How Insurgencies End

[Outlaw 7]

Robert:

To go back to you comments on the ending of an insurgency. I would actually challenge everyone to think out of the box and look at open source warfare in a far deeper way in that with the insurgency evolutions in Iraq and now in what we are seeing for the evolution of the Taliban and related groups we might in fact be entering the area of 5GW.

Into 5GW
Lind: Whoever is first to recognize, understand, and implement a generational change can gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, a nation that is slow to adapt to generational change opens itself to catastrophic defeat.
Things would be bad enough with just fourth generation opponents but as the research on global guerrillas has borne out, a new more dangerous generation is forming: potentially a 5th generation of warfare. Much of this new generation was derived and accelerated in the cauldron of Iraq, just as the basis for 3rd generation of warfare was proved out in the Spanish Civil war.

What we see is jarring:
• Open source warfare. An ability to decentralize beyond the limits of a single group (way beyond cell structures) using new development and coordination methodologies. This new structure doesn't only radically expand the number of potential participants, it shrinks the group size well below any normal measures of viability. This organizational structure creates a dynamic whereby new entrants can appear anywhere. In London, Madrid, Berlin, and New York.
• Systems disruption. A method of sabotage that goes beyond the simple destruction of physical infrastructure. This method of warfare, which can burst onto the scene as a black swan, uses network dynamics (a new form of leveraged maneuver) to undermine and reorder global systems. It is through this Schumpeterian "creative destruction" that new environments favorable to opposition forces are built (often due to a descent into primary loyalties and pressure from global markets).
• Virtual states (ala Philip Bobbitt). Unlike the guerrilla movements of the past, many of the 4GW forces we are fighting today have found a way to integrate their activities with global "crime." No longer are guerrilla movements or terrorists aimed at taking control of the reigns of the state or merely proxies for states. A new form of economic sustenance has been found. This black globalization is already vast (a GDP of trillions per year), and gains momentum through weakening and disruption of states. This military/economic integration creates a virtuous feedback loop that allows groups to gain greater degrees of independence and financial wealth through the warfare they conduct.

NOTE: Whether you call these developments 4GW on steroids or the start of a 5th generation, it just doesn't matter. Whichever way you cut it, things are developing quickly and in the wrong direction.

Think about it--are we not already seeing this development? Definitely does not fit the COIN or social network analysis models.

[Dayuhan]

Open source warfare. An ability to decentralize beyond the limits of a single group (way beyond cell structures) using new development and coordination methodologies. This new structure doesn't only radically expand the number of potential participants, it shrinks the group size well below any normal measures of viability. This organizational structure creates a dynamic whereby new entrants can appear anywhere. In London, Madrid, Berlin, and New York.

How new is this, really? Didn't we see much the same phenomenon in the cold war? Then, as now, weren't most of these disaggregated groups rendered relatively ineffective by their own lack of training, coordination, and general competence?

I'm not sure I know what buzzwords like 3G, 4G, 5G, open source, etc actually mean, when applied to warfare, and I'm not convinced that I need to care. Circumstances change, as they always have; we need to keep adapting, as always. I'm not convinced that "global guerillas" or a "global insurgency" truly exist, neither am I convinced that developments in technology and globalization necessarily favor the forces of chaos and disorder.

Evolution, yes... as always, but not necessarily revolution.

[Bob's World]

Even TX has gone on record lamenting that he decided to use this "generational" construct in his book.

War has always been about maximizing the tools at hand to win, and certainly the progressive development of informational tools is playing a major part in how warfare is waged for those who do so on behalf of a state, and also for those with less formal organizations.

I hold that at the fundamental, principle level, nothing has changed at all; but new tools do indeed allow for new TTPs and levels of effect for those outside the state system that simply were not possible before.

[William F. Owen]

NOTE: Whether you call these developments 4GW on steroids or the start of a 5th generation, it just doesn't matter. Whichever way you cut it, things are developing quickly and in the wrong direction.

Think about it--are we not already seeing this development? Definitely does not fit the COIN or social network analysis models.

Sorry, this is - with respect - rubbish.

War is not changing. Warfare is not changing as fast as you think or in any way we cannot comprehend. All the things cited are basically without evidence.

• Systems disruption. A method of sabotage that goes beyond the simple destruction of physical infrastructure. This method of warfare, which can burst onto the scene as a black swan, uses network dynamics (a new form of leveraged maneuver) to undermine and reorder global systems. It is through this Schumpeterian "creative destruction" that new environments favorable to opposition forces are built (often due to a descent into primary loyalties and pressure from global markets).

What does this actually mean, in plain English? Please give me a specific example.

The question I constantly pose to the 4GW crowd (and have done to both Lind and Hammes when I met them) is "What is it you guys don't get? Why are you confused?"

Sorry by anyone buying into 4/5GW just seems not to understand the basics.