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  1. #1
    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Pseudo-Histories of the Iraq War

    14 October Washington Times commentary - Pseudo-Histories of the Iraq War by Victor Davis Hanson.

    Three recent books about the "fiasco" in Iraq -- "Cobra II" by Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, "State of Denial" by Bob Woodward and just plain "Fiasco" by Tom Ricks -- have attracted a lot of attention, and sales. All three well-written exposes repeat the now well-known argument that our government's incompetence and arrogance have nearly ensured U.S. failure in birthing democracy in Iraq.

    It's worth noting, though, that many of the authors' critical portraits rely on private conversations and anonymous sources. The most damning informants in these books are never identified, and so can't be questioned.

    The authors, as journalists, are well aware that after the New York Times' problems with Jayson Blair and other high-profile media scandals, the public no longer necessarily accepts as gospel what reporters write. That perhaps explains their and others' apparent adaptation of scholarly methods. Often these days journalists mimic the footnoting of historians -- giving the impression their reporting is history documented by verifiable primary and secondary sources also available to the reader.

    Indeed, the verifiability of source material is what distinguishes history from hearsay -- and what distinguishes the genre from journalism or first-person recollections. Since the time of the historian Thucydides -- who not only recorded what speakers said, but, more controversially, made them voice what he thought they might or ought to have said -- historians have developed protocols to ensure credibility. Whether or not historians use footnotes or citations, they at least now agree to draw on information that can be checked by others, who will determine how skillfully, honestly or completely such sources were employed...

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    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    I'm reading Ricks now, and find that I am in agreement with the pseudo-history critique. For me, perhaps the most interesting comparison is between Ricks and Naylor, who did a very good job of following historical procedures when writing his history of Operation Anaconda. Naylor worked with anonymous sources as well, but he at least gives them partial names and makes it clear in his endnotes that he retained the proper level of documentation. He also doesn't structure his entire narrative around unnamed sources, which I am finding is all too common with Ricks.

    Does this mean that Ricks is without value? No, but it does leave me questioning how he "spins" his sources much more than Naylor did. The more I have to do that, the less overall value I find in a source from a historical standpoint and the more it becomes a sort of IO exercise for me.

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    The Human Terrain System: A CORDS for the 21st Century

    http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/C...Oct06/kipp.pdf

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    Default Problems Afflict U.S. Army Program To Advise Iraqis

    18 October Wall Street Journal (Paid subscription required) - Problems Afflict U.S. Army Program To Advise Iraqis by Greg Jaffe.

    One of the biggest shocks for Lt. Col. Nick Demas and his troops came before they even deployed to Iraq.

    The colonel's soldiers, most of them inexperienced reservists from Maryland, had been tapped to serve as advisers to the Iraqi army. Their job was to live with, train and mentor an Iraqi force buffeted by poor morale, desertions and corruption.

    President Bush has touted such advisory teams as key to the U.S. strategy for stabilizing Iraq and bringing American troops home. So Col. Demas and his troops expected some of the best instruction the Army had to offer. What they got was a "phenomenal waste of time," the colonel wrote from Iraq last fall, in a report to his superiors.

    "In my 28 years of military service I have never seen such an appalling approach to training," he wrote. "Nowhere else in the Army system would this have been acceptable." His soldiers received only a few hours of instruction in Arabic language, Iraqi culture and advising foreign forces, says Col. Demas, who had previously served in Special Forces units...

    Senior U.S. military officers in Iraq and the Pentagon say their primary focus is getting Iraqi forces to take over more of the fighting as quickly as possible so U.S. forces can pull back. The 10- to 12-man advisory teams are central to that effort.

    In recent weeks, Army officials overseeing the advisory program have begun to acknowledge the gap between the Army's words and deeds. This summer, after two years of biting reviews, the Army rushed to revamp the training advisers receive. It also has begun to assign more experienced troops to advisory teams. "I think we are going to be doing it much, much better than what you have seen in the past," says Gen. Richard Cody, the Army's vice chief of staff.

    Internal Army reviews and interviews with dozens of advisers show that, thus far, the Army hasn't treated the advisory program as a priority. The job has often fallen to the military's less seasoned second team: reservists, guardsmen and retirees called back to active duty. A 48-page Army study, finished in May and marked "For Official Use Only," concluded that 10- to 12-man advisory teams are too small and "do not have the experience to advise in the various areas they are assigned."...

