GCC which is involved in numerous Tehran initiated proxy wars...not the other way around that Obama seems intent on spreading via disinformation.

    NOW after he has agitated against the GCC and the Saudi's he is throwing it over the fence to the next President...SO he does have after all a strategy...all talk and no actions for eight long years of neo isolationism.....hoping that the world and the US public does not recognize it.....

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/21/op...ebuke-to-the-s...

    A Presidential Rebuke to the Saudis

    By THE EDITORIAL BOARDMARCH 21, 2016

    It is rare for an American president to skewer a friendly government publicly. But that’s what President Obama did last week in presenting a well-considered analysis of troubles in the relationship with Saudi Arabia.

    Mr. Obama has long regarded Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab countries as repressive societies whose strict interpretation of Islam contributes to extremism. In a blunt and lengthy discussion with Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic, Mr. Obama included the Saudis among other “free rider” allies that ask the United States to fight their battles for them and “exploit American ‘muscle’ for their own narrow and sectarian ends.”

    Mr. Obama, who has blamed Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab governments for encouraging anti-American militancy, also told Mr. Goldberg that the Saudis should try harder to “share the neighborhood” by achieving “some sort of cold peace” with their enemies in Iran.

    The Saudis promptly fired back. Writing in the Arab News, Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi intelligence chief, argued that Mr. Obama does not appreciate all his government has done, including sharing intelligence in the fight against terrorism. But the fact is, this decades-long partnership, born of antipathy to the Soviet Union and an American reliance on Saudi oil, is growing increasingly brittle.
    Photo

    President Obama meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef of Saudi Arabia at the White House in 2015. Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times

    The Saudis have become so afraid that Shiite Iran will dominate the region that they tried to kill the Iranian nuclear deal, even though it sharply curbed Tehran’s nuclear activities. The Saudi-Iranian competition has fanned proxy wars in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. The Saudis’ intervention in Yemen has further fueled a disastrous war there between a Saudi-supported government and the Iranian-backed Houthis. And they have supported some of the more radical rebel groups fighting President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who is backed by Iran.

    Given all this, it’s little wonder that Prince Turki scoffed at Mr. Obama’s “share the neighborhood” idea.

    As far back as 2002, Mr. Obama, in a speech, referred to Saudi Arabia and Egypt as America’s “so called” allies and said they needed to stop suppressing dissent and tolerating corruption and inequality. More recently, according to Mr. Goldberg’s article, Mr. Obama has also asserted that there can be no comprehensive solution to Islamist terrorism until Islam comes to terms with the modern world. Unfortunately, the Saudi royal family, now in the hands of a shaky new leadership team, and with the Saudi economy stressed by falling oil prices, shows no serious interest in enlightened renewal.

    Mr. Obama has now forced a behind-the-scenes conversation about the Saudi-American relationship into the open. Is there anything Washington can do to encourage transformative reforms? Apart from expressing critical views, even Mr. Obama, who will visit Saudi Arabia for a meeting with Gulf leaders next month, has felt a need to maintain the alliance largely along traditional lines.

    There is little time left in the president’s term to rethink how the United States and Saudi Arabia can move forward together. That task will largely belong to his successor.

  5. #2845
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    One has to seriously wonder just why Obama and Kerry have bought into Putin's non linear war directed against the US...meaning doing everything in their power to actually support it......WHEN Obama publicly stated in 2014...."we will judge Putin on his actions not his words"...THEN Putin throws both a little "action" and the US caves......

    After Putin's fake withdrawal from Syria, two days later, he's threatening to bomb Syrian cease-fire violators
    http://wapo.st/1ZlsnpN?tid=ss_tw

    WHICH BTW includes, Iran, Hezbollah and the Assad regime forces........

    ALL thw while we have a serious ongoing slow stepped Russian ground offensive in full gear against UAF frontline positions....AND not a single public Obama nor Kerry comment on the attacks by the Russians.

    ALSO notice that while the US DoS supposedly has this high tech 1-800 call center for Syrians to call in the variously CoH violations which in itself is a farce WE have never heard from DoS just who is violating the CoH.

