The subject of Iran’s role in Iraq—what it is, and what it should be—is a hotly contested one. Some analysts stress the role of Shiite identity and religion as a unifying bond between Iran’s approximately 60 million Shiites and the 15 million strong Shiite majority in Iraq, mostly concentrated in Baghdad and areas south. A few suggest the existence of even vaster schemes of cooperation, with Shiite solidarity extending from Iran via Iraq to the Alawite minority that rules Syria and into the south of Lebanon, which is also dominated by Shiites—a “Shiite crescent” that seems ideally positioned to dominate the entire Middle East through its hold on strategic territory and with its control of combined oil resources that rival those of Saudi Arabia. At the same time, other scholars reject the idea of any particular closeness between the Shiites of Iran and those of Iraq. These analysts tend to stress the Arabness of the Shiites of Iraq—who in many cases descend from recently settled nomadic tribes whose conversion to Shiism took place within the past couple of centuries—and point to historical facts such as the loyal Shiite participation on the Iraqi side in the eight-year war against Iran in the 1980s as proof of the Iraqiness of the Shiites and as a formative experience in its own right. Often, this kind of perspective goes hand in hand with a view that Iraqi Shiites are actively hostile to the model of government instituted in Iran after the 1979 revolution, and that they in particular despise the idea of clerics holding political office. It has even been suggested that the current government of Nuri al-Maliki, after its turn against certain internal Shiite contenders, constitutes a contemporary example of what this attitude to Iran means in practice.
In this report, a synthesis of these two positions is offered. On the one hand, the Iraqi identity of the Shiites living in the country seems firmly established at the popular level. Historically, the Shiites of Iraq have always shied away from all kinds of schemes that would create a sectarian enclave south of Baghdad or unite the Shiite portions of the country with Iran, and the spectacular failure of the scheme to create a federal Shiite entity in post-2003 Iraq (which was tentatively launched in the summer of 2005) seems to attest to the endurance of an “Iraq first” attitude among the Shiite population. However, on the other hand, the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 set in motion a formidable process of upheaval and such tremendous pressures from the outside that internal Shiite elite politics in Iraq changed beyond recognition and shifted away from its historical trajectory.
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