    To date, the U.S. has trained and equipped about 307,800 Iraqi army and police forces, up from 196,600 a year ago. But three years into the war, these Iraqi forces don't seem to be improving fast enough to curb surging violence. Daily attacks in Iraq have risen to record levels, and attrition among Iraqi forces remains high. In areas like the restive al Anbar Province, Iraqi units have, on average, only 55% of the soldiers they are supposed to, senior U.S. military officials say.

    Other factors, of course, are also contributing to the violence. Centuries-old sectarian grudges and political turmoil are feeding unrest. Both must be addressed through some form of reconciliation, military officials say.

    For many advisers, the growing turmoil has been frustrating. "I know we've made a difference. But the insurgency has also become better, more lethal and more capable in my time here," wrote Capt. Phillip Carter, who advised Iraqi police, in an email last month as he prepared to return home. "In theory things should get better with the development of capable Iraqi Army and police units. That's not happening."...

    Top Army officials also are trying to change a culture that discourages good officers from taking advisory posts. Over the past decade, the path to success has been through conventional combat jobs in big brigades. Gen. Peter Schoomaker, the Army's top officer, uses a track analogy to describe the problem. The Army, he says, is full of specialists, or "single-event people." To prevail in today's wars, he says, he needs "pentathletes" with a broader range of experiences.

    Last month Gen. Schoomaker's vice chief of staff stressed in a memo to Army officers that serving on an advisory team was "the Army's No. 1 personnel priority" and was exactly the kind of broadening experience the Army chief had been touting.

    To fix the advisory program, some military officials say sweeping institutional change is needed. "When there is a limited pool of people for both kinds of jobs -- combat and advisory -- it's clear where the best people will go," says Dale Andrade, a counterinsurgency specialist at the Army's Center of Military History. "The military will always keep its best and brightest in traditionally important combat jobs. Only when forced will this change."

    One option under consideration is to double the number of advisers to about 7,000, from about 3,500, by tearing apart some traditional combat brigades and assigning officers and senior soldiers to advisory teams. That would ensure that some of the Army's best officers would take advisory jobs. It would also allow Army officials to double the size of the teams -- which the officials say are too small -- to about 20 troops each.

    But doing so would require a change in mind-set for the Army, where training centers and personnel systems are built almost entirely around the 4,000-soldier brigades. It would also be risky. As the number of big U.S. combat brigades decreased, Iraqi units and their advisers would have to pick up the security slack...
    Much more at the link for those who have a paid WSJ subscription or access to DoD's Current News Service (Early Bird)...

  5. #5
    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    Default Thanks for posting this

    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    The Human Terrain System: A CORDS for the 21st Century

    http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/C...Oct06/kipp.pdf
    Kaur, it's a *very* interesting article. My gut feeling, at the moment, is that the proposed HTS is wonderfully designed to sell politically to Washington, and will be an unmitigated disaster during implementation. Here's why

    The core building block of the system will be a five-person Human Terrain Team (HTT) that will be embedded in each forward-deployed brigade or regimental staff. The HTT will provide the commander with experienced officers, NCOs, and civilian social scientists trained and skilled in cultural data research and analysis.
    Two points are obvious in this statement. First, where are they going to get the trained analysts? They are listed as MA/PhD in Cultural Anthropology or Sociology with "Priority selection will go to those who have published, studied, lived, and taught in the region." This is going to spark off all sorts of anger and reaction in the academic community about spying. If we go back to the time of Vietnam, which is where they seem to be coming from, the riots on the campuses then will seem mild in comparison.

    The second point is operational. The HTS will be embedded at the Brigade level. This will, IMHO, give some brigade commanders a feeling that they have met their "warm and fuzzy" requirements, but I don't see it actually doing that much. Honestly, if I was designing he system, I would have a brigade level co-ordination team, but I would also have people either embedded in or cross-trained at the company level - battalion at the least. I think that this second point ties in to one of their core claims:

    At the same time, to overcome the kinds of problems now typically encountered when in-place units attempt to transfer knowledge about their area of operations upon relief in place, HTS will provide for the complete transfer of HTT personnel together with the HTT database to the incoming commander upon transfer of authority. This will give the incoming commander and unit immediate “institutional memory” about the people and culture of its area of operations.
    Again, on the surface this sounds good but, if you look a little deeper, it is a piece of techno-babble. Five people at teh brigade level will maintain institutional memory? Get real!

    Again, the basic concept is good, but the operationalization is designed for failure. First off, as many here have noted, information flows through personal relationships, not a relationship between an Iraqi or an Afghan and a database. This *might* be overcome if the program was operationalized at battalion or company level where, as part of the training / deployment cycle, units who are about to take over can access the information on "their" area several months in advance, follow it up regularly, and establish personal relationships while out of the field.

