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Thread: Gazing in the Congo (DRC): the dark heart of Africa (2006-2017)

  1. #681
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    It would be far cheaper and simpler to remove any military entity in the DRC to include their civil guard and police. Their functions and means are clearly not helping.

    The only way I see a return to normalcy would be to recolonize the country. It would take decades to return the DRC to the state it was in when I arrived in 84. Even then most Belgians told me it was already too late to bring K-town back.

    The UN is spending 1.2 million annually with a 20,000-strong mission and yet, has failed to stop the violence, and ended up in scandals. Lately, they can’t even be mandated to defeat a 1,000-man M23 with attack helicopters.

    The US under the watchful eye of AFRICOM has recently spent 50 or 60 million trying to train 750 Congolese to behave and not rape, pillage and plunder. But the elimination of the LRA was hot and cash was abundant. Generally when we use USG cash for training we have to vet all the participants for human rights violations. Generally ? So, we went about business anyway similar to the Chinese who could give a sierra about human rights.

    The DRC and UN labels Rwandan president Kagame as a warmonger, but yet he was named the African Peace Personality of 2012 and in October Rwanda was elected one of three countries to take up a non-permanent place on the 15-member UN Security Council. What ?

    Honestly, there is no governance, they have never experienced free and fair elections, and the military has always been a dull tool in the shed for the government to use and not pay. We can’t replace something that never existed and no amount of money will suffice.
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  2. #682
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    Ok, but that same metric work for MONUSCO? They seem sort of hide-bound and maybe paralyzed. In any event, moot since MONUSCO still holds the airport.
    Nothing would surprise me. If the UN still holds the airport, I suspect it is because M23 (Rwanda) allows them to keep it. I was talking to a friend of mine and we figured that it would not be at all implausible if those UN attack helos didn't go anywhere because of a deal. 'You allow us to stay here and we won't strafe you and shoot rockets at you anymore even though we were doing that this morning.' 'Ok. Fine with us and also you don't see all those airplanes coming in and going out nor do you check their cargoes.' 'Ok. Fine with us.'

    The Goma airport by the way is something else. The north end of the runway is (or was when I last saw it) a wall of lava I think about 30' high. That's it. That's the over run area. And they run commercial jets in and out of there.

    I never liked Goma much. It was always cloudy with a volcano smoking or glowing to the north. It's like a place where God feels a need to constantly remind you who the real boss is.
    Last edited by carl; 11-21-2012 at 04:41 PM.
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  3. #683
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    It was a mere compromise in 94 when the UN was purportedly in charge. It took some fancy footwork to keep that going.

    Not even the Western powers could come to terms all the while the Zairois were stealing everything that was not bolted down.

    Goma is a place that cannot be explained on paper. One has to experience it first hand before it remotely becomes clear.

    Carl, Goma gives me nightmares to this day !

    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Nothing would surprise me. If the UN still holds the airport, I suspect it is because M23 (Rwanda) allows them to keep it. I was talking to a friend of mine and we figured that it would not be at all implausible if those UN attack helos didn't go anywhere because of a deal. 'You allow us to stay here and we won't strafe you and shoot rockets at you anymore even though we were doing that this morning.' 'Ok. Fine with us and also you don't see all those airplanes coming in and going out nor do you check their cargoes.' 'Ok. Fine with us.'

    The Goma airport by the way is something else. The north end of the runway is (or was when I last saw it) a wall of lava I think about 30' high. That's it. That's the over run area. And they run commercial jets in and out of there.

    I never like Goma much. It was always cloudy with a volcano smoking or glowing to the north. It's like a place where God feels a need to constantly remind you who the real boss is.
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  4. #684
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    M-A: That is a good point about Uganda and Rwanda using us as much as we are using them.

    M-A & Stan: Do you think that, over a period of time, decades maybe and slowly, the DRC may be divided up amongst the neighboring countries?
    Last edited by carl; 11-21-2012 at 04:48 PM.
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    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Carl, Goma gives me nightmares to this day !
    It spooked me a little when it was all peaceful. I can't imagine how what you and Tom saw added to that.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Carl,
    If you mean the return of the AFDL with Zairian political assistance to oust the Pres, then yes. But the DRC has come too far for a repeat performance and I doubt the greedy politicians want another taste of slight freedom and pissed off Ugandan and Rwandan forces.

    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    M-A: That is a good point about Uganda and Rwanda using us as much as we are using them.

    M-A & Stan: Do you think that, over a period of time, decades maybe and slowly, the DRC may be divided up amongst the neighboring countries?
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    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    I am not in Gods secrets but there are persistent rumors of M23 taking control of Bukavu by tomorrow evening.

    Stan: Going for regime change is may be cheaper on paper but will not bring any of what you metion: free and fair elections, professional army and police, end of impunity and corruption.
    That said, there is a need for a regime change but I doubt a regime change initiated by Rwanda and Uganda will be well accepted. What is needed is a Congolese stand up against its oppressing governments not something coming from outside.

    What I see for the moment is "someone" targetting mineral rich territories of North and South Kivu. Also going Bukavu is not really the shortest road to Kinshasa. To Lubumbashi may be...

