Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
Are these generic Arabs (in which case the term isn't terribly useful), or do you mean the Palestinians? And why wouldn't this logically apply to Israel's c$3 billion per year? (I don't think it does--I'm just highlighting the logical inference.)

If you mean the Arabs in general, of course, the amount flowing in to Jordan and Egypt increased after signing a peace agreement, and the Palestinians assume it would too. Certainly, every World Bank and IMF analysis that I've ever seen of the Palestinian economy (probably several dozen since 1994) suggests that the economic costs of occupation to the Palestinians (in terms of trade and mobility restrictions) exceeds the economic benefits of foreign aid.

By contrast, the Syrians don't receive significant amounts of external aid any more, and certainly have no economic interest in perpetuating the conflict--rather, they have an interest in securing the return of the occupied Golan Heights.

If one examine the actual negotiating record in either 2000-01 or 2007-08 (the only two periods of actual permanent status negotiations), I think its rather hard to conclude that either side didn't want a deal. Rather, their views of what that deal should include were still too far apart for a deal to be reached, and external mediation was very poorly done indeed.
The economic costs of occupation? LUL WUT! What great economic tiger is being withheld? IMF and World Bank analysis is based upon the assumption that something will be created, but they have no idea what. The fact is the complete withdrawl from the West Bank would have the same result as it did in Gaza. A civil war and degradation of the conditions for the people.

The withdrawl ended in Gaza, boy, things got better there, didn't they?

Egypt received essentially no foreign aid prior to Camp David from the West. There was nothing to lose.
The 3B to Israel is specific to camp david. We bought the Sinai from Israel and gave it to Egypt. Why we pay Egypt is the mystery.
And by Arabs, yes, the arab world. They receive the great benefit of a focal point of blame. The 2 minute hate the whole arab world can focus their wrath upon. Even Jordan and Egypt, despite the nominal peace accords, still whip up their jew-hating frenzy on a regular basis. All this made possible by the lack of a comprehensive peace. Give that up?

We have the true international welfare state. wholely dependent upon the world's good graces and able to beat themselves with the martyr whip. At best you would have another dicatorial pariah state in the mold of Syria. At worst you would have lebanon of the 70s.

No matter what israel offers, the arabs will never accept comprehensive peace. The established states neither want it or need it (indeed, the benefit by having the conflict on-going is tangible) Hamas and the PLO benefit both by profit grabbing (Arafat did quite well financially) and by never being responsible.