    One final point I want to make about the program as discussed in that article, comes from one of the authors' suggestions for what to do with the database:

    Data will cover such subjects as key regional personalities, social structures, links between clans and families, economic issues, public communications, agricultural production, and the like.....

    Other U.S. Government agencies will also have access to the central database. And finally, to facilitate economic development and security, the compiled databases will eventually be turned over to the new governments of Iraq and Afghanistan to enable them to more fully exercise sovereignty over their territory and to assist with economic development.
    [emphasis added]
    Great! What disciple of Stalin thought this up? Did they even consider the effects on the supposed target populations (Iraq and Afghanistan) of the existence of a database that lists every act of "collaboration" with coalition forces?!? Haven't these people even heard of hackers? Have they considered the "home front" reaction to creating such a database?

    I will freely admit that I am taking the worst possible reaction to this idea. After all, I always thought that it was best to be ready with a GoTH plan if necessary

    Okay, one final, nasty, comment and I'll leave it alone.

    The HTT’s tool kit is Mapping Human Terrain (MAP-HT) software, an automated database and presentation tool that allows teams to gather, store, manipulate, and provide cultural data from hundreds of categories.
    Two quotes (actually paraphrases) come to mind - "Mirror, mirror on the wall" is the first. This concept is, when all is said and done, being sold as a magic bullet solution. The second is - "They may have won all the wars, but we had all the good PowerPoints". If this goes ahead as planned, I may just have to filk a version of this (with apologies to Tom Lehrer).

    Marc
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

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    Council Member CaptCav_CoVan's Avatar
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    Marc:
    I have downloaded and read the same article. I think this is an academic frosting as a solution. Perhaps we should adapt some of the tactics of the French, well documented in Dave Galula's "Pacification in Algeria: 1956 to 1958" , which can be downloaded from the RAND website, and other lessons of Vietnam cirula 1951. The French put French officers and NCO in charge of Vietnamese units, but unfortuately did not carry through with succession planning. As a result, there were few capable Vietnamese officers when the French left. Maybe this is worth a try in Iraq since the level of the Iraqi units is far below the technical proficency we experienced with the Vietnamese Marine in 1967. If you would like first-hand description of experiences of those of us who were COVANs in Vietnam, take a look at “Communion in Conflict: The Marine Advisor Vietnam 1954-1973” (Fairfax, VA: USMC Advisor Publications, 2006) Volume III by Thomas D. Affourit, especially the narrative by Colonel Croizant, the first Marine advisor. This harks back to the constabulary efforts in Nicaragua, Cuba , and the Banana Wars. It may be worth a look...
    Last edited by CaptCav_CoVan; 10-18-2006 at 02:40 PM.

  7. #7
    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    Default Academic frostings

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptCav_CoVan View Post
    Marc:
    I have downloaded and read the same article. I think this is an academic frosting as a solution.
    Honestly, I was really and truly mad after reading that article. Outside of the fact that, IMHO, it just won't work, it also breaches every code of academic ethics (we can always argue later whether or not that is an oxymoron ) and, while it may sell in Washington, it will just make matters much worse on the political home front.

    Sorry about the rant, but sometimes I just feel like performing some radical surgery on some people to remove unused portions of their anatomy - in this case, their brains! (Sheesh, I really am steamed about this! Time to chill)

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptCav_CoVan View Post
    Perhaps we should adapt some of the tactics of the Frech, well dpocumented in in Dave Galula's "Pacification in Algeria: 1956 to 1958" , which can be downloaded from the RAND website and other lessons of Vietnam cirula 1951. The Frech put French officers and NCO in charge of Vietnamese units, but unfortuately did not carry through with succession planning. As a result, there were few capable Vietnamese officers when the French left. If you would like first-hand description of experiences of those of us who were COVANs in Vietnam, take a look at “Communion in Conflict: The Marine Advisor Vietnam 1954-1973” (Fairfax, VA: USMC Advisor Publications, 2006) Volume III by Thomas D. Affourit, especially the narrative by Colonel Croizant, the first Marine advisor. This harks back to the constabulary efforts in Nicaragua, Cuba , and the Banana Wars. It may be worth a look...
    I'll try and track down a copy and read it.

