I think Americans do overestimate our ability to influence others, as well as our overall centrality in the politics of other states. However, especially when it comes to our client states, the U.S. can often play a positive role.

Taiwan and South Korea are two examples directly relevant to my own personal experience. Both countries experienced peaceful transfers of power to opposition parties. In our own hemisphere. El Salvador recently elected an FMLN President with no threat of violence from a military which killed thousands fighting the FMLN. The Turkish military has subordinated itself to civilian authority in a similar way, partly due to EU and U.S. pressure. The Bush Administration successfully orchestrated a democratic transition in Pakistan, from Musharraf to a civilian government.

As the example of Pakistan shows, the departure of the dictator hardly means that the problems of the country end. But at the very least it means that the progress can, hopefully, get started.