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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I don't think these governments have the slightest interest in our advice, or in our meddling, which is closer to what they would call it. Probably they wouldn't tell us that, but would listen very seriously, promise to think deeply on what we said, then go on doing what they want.

    We've a very limited capacity, if any, to change how others govern.
    However we have seen that the U.S. does have the capacity to change how our allies govern - especially when we have good military-to-military relations. The Philippines, El Salvador, South Korea, Taiwan, Pakistan, and Turkey have all made substantive political moves towards democracy in part due to U.S. pressure and influence. In several of those countries, military governments either surrendered power or acquiesced to a reduced political role and the election of former enemies. How does this not qualify as changes in governance?

    I doubt we will know the full picture for a long time, but I imagine there was not a little behind-the-scenes pressure on the Egyptian military by the Obama Administration as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    However we have seen that the U.S. does have the capacity to change how our allies govern - especially when we have good military-to-military relations. The Philippines, El Salvador, South Korea, Taiwan, Pakistan, and Turkey have all made substantive political moves towards democracy in part due to U.S. pressure and influence. In several of those countries, military governments either surrendered power or acquiesced to a reduced political role and the election of former enemies. How does this not qualify as changes in governance?

    Indeed, The Philippines, Colombia, and El Salvador demonstrate that a combination of political pressure, low profile military engagement, and economic incentives can result in an effective U.S. capacity to change how our allies govern. However, alle these operations had/have one goal: to promote democracy. Until now, our track record on the promotion of democracy in the Middle East is less clear than it was/is in the three aforementioned examples.

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    Marc:

    I continue to monitor the Rage events with a focus on something different.

    We tend to focus not on promoting democracy but on establishing or maintaining nation-state power structures.

    The debate in the Arab world, in my opinion, has, over the last 90 years or so, focused on who gets to control the apparatus of a strong central government descending from the ancient Persian/Greece/Roman empire models, which place sub-national governance/government in a very inferior position easily controlled from above.

    What is fascinating to me about Libya is that, unlike the perennial battle over who gets to be in charge (ultimately creating one form of dictatorship over the previous), is that, with no pre-existing pattern, people are beginning to form, admittedly on an experimental and informal basis) sub-national governance structures.

    The question they raise, which is markedly different from other countries, is not "who?," but "how?," which, I believe is the first crack in a wall that has, for the most part, held Arab peoples back, and diverted their attention from the issues needed to be addressed in more sophisticated and urbanized systems like they once had in Babylon, etc...

    While the results are unpredicatable, in my view, the challenges raised and faced in Libya (free from distortion of anti-imperialism and poverty of resources) are fundamental ones: How do we, as a modern, young Arab society wish to govern ourselves to provide essential services and opportunities?

    The Arab World's future may be re-shaped by these nascent Libyan experiments, which, hopefully will impact all the old, unworkable and externally-derived nation-state systems.

    Notably, in a world of Nation-States, the shell and trappings are needed, but how can sub-national governance open opportunities (maybe not immediately) for Arab self-determination and civic advancement?

    I heard a lady on CNN talking from Benghazi about what she wanted--- greater services, education, opportunities, freedom---voting rights, while perhaps significant vehicles to those ends, where not a front-runner.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve the Planner View Post
    Marc:

    We tend to focus not on promoting democracy but on establishing or maintaining nation-state power structures.

    The debate in the Arab world, in my opinion, has, over the last 90 years or so, focused on who gets to control the apparatus of a strong central government descending from the ancient Persian/Greece/Roman empire models, which place sub-national governance/government in a very inferior position easily controlled from above.

    What is fascinating to me about Libya is that, unlike the perennial battle over who gets to be in charge (ultimately creating one form of dictatorship over the previous), is that, with no pre-existing pattern, people are beginning to form, admittedly on an experimental and informal basis) sub-national governance structures.

    The question they raise, which is markedly different from other countries, is not "who?," but "how?," which, I believe is the first crack in a wall that has, for the most part, held Arab peoples back, and diverted their attention from the issues needed to be addressed in more sophisticated and urbanized systems like they once had in Babylon, etc...