    Steve, you raise a really good point about whether or not people would like to be reffered to as "Human Terrain". I would seriously doubt it . And when you say

    Two fuzzy civilian types and mid-grade officers or enlisted led by a major or LtCol from any available branch? May not go over well with the more enthused combat arms types.
    I think you are right on the money. Let's face it - most of us academic types (Selil obviously excepted) just don't have the training and, frequently, the mind-set to handle combat situations. Hey, our idea of an intense firefight is a cocktail party at the faculty club. Man, they are rough

    Marc
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

  8. #8
    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    Default This was disappointing....

    I would have expected something better from Grau, honestly. The database idea is especially horrible, since as Marc pointed out it raises all sorts of security and later use questions that don't seem to have been thought through. Even if you toss out the home front issue, the operational impact of what happens when (not if) that database falls into the wrong hands is stunning. Remember the whole VA fiasco? "Uh...sorry, sir...but one of our translators took the entire HTT database home on his laptop and someone stole it."

    Set at the company level, with the same level of support and NO comprehensive database (as these often turn into solutions in and of themselves instead of tools), and with a better name, this might work. But as currently structured it's not looking too promising.

  9. #9
    i pwnd ur ooda loop selil's Avatar
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    I find this kind of interesting.

    HTS will have reach back connectivity to a network of subject-matter experts now being assembled from throughout the department of Defense, the interagency domain, and academia.
    I can’t imagine that the population of social scientists has suddenly increased substantially within academia. Considering the number of individuals choosing the hard road of social science, those with an interest to work within DOD, those who won’t be considered foreign nationals and thus not suitable, those who speak the language fluently, and the number who “can” work with DOD all three that are left are going to be busy working on other projects.

    I’m imagining a faculty member explaining to the human studies board that his current research/activity is in the employ of the department of defense providing observational and strategic analysis, and tactical information, for the subjugation and manipulation of an indigent foreign population.

    The analyst will be a qualified cultural anthropologist or sociologist competent with geographical imaging software and fluent enough in the local language to perform field research
    Are there are a lot of anthropologists working with GIS?

    Am I wrong in thinking that these are going to be forward deployed individuals? The people filling these billets are going to be forward of the line of departure, and in fact the “focus groups” held by the academic will be direct parts of enculturation and in contact with the population and likely in the environment? If this is the case how is a non-uniformed individual deriving intelligence within a combat zone being viewed by the Geneva Convention?

    In asymmetrical combat environments we already see a significant issue with civilian employees and dealing with the fall out of these non-combatants (who aid and supply the military) getting snatched. How many grey beard pacifist professors getting snatched will it take before the effort of protection overwhelms the value of the intelligence gathering and dissemination?

    Quote Originally Posted by marct
    Let's face it - most of us academic types (Selil obviously excepted) just don't have the training and, frequently, the mind-set to handle combat situations. Hey, our idea of an intense firefight is a cocktail party at the faculty club. Man, they are rough
    I’m quite allergic to violence and find that getting fatter, older, and balder to be a worthy life long goal. I told a certain flag officer I was to old, fat, and out of shape to ever be in the service again. He told me they (the Marines) could fix two of those three problems easily and I wouldn’t be getting any younger.

  10. #10
    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    I agree with your critique of this article, Marc. Teams like this should be down at the company level, with perhaps a coordinating team at brigade level to give them some staff clout. The company teams should be at least five people strong, with twice that at brigade level so that there are enough experienced "boots on the ground" at that level to keep their concerns in front of the commander. I'm also not sure if the proposed composition of the HTT (and would those being "studied" really want to be known as "Human Terrain?" That's maybe another question for another post... ) would give it enough credibility within the brigade to make it effective. Two fuzzy civilian types and mid-grade officers or enlisted led by a major or LtCol from any available branch? May not go over well with the more enthused combat arms types.

    As an aside, I found some of the historical assertions interesting. When they say
    it is hard to argue with statistics from that era
    when referring to CORDS in Vietnam, those same statistics are the subject of debate among historians. Some assert that CORDS only worked where it would naturally work, and didn't work in areas where it was needed.

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    Council Member CaptCav_CoVan's Avatar
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    One of the adavntages of CORD, which was really coming togther in 1968 under General Abrahms, was the whole issue of unity of command of all of the pieces (military, economic, political, NGO, CIA and gaggle of organizations). I had just finished my third tour and had left Vietnam so I did not have an opportunity to observe this first hand. I do know that when I was a COVAN there were all kinds of people in different dress and uniform with their own agendas running around in Saigon, and sometime in the field,bumping into each other, which made accomplishing the mission difficult.

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