    JUST as in the Ukraine...with all of the billions spent on the ISR capabilities of the US intel community....Obama and Kerry have never called out Russia for it's constant flow of weapons and troops into Ukraine...I take that back...only once did they do it in 2014 After social media open source analysts had already released their data on the Russian military shelling's from Russia and their actual invasion of eastern Ukraine....

  6. #2846
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    Alexander Yakovenko
    ✔ ‎@Amb_Yakovenko Over the last 24 hours, @MoD_Russia delivered 5.5 tons of humanitarian aid to Homs in Syria


    BUT WAIT it was all military supplies being loaded onto Russian military trucks...just as the Russian have now sent in their 50th "humanitarian aid" convoy to eastern Ukraine which is usually all military supplies and fuel and one truck with civilian aid supplies...one truck......out of usually 50......

  7. #2847
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    For those SWJ readers who think that IS does not drive on an intelligence driven operations concept...their attack cells use a form of OPSEC tradecraft that resembles that of spy cell tradecraft......think again.....reference today's Brussels airport bombing....we saw this as far back as 2003 in Iraq and it has not changed since 2003.

    Cells operating by the book if one gets neutralized the other one gets into action to divert attention from the first cell.....and what has come out of the Brussels major arrest....not a single use of any form of communications outside of face to face....defeats every time any form of major communications surveillance operations.

    Defeating IS cells has always been about the heavy use of police and security services to defeat them using their own tactics...not through the use of high tech which we seem to think is the be all end all.

    BREAKINGNEWS
    At least 11 dead, 25 injured in #BrusselsAttack.
    - Brussels fire department


    Report
    Shots fired & shouting in Arabic prior two major explosions in #Brussels.
    - witnesses to @BelgaNewsAgency

    Video from inside the #Brussels airport terminal from shortly after the explosions.
    Widespread destruction.
    https://www.facebook.com/jef.versele...8020379759864/

    Reports of explosion at #Malbeek metro in Brussels. -

    Three blasts at three different metro stations in #Brussels
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 08:47 AM. Reason: Copied to main Europe CT thread

  8. #2848
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    Assad airstrikes targeted #Irbin in rural #Damascus a little while ago. #Syria

    Reports several civilians wounded in the Assad airstrikes on Khan Sheikhoun earlier #Syria

    From yesterday.....
    Reports of coalition airstrikes assisting rebels with push against #ISIS in Touqli, north rural #Aleppo

    After targeting the town w/ heavy artillery & rocket fire, reports now Assad helicopters are dropping barrel bombs on Kafrzita in #Hama
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 08:23 AM.

  9. #2849
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    Cessation of hostilities is openly falling apart now under the weight of Assad and Russian ground and air attacks with FSA defending or fighting against only IS WHICH is who Putin claimed he was also fighting against.....

    Syria Regime continues airstrikes & artillery shelling on rebels in #Latakia mountains, #Idlib, #Hama, #Aleppo & #Damascus
    "Truce" crumbles


    BUT WAIT Russian MoD stated they would attack all truce violators..SO are they going to attack their own forces?????

    BECAUSE they certainly are not attacking IS....

    Footage
    #Assad war plane, bombing civilians in #EastGhouta yesterday.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBNgGbo44rg
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 08:29 AM.

  10. #2850
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    Footage
    #FSA troops on their way to fight #ISIS offshoot in S-W #Daraa province.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzRSqdZETNc

    BREAKING
    4 #SAA airstrikes so far on #Erbeen
    #Damascus cs #Syria Mar 22

    ADF - New Syria Army: 2 #ISIS fighters killed & 10s wounded during infiltration attempt at Tanf crossing #Syria
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 08:40 AM.

  11. #2851
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    Again proves just how important the attack cell bomb maker is to the success of this style of attack.....from the Paris attacks to now the Brussels airport and reports from a possible bomb attack on the Brussels Metro.....a bomb maker made it happen.

