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Old 10-12-2017   #83
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Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 814
Default My Conventional Limited First Strike Scenario

Please feel free to comment and critique...My thesis is that North Korea's WMD capabilities and conventional Seoul-threatening artillery can both be knocked out.

1. Washington confers with Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo and presents a plan to launch a disarming conventional first strike on North Korea with the objective of eliminating its CBRN and particularly nuclear capabilities. Secondary objectives would be minimizing casualties in general, protecting the region from North Korean retaliation and deterring or if necessary winning a full-scale Second Korean War. Neither regime change nor unification will be part of the objectives, in order to allay Sino-South Korean concerns, however, all parties will be required to contribute to the humanitarian aid required in the aftermath of the operation.

2. In order to prevent North Korean observance of attack preparations, the U.S. and South Korea will rely upon forces already in-theater or which are non-observable. The strike will solely be conducted with standoff (TLAM, JASSM-ER) and stealth (B-2) weapons. The assets will include US attack and cruise missile submarines already operating in the Pacific as well as strategic bombers already allocated to the Pacific as part of the "Pivot" (60%). These assets can reasonably be expected to bring 1,400 to 1,900 land-attack cruise missiles (or their equivalent in Mk 84 bombs via B-2s) into the theater. The U.S. Navy alone has 3,500 TLAMs stockpiled.

3. Follow-on forces, including the Carrier Strike Group in Japan, can be moved into position if necessary.

4. At zero hour, U.S. and ROK artillery along the DMZ open up on the 200-500 HARTS in North Korea to suppress any (counter)battery fire against allied forces or countervalue targets in and around Seoul. At the same time, cruise missiles begin striking the 350-430 SAM sites in North Korea, with an emphasis on C4ISR. B-2s can be applied where necessary, and possibly also against airbases hosting MiG-29 fighters. In addition, there are some 165-210 ballistic missiles on TELs that will need to be struck, as well as 35 to 60 CBRN facilities where WMDs could be mated to delivery systems. All in all, the target set for the strike would range from 750 to 1,200 discrete targets, of which U.S./ROK artillery in situ could tackle 200-500 of. Once the IADS is destroyed, the ROKAF/USAF can begin overflying North Korean airspace, and the forward-deployed USN CAW can also come into the picture.

5. Following this major strike and assuming that the operation is successful, it will be essential to prevent a North Korean conventional retaliatory invasion. The Allies will have to communicate their limited intentions to Pyongyang, but also to the DPRK forces along the DMZ, and airdrops of leaflets, medical supplies and food will go a long way. At this point, China could also intervene to stabilize North Korea by promising protection from a ground invasion and providing humanitarian aid.

6. If this sounds difficult: it is. But so too was Operation Desert Storm, and this is just as doable.

Sources include:

Last edited by Azor; 10-12-2017 at 01:50 AM.
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