Abdel Bari Atwan's article reads like a real Arab nationalist. And he seems to have good reasons for pessimism.

Entering any contest without a guiding purpose is an indulgence, diletantism or whatever almost anyone bothers to call it. Going early is a tactic but at least it is a concept of operation with some prospect of success. Going strong demonstrates real sense of purpose and sometimes a form of evangelism. Possessing an order of battle without exercising it is exhibitionism. Holding back massive resources can be a problem because once committed momentum becomes a form of inertia.

US strategies as expressed in its OOB are generally well understood but its current concept of operation seems to be maintaining the OOB because the US has forgotten – or perhaps has never understood - how to exercise a graduated response. One concept for special forces in FID and FMA is base camp warfare and identifying civilians from protagonists with limited support from main force units. The parallel concept in FMA and FMA-plus is that main force units – most of whose financial and social interaction should be kept well away from foreign civilians – are committed to continuous and intensive harrying of the opponent with little recuperation time spent off-line or behind some wire.

FMA-plus is when an opponent competing by proxy provides a convenient sanctuary that is then subjected to rigorous blockade if not destruction. Modern warfare is when an opponent has not managed to employ a foreign proxy and has not managed to stir up much dissent in your home.

The Middle East cannot make up its collective mind. NATO and the UN are something else again. So who else can the Arabs turn to ? And there the US will eventually go again because at least it can agree on one thing. Going is almost always worth doing even if the US always manages to make some basic mistakes such as disbanding the defeated Iraqi army in already conquered Iraq.