Afghanistan, its neighbours and non-NATO nations

[davidbfpo]

This is the fourth of five new threads, its focus is the often, to be polite turbulent, complex relationship with its neighbours, hence the title Afghanistan, its neighbours and non-NATO nations; yes, India, Iran, Pakistan, China and Russia.

There are numerous threads on this theme, including a number in the South Asia arena, so I have refrained from listing them all and chosen the most relevant IMHO:

1) China's role in Afghanistan: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=16608
2) The Indian role in Afghanistan: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3166
3)Iran & USA allies in Afghanistan:stranger than reality: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=729

The South Asia arena: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...splay.php?f=74

I expect there can be cross-over between the topics, notably how the US, with NATO, respond to these nations interaction with the Afghan national government, the Taliban and each other. Not to overlook Afghanistan's "best friend" and often unhelpful, even hostile neighbour, the Pakistan military (including ISI) and Pakistani politicians.

[davidbfpo]

Once again China offers help to Afghanistan and Pakistan, with civil schemes. Note Kunar Province hydro-electric plant. Since previous schemes have been halted one wonders if this is rhetoric only.
Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...LE1VA20150210?

[davidbfpo]

This can hardly come as a shock given relations elsewhere and I am unsure whether it will actually matter now:

Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev has revoked a decree that allowed delivery of NATO military equipment to Afghanistan through Russian territory.

Link:http://rt.com/news/259809-russia-sto...anistan-cargo/

There is an old, now closed thread on supply routes into Afghanistan, for background reading:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=6386

[davidbfpo]

An update on China's role by Raffaello Pantucci (who has affection for the region), which IMHO ends rather optimistically:

China has set itself up to be a major player in Afghanistan’s future and expectations are being raised. It now needs to find ways of asserting itself both politically and economically to play the role that increasingly is being expected of it. Beijing may still shy from such ambitious aims, but at the same time, it is now too late to back away from them. China needs to find its feet and move forward in a more certain manner in Afghanistan.

Link:http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/can-c...n-afghanistan/

[omarali50]

China is still in the "1950s" phase of being big brother to Pakistan. Their strategy is likely to be to wait for their man in Islamabad to deliver the peace and strategic depth and free bauxite he promised.
It takes a while to get to to CSF suspension level. Sometimes it takes decades. (Chinese are fast learners though )

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for an article on:

Several weeks ago, amid little fanfare, India and Afghanistan concluded an arms deal. This was no run-of-the-mill transaction: It was a significant weapons transfer — perhaps one of the most consequential in the South Asia region in several years, thanks to the precedent it sets and the considerable implications it may have for regional stability.

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2015/12/the...ver-heard-of/?