    This was a serious lessons learned from Iraq...and the Brussel federal security service evidently just missed him in their raid the other days...might be the reason they shifted straight to attacks now as they feel the Belgium federal security service is just a quarter step behind them....which is probably true...
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-22-2016 at 11:31 AM.

  12. #2852
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Might be a totally dumb question then why not simply flow by and encircle Palmyra isolating it completely....
    I'm wondering about this too and the only conclusion left is that I do not recognize the IRGC in this war any more.

    I discussed this with few of people who either have links to the gang or... well, at least 'know a little bit about it', and we all don't understand what's going on - and it's quite similar. Back in the 1980s, the IRGC would drive around flanks, infiltrate big style, at least concentrate on the schwerpunkt and do its best not to assault frontally etc. Back in late summer 2013, they were launching sophisticated noctrunal infantry attacks in urban areas; they were running heliborne ops behind enemy lines (the last I know about was in the western Qalamoun, in early 2014), and proved very successful with that.

    With all the supplies, air- and fire-support advantage they have nowadays, they should have no problem to repeat that performance. But meanwhile they are hard to recognize as the IRGC agan. All they're doing is frontal attack, frontal attack, frontal attack...

    So, I'm on the verge of joining those who are seriously connecting this 'tactics' with years of 'Arabisation' of entire Iranian society by the IRGC - especially so during Ahmadinejad's times.

    (Ironically, and as shown by Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, it's the Arab militaries [or at least their air forces and special forces] that made giant leaps ahead meanwhile...)

    Russians are their own story: all the time insistent to show they were doing nothing the last 20 years (or at least had no serious/realistic tactical training), botching up with unrealistic planning, bravado (which is easy: it's not their troops they're 'spending') etc.

    And overall, all of these 'brigades', 'special forces', 'elite forces' etc.: seems all of that is simply BS. At best, a 'brigade' there appears to be what would be called a 'reinforced company' in the NATO, mounted on about 10-15 4WDs, and supported by 1-2 T-72s, few BMP-1s and perhaps a Shilka too. Even the IRGC appears to be suffering from lack of manpower in Syria meanwhile, not to talk about regime.

    Add to this the completely insane lenght of frontlines the regime insists on controlling - and combine that with the Daesh: one can't leave a bigger stretch of the 'frontline' to them unoccuppied/unguarded for longer, then they are quick to recognize such places and exploit them for their infiltrations and/or outflanking attacks. Daesh lacks the fire-power - especially so in defence, no doubt, but are 'equalizing' this by creating incredible minefields that take ages to clear.

    Then on top of all this it does appear that when Assad gave his press conference where he stated he was going to reconquer Syria and the Russian UNSC Ambassador appeared to whistle him back Russia really was not whistling him back....then declared "the pull out" to just give the illusion to the West that they were not in "agreement" which if you read all Russian statements they actually agree with Assad's assessment.....
    I stopped reading any kind of reports about what Assad or Putler say. It's pointless because the more one studies them, the less are they making sense (at least to me).

    For me, only one thing is certain: neither can be trusted. Unsurprisingly, there is no trace of something like 'Russian withdrawal from Syria', just 'replacement of spent forces by fresh ones'.

    The reason I say this is that the Russian Syria Express sealift operation is just as strong now as it was before the Putin declared "withdrawal"......
    I would say that the direct involvement of the Russian Army in this war is going to become ever more important. Their allies in Syria do not have the necessary troops any more.

  13. #2853
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    After hiding behind #Hezbollah beards while demanding oppo cuts theirs off #Assad clams up:
    https://en.zamanalwsl.net/mobile/rea...9W60wg.twitter

    War criminal regime delegate Bashar Ja'afari said #Assad's future had "nothing to do" with peace negotiations:

  14. #2854
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    Further to the issue of 'why don't they just flow by'...

    Here an article in Russian, 'revealing' (that is: de-facto confirming what I'm 'preaching' about since months) some details...

    Rough translations of key-points:
    - When Russians arrived, they found that the Syrian General Staff had about 130,000 troops under command, but only about 25,000 of these were capable of fighting;

    - Russians then 'manually' established that '4th Assault Corps', which is primarily consisting of mercenary outfits.

