Syria: a civil war (closed)

[davidbfpo]

Looking for information on Syria yesterday I found this Us-hosted website:

The Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies (SCPSS) is an independent nongovernmental studies center. SCPSS mission is to educate readers and activists about the Syrian Arab Republic from political, economic, social and strategic perspectives.

Link:http://www.scpss.org/index.php?pid=1

Another blogsite is:http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/

[Tukhachevskii]

Sorry, that should be RUSI

Hama Rules: the resilience of the Syrian Army

What Ends a War? The Limits of Bosnia-Syria Parallels


Popular Uprising in Syria: Beware of the Henchmen from Within

[BayonetBrant]

Did you guys see where the Russians are now sending troops to Syria?

http://grognews.blogspot.com/2012/03...-to-syria.html

[Rex Brynen]

Did you guys see where the Russians are now sending troops to Syria?

It looks like it is a tiny protection detail for the tanker. To me it signals that the Russians don't feel entirely safe in Tartous (which may be sensible, given that the FSA has started attacks against some military facilities, sabotage, "sniping" with AT-13s and AT-14s, etc).

[davidbfpo]

the rebellion goes on, for longer than a year now and linked is the latest IISS commentary by their Middle East (Syria) expert following the Istanbul Conference:http://iissvoicesblog.wordpress.com/...till-hesitant/

Some acute phrasing:

Feeding the narrative of Assad’s impending doom (in effect, winning the propaganda war) would do more to encourage defections.

[Bob's World]

So, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are all providing money to "pay the salaries of Sunni freedom fighters" ( translation, "hire mercenaries") to help overthrow the minority Alawite (Shia related) Assad regime.

I think Assad is responding completely inappropriately to these revolts, and should be seeking to bring community leaders to the table, listen to the reasonable concerns of the people and implement a true program of governmental reform.

But these Sunni leaders don't likely want to see better governance in Syria any more than they wanted to see better governance in Iraq. Bad for the business of autocratic rule in their own countries. This appears to be an effort to use this opportunity to expand Sunni rule in the region and to elevate some peer in their own image. We should not look at this as a good thing. It is just a different bad thing.

[Dayuhan]

I think Assad is responding completely inappropriately to these revolts, and should be seeking to bring community leaders to the table, listen to the reasonable concerns of the people and implement a true program of governmental reform.

That might have been a reasonable prescription at the start of the affair, but it's way beyond that point now, and the last thing the US should be doing is proposing a solution that would leave Assad in power... or for that matter proposing any solution at all, since there's no point in making proposals you aren't willing to stand behind.

This appears to be an effort to use this opportunity to expand Sunni rule in the region and to elevate some peer in their own image. We should not look at this as a good thing. It is just a different bad thing.

A good thing or a bad thing for who? For us it needn't be good or bad, as it's really not our business... neither is it our business to be telling others what we think is good or bad for them.

[Uboat509]

So, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are all providing money to "pay the salaries of Sunni freedom fighters" ( translation, "hire mercenaries") to help overthrow the minority Alawite (Shia related) Assad regime.

It probably has less to do with religion than with authoritarian regimes wanting to buy their way into the good graces of the rebels in Syria. The writing is on the wall. Assad will fall at some point. All three of those states would very much like to contain the Arab Spring in Syria lest it spread to their states.

I think Assad is responding completely inappropriately to these revolts, and should be seeking to bring community leaders to the table, listen to the reasonable concerns of the people and implement a true program of governmental reform.

Way too late for that now. Even if Assad were to make a legitimate attempt to reform, the leaders of the uprising will assume that he is doing it because he is weakening. They will smell blood in the water and redouble their efforts. The best outcome that Assad can probably hope for now is a negotiated exit for him and protection for the minority groups in Syria that supported him. Even that is iffy.