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Old 07-05-2016   #144
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Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 813

Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
At a recent conference @ Oxford University, hosted by Pembroke College, entitled 'The Lure of Jihad: Propaganda & the Construction of Jihadist Identities' amidst the presentations was one talk that fits here: 'Emirate or Caliphate? Competing Calls to Jihad in the North Caucasus Insurgency' by Mark Youngman, of Birmingham University.

In the potted history given he pointed out that:
  1. The 2007 proclamation of a Caucasus Emirate was a victory of the jihadists over the nationalists;
  2. The split in Syria of the JMA, a Chechen group, in late 2013, was quickly replicated in the North Caucasus. This was followed by the Emirate being significantly weakened and then in July 2015 an ISIS Wilayah was proclaimed;
  3. This declaration was very dubious, with virtually no media explanation and no explanation how this would affect the domestic situation.
In a discussion it was suggested that the "split" was inspired by the FSB. This was supported by the first IS statement appearing on a website the FSB ran! It suits the FSB's purpose that all their opponents are IS.
Putin's approach in Chechnya worked because he was able to co-opt a major rebel faction and enable it to subdue the restive republic, not unlike how the US-led coalition worked with the Northern Alliance in 2001 against the Taliban. Of course victory is never complete and the Kadyrovtsi and Russian security forces will be playing whack-a-mole in that rugged country until the end days.

The dual Syrian and Iraqi Civil Wars provided the perfect safety valve for the build up of Islamist tension in the Caucasus, and the Russian are rumored to have facilitated the jihadi trail to Nusra and Daesh where these fighters could be bombed by the Syrians, Iraqis, Russians and Americans, turn on each other or be taken out of the game by other rebel factions. This tactic was tried by Bashar Al-Assad during the Iraq War, although it only deferred the problem...

See here from Jamestown on Caucasian Radicalization:
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