    - Even so, conclusion is that this is far from enough for any kind of 'radical change';

    - combat capability of 'Bashar Assad's army' remains questionable;

    - the Syrian-Turkish border was not brought under control;

    - advance in Palmyra is extremely slow;

    - the 'IG' (see Daesh) is neither destroyed nor asking for 'mercy' (guess, they mean either negotiations or conditions).

    The article also implies that most of Su-24Ms and Su-25SMs ended their part of the campaign in need of factory-level overhauls, i.e. out of flying ressources. I guess now, this was the crucial reason for
    a) Russians actually being in a rush to 'enforce' a cease-fire by March 2016
    b) Putler then announcing withdrawal at the earliest possible opportunity (although, of course, there is none: worn-out aircraft were simply replaced with platforms more suitable to local conditions).

    (Mind: even then, at least two of Su-24s had to abort their flights back to Russia and then return to Hmemmem AB for repairs...).

  15. #2855
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    As if #brusselsattack wasn't bad enough, ISIS had just shown it has detailed intel on US troop movements in Iraq.
    http://thebea.st/1LCOiGF

    Russia's fake ISIS bombing effort (bombing civilians & rebels instead) speaks volumes about their anti west interests & allies
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 01:24 PM.

  16. #2856
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    Ever notice after close review the similarities between the Putin attack on US neo liberalism using his non linear warfare and comments being made by Trump???

    “Trump is proposing nothing less than the liquidation of the liberal world order”
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26958...2438ee05b.html... …

    The similarity is actually quite close.....

    Interesting. One of Trump's foreign policy advisors was a Gazprom relationship manager at Merill Lynch.
    http://qz.com/644277/donald-trump-fi...ss-with-putin/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 03:28 PM.

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    FSA launch battle against al-Muthanna in Jallin
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32...89666&z=13&m=b

    Harakat al-Muthanna & Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade now fighting together against #FSA in western #Daraa province

    Turkey army shelling #IslamicState with heavy artillery around Al-Ra'i in northern #Aleppo #Syria

    More Assad terrorists fled to Germany as valid Syrian Sunni refugees......
    Opposition investigation group claim these bunch of #Assad-forces fled to #Germany- now "#refugees" in Langdorf


    Damascus 14 regime airstrikes on eastern Ghouta this morning

    4 regime-airstrikes on Erbin suburb of #Damascus this morning
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rPfpR3cI1k

    Assad SAA terrorists shelling mortars on #Douma now
    #Damascus cs #Syria MAR 22


    2 airstrikes so far on #Habit now
    #IDlib cs #Syria MAR 22

    Russian TV report about the navy seals massing near Palmyra before the car bomb attack
    https://youtu.be/f6sSEOubOBU
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 03:16 PM.

  18. #2858
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    Assad mufti threat against EU issued in 2011...and he is teaching now in the EU.....

    Assad regime mufti Ahmed Hassoun in 2011 threatening suicide bomb attacks on Europe

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL2dTzEgr98

    Need to remember just how close Assad and IS work together......

    KGB ran terrorist organizations all over the world during Cold War. Why would they abandon this now?

    Russian MFA implies that Brussels is paying for its "support of terrorism in the Middle East & North Caucasus"
    http://www.kp.ru/daily/26506/3376117/

    IS just claimed responsibility for #Brussels bombings
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 03:25 PM.

  19. #2859
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    Russia media now suggesting Erdogan has something to do with #brusselsattack
    Yet, FSB 'warned' Brussels.

    https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/statu...50005856190464

  20. #2860
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    Eliot Higgins ‎@EliotHiggins
    The Economics of War: A Case Study on Jaish al-Islam via @bellingcat
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2016...aish-al-islam/


    Eliot Higgins ‎@EliotHiggins
    North Korean HT-16PGJ MANPADS in Syria via @bellingcat
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...pads-in-syria/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2016 at 05:48 PM.

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