Tentative Guidelines for building partner armies post conflict

[Tukhachevskii]

As Tom says, it's very complex, and a lot of the effects are 2nd, 3rd and 4th order in the "civilian" area. Roads in and of themselves shift transportation patterns which cause changes in population settlement (think about how the Interstates effected the US). They also cause shifts in production, consumption and employment patterns which may or may not destabilize an area.

[snipped]

One other effect of introducing tanks into a country is to shift the balance of power, increasing the importance of those who control them in relation to those who don't. [...] so the gathering of tanks may or may not serve to further destabilize a society.

As Tom said, it's complex....

Indeed, in the case of Yemen they got the Chinese to pay and construct their "national road" system. On the outskirts of the city there's even a "Chinese cemetary" built for the Chinese labourers who died during construction. In Sana'a the main overpass over Shari'a Zubayri (sp?) has a large chinese sign over it that I once jokingly commented says "made in china". As for shifting the balance of power that's one of the key "force multipliers" (if you will) that Salah can count on. The sheer ability to move forces by road to (for example) the North vastly improves his attempt to keep his state together yet alone attempt to develop it. Thought he relies upon 10,000+ tribal levies to help with the war he doesn't have to leave the war to them and thus by inserting federal forces can shape both parties actions to his ends (whatever those unfathomable things may be). Conversely, the road network peters out the farther east one gets as does the amount of central government control. They "control" the roads (just barely) and that's about all. Yet the fact they do control the roads means, even though they can't impose central authority, they can influence the tribes by controlling access to the road network (if nothing else, such as education, health services, etc.). Given the produce of the east (fish, Qat and other items) is largely consumed in the west that's a strong plus. Nonethelss, having roads upon which HETT and tanks can travel is ultimately nothing short of useless if you don't have the competent trained crews or forward based CSS units able to operate/maintain tanks effectively (of which Yemen doesn't really have many anyway). I was once meandering down Sharia' Hadha (one of the two main roads in the city) on my way to my local (at the time) Syrian schwarma store for a "sarookh" (Rocket!) when a (apprently) overloaded and barely road-worthy (wheezing, creaking and leaking) Soviet made tank transporter of 1950s vintage rumbled down the road carrying three (and the remains of a fourth) French manufactured AML-90/60 armoured cars each of which had what looked like multiple HMG and RPG strikes. Getting stuff up north may tip the scales in the Yemeni Gov.'s balance but they are useless once they get there (still, at least they can get them back again!!!).