    It does not change that a debat on military cooperation (from US but also from others) to non democratic regimes in Great Lakes must take place if we want this part of the world to be peaceful.

    The division of DRC is an option several dream of in Great Lakes but also abroad. If that would be benefic to a small minority, I see more problems than solutions in this on the long run. Negotiated Regional agreement seems to be much simplier and feasible and also much cheaper in terms of human life cost.
    But since when do we really care of human lives?

    Concerning MONUSCO... Just don't get me started.

    Carl: A light correction: MONUSCO is present on Goma airport, this does not mean they are the ones in power.

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    Default UN ineffective - surely not?

    The BBC News today had an interview with a UN official in DRC, he explained their role was to support the DRC's armed forces; so if they fled Goma the UN could not act and now they would protect the local population. Not yet found a reference to this interview on the BBC's website.

    Amidst the BBC's reports is this:
    the peacekeepers are perceived as ineffectual, both by the people they are mandated to protect, and by the rebels themselves.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18969062

    From the BBC's UN reporter:
    The DR Congo peacekeepers - known by their acronym Monusco - are authorised to use force to protect civilians and support Congolese army operations against rebel groups and militias competing for control of mineral wealth in the lawless east of the country.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20422340

    What a bizarre situation for the UN to be. Doubtless the result of a mandate decided in New York and after discussions with the troop contributors.

    Incidentally the majority are from the Indian sub-continent; tbeen he UN data has not updated since May 2011:http://monusco.unmissions.org/Defaul...language=en-US
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    I love it when a thread goes weird with primary source input.

    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    What I see for the moment is "someone" targetting mineral rich territories of North and South Kivu. Also going Bukavu is not really the shortest road to Kinshasa. To Lubumbashi may be...
    Cui bono? The Chinese have alot to lose if the current government can't make good on their contracts.

    Golly, what's down near Lubumbashi?

    China has called for talks between related parties to solve the crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) where refugees are fleeing a rebel-captured city. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying made the appeal Wednesday at a press briefing when commenting on the deterioration of the security situation in the eastern part of the DR Congo, after rebels captured a provincial capital.She said talks should be based on respecting and protecting the African country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
    http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/745698.shtml


    Meanwhile,

    Goma's fall: Could UN troops in Congo have done more to prevent it?

    The ease Tuesday with which rebels overran Goma, one of DR Congo's largest cities, underscores UN peacekeepers' 'difficult problem': their limited mandate.
    In the days before Goma fell, Monusco said that it sent helicopters to open fire on rebel positions to try to slow or halt their advance.
    UN helicopter gunships flew 17 sorties, firing 500 rockets and four missiles in the defence of the town, the United Nations said on Wednesday in a statement giving its account of the battle. Two South African peacekeepers were injured, it added.
    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Afric...-to-prevent-it
    Last edited by AdamG; 11-21-2012 at 07:50 PM.
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  10. #690
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    Stan: Going for regime change is may be cheaper on paper but will not bring any of what you mention: free and fair elections, professional army and police, end of impunity and corruption.
    That said, there is a need for a regime change but I doubt a regime change initiated by Rwanda and Uganda will be well accepted. What is needed is a Congolese stand up against its oppressing governments not something coming from outside.
    Hey M-A,
    I may not have made myself clear with the above post. I wanted to say that no amount of paper or money will bring about what the Congolese have ever yet to have. They did enjoy such privileges during the colonial days, but, for obvious reasons the politicians were not happy with that. I certainly was not advocating a regime change from any foreign entity. You are absolutely correct - only the Congolese, all 70 million, are the only ones capable of change that they can live with.

    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    Also going Bukavu is not really the shortest road to Kinshasa. To Lubumbashi may be...
    Even by 707 Bukavu to Kin was almost impossible !
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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Incidentally the majority are from the Indian sub-continent; tbeen he UN data has not updated since May 2011:http://monusco.unmissions.org/Defaul...language=en-US
    David,
    Not sure if this is what you were looking for regarding UN data

    Regards, Stan
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  12. #692
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    Carl: A light correction: MONUSCO is present on Goma airport, this does not mean they are the ones in power.
    You are of course right and I stand corrected. They stay in their areas. What a sight that would be, the M23 unit that the attack helos hit may be camped out at the airport right next to the ramp where those helos are parked.

    This is a question for Stan and M-A and anybody else. Let's say M23 takes Bukavu. Then Rwanda would have all the land surrounding Lake Kivu. Now if they decided they wanted to hang on to that and not give it back, would anybody care and actually put any pressure on them to give it back? The FARDC certainly couldn't do anything about it. My question isn't about whether it would be right or wrong or wise or unwise it is about practicability of the thing. If Rwanda decided to keep that part of the Congo, would anybody care or make any real effort to make them give it back?

    Oh I meant to add, I liked Bukavu just about as much as I disliked Goma. They aren't all that far apart but it just didn't seem as menacing.
    Last edited by carl; 11-21-2012 at 08:18 PM.
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    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    To understand the actual situation, I recommand to read those 3 doc:

    The last report from the UN panel of experts
    http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc...bol=S/2012/843

    The report on M23 CNDP roots from Jason Stearn
    http://riftvalley.net/resources/file...20CNDP-M23.pdf

    The ICG report on M23 and roots causes of its creation
    http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/region...on-failed.aspx

    With the 3 of them you can make your idea of what is the situation, who are the M23 and what they try to achieve.
    None of those reports have all the truth and everyone is invited to pick what he believes is the best bite of each of those reports and make his mind.

  14. #694
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Carl,
    My personal opinion is total stalemate. Even back in the 80s when we gave the DRC USN swift ships to patrol lake Kivu, supposedly against Rwandan trade, all the Zairian government in Kinshasa did was complain. They had the USG to back all that whining though.

    M23 has roughly 1,000 men, women and children. You can't hold Goma and travel on foot or jeep to Bukavu and take it too (and then hold it). Running through a small city and declaring it yours is strange. Not sure how this all pans out but I can't see approx. 500 staying in Goma and holding it while the other 500 march to Bukavu and take it, and, hold it. At that point you have little left to walk onward to K-town or Lubumbashi, or wherever.

    I like this passage from M-A's links. Great idea full of thought, but the current aid suspensions from most of us is so minuscule that it's not even worth thinking about. If the USG turned off the 2 million this year that would hurt. So instead, we turned off 200K in military-related aid. Geez that must of hurt

    If international donors and African mediators persist in managing the crisis rather than solving it, it will be impossible to avoid such repetitive cycles of rebellions in the Kivus and the risk of large-scale violence will remain. Instead, to finally resolve this conflict, it is essential that Rwanda ends its involvement in Congolese affairs and that the reconstruction plan and the political agreements signed in the Kivus are properly implemented. For these things to happen Western donors should maintain aid suspension against Rwanda until the release of the next report of the UN group of experts, in addition to issuing a clear warning to the Congolese authorities that they will not provide funding for stabilisation and institutional support until the government improves political dialogue and governance in both the administration and in the army in the east, as recommended by Crisis Group on several previous occasions.
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    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Now it's getting weird for real but here comes the solution:

    Museveni, Kagame demand M23 rebels leave Goma
    In solidarity with the Congolese people and their counterparts, President Yoweri Museveni and President Kagame made it clear that even if there were legitimate grievances by the mutinying group known as the M23, they cannot accept expansion of this war or entertain the idea of overthrowing the legitimate government of the DRC or undermining its authority. Therefore, the M23 rebel group must immediately stop its offensive and pull out of Goma. A plan to this end is being communicated to them.
    http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/6374...eave-goma.html

    As Stan just said: M23 does not have the capacities human and logistic to hold even Goma. According to MONUSCO and several credible sources, when M23 launched the first wave of the offensive on thursday 15, they were 500 and lost 150 men. They were finished.
    On saturday they suddently became 2500/3000 men strong with heavy artillery, night googles and anti aircraft weapons... "someone" was helping. (See my previous post to make your mind on who).
    And now they are back at less than 350 men and alone...

    Diplomacy has his ways...
    Last edited by M-A Lagrange; 11-21-2012 at 10:37 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    David, not sure if this is what you were looking for regarding UN data

    Regards, Stan
    Stan,

    I started there and then looked for details, hence my link.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Humanitarian suffering set to worsen across eastern Congo following fall of Goma, Oxfam warns
    “The world is watching Goma but there are many towns and villages across eastern Congo completely forgotten and run by predatory men with guns. Across vast areas, people are stranded with little or no protection from security services. As the violence intensifies the UN must do all it can to protect Congolese civilians caught in the middle. Women and men have suffered too much for too long; they want security and the chance to get on with their lives. They must not be ignored.”
    http://www.oxfamamerica.org/press/pr...medium=twitter

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    Please what did the Congolese Army do with all its AFRICOM training?

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Please what did the Congolese Army do with all its AFRICOM training?
    Hey Kingjaja,

    According to this, a lot of money went into specific training and looks great on paper.

    U.S. Africa Command provides training to the Congolese Armed Forces, focusing especially on the areas of rule of law, respect for human rights and developing leadership skills. It has also trained the 391st light infantry battalion, which was subsequently deployed to LRA-affected areas of the DRC. In addition, AFRICOM provides humanitarian assistance aimed at countering sexual and gender-based violence.
    But then, similar to what all Western powers witnessed as far back as 1985, hungry soldiers are not the way to go..

    “By noon, they’ve reached their training threshold,” said Lt. Drew Giacomucci, a U.S. sailor based in Rota, Spain, who is helping train Congolese troops in de-mining techniques.

    For example, in September, when the U.S. stopped providing food for the battalion at the camp, transferring that responsibility to the Congolese government, meals abruptly dropped from three a day to just one.

    Lt. Col. John Pierre Molengo, the commander of the Kisangani camp, downplayed the significance of the food and salary problems, instead blaming U.S. troops who introduced a standard that is difficult to match.
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    Stan,

    If you remember, I talked about this many months ago. We've seen it in Mali and now in Congo DRC. Africa's problems are not "security related", they are economic/political.

    No amount of training will help.

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