    While the results are unpredicatable, in my view, the challenges raised and faced in Libya (free from distortion of anti-imperialism and poverty of resources) are fundamental ones: How do we, as a modern, young Arab society wish to govern ourselves to provide essential services and opportunities?

    The Arab World's future may be re-shaped by these nascent Libyan experiments, which, hopefully will impact all the old, unworkable and externally-derived nation-state systems.

    Notably, in a world of Nation-States, the shell and trappings are needed, but how can sub-national governance open opportunities (maybe not immediately) for Arab self-determination and civic advancement?

    I heard a lady on CNN talking from Benghazi about what she wanted--- greater services, education, opportunities, freedom---voting rights, while perhaps significant vehicles to those ends, where not a front-runner.
    Steve,

    The nation-state has been a somewhat problematic concept in the Middle East. The current borders have been drawn by European colonial powers. Pan-Arabists, Islamists, and Arab Nationalists all claimed to hate and reject them. So, in theory you are right. Because current borders have questionable legitimacy, it should be possible to change them. However, this is not what happened in reality. "Very soon after gaining independence, new leaders concentrated all power in their own person. They set up single-party political systems, military dictatorships, or absolute monarchies. Almost all of them quickly abandoned the idea of Pan-Arabism and sanctified the borders they once claimed to be artificially drawn to divide them." http://www.amazon.com/Stalemate-Conf..._at_ep_dpi_1#_ p. 25. So, in practice, most Middle Eastern leaders strongly adhered to nation-states and their borders. Therefore, I am very pessimistic about the opportunities offered by sub-national governance. Until now, experiments have been problematic at best: Kurdistan under Saddam Hussein (an attack with chemical weapons against Kurdish insurgents), nowadays Kurdistan (attempts to change borders to include oil fields in the autonomous territory), Hizbullah in southern Lebanon, North and South-Yemen,... One of the main problems is that nobody knows how to draw the borders. Like in Kurdistan, all parties will try to include as much oil fields as possible in the territory they control. Perhaps, the power-and-oil-sharing process in Iraq can serve as a model here, but its outcome is still uncertain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve the Planner View Post
    What is fascinating to me about Libya is that, unlike the perennial battle over who gets to be in charge (ultimately creating one form of dictatorship over the previous), is that, with no pre-existing pattern, people are beginning to form, admittedly on an experimental and informal basis) sub-national governance structures.
    Concur with everything but the above. The interesting (basket?)case that is Libya (or Lybia according to one American book I read!) is that the people are not plucking sub-national governance structures out of thin air. The particular structural trajectory that the Libyan state took under Ghaddafi is intriguing. He styled himself as a revolutionary socialist-Islamic ruler (is that Glenn Beck I hear in the background?). Consequently, in order to undermine the tribal structure of Libya as it existed under the previous monarch (Ghaddafi's own tribal lineage was singularly "unimpressive" so he couldn't draw on that power structure to prop himself up) Ghaddafi introduced popular councils, revolutionary committees, &c at all levels of government (talk about un-intended consequences!). Partly, this was to upset the tribal structure of Libya (which he has been largely succesful in suppressing, until now) but mostly it was to diffuse power to such a degree as to leave him the only centre of authroitative power in the hub-spoke system. He periodically, shook up those councils too. But the Libyan people, more perhaps than any other Arab or African state have a great deal of expertise in political management and organisation even if it was, ultimately, stunted by the presence of Ghaddafi, but the damage was done; the Libyan people got a taste of "civil society". He did the same thing with the Armed forces (after all, he's still only a Col.) especially after the return of Libyan jihadis from Afghanistan and the numerous (almost Nasserite) officer revolts since the late 70s. In fact, it was the absence of any real vertically authoritarian system that enabled the "revolt" to spread so quickly, given that there was no reliable coercive instrument to rely upon other than a few loyal "revolutionary" militias. He diffused his power so effectviely throughout the system that, in the end, he had nothing to back it up in an emergency (especially one in which the international system was not conducive to his particular brand of conflict resolution). It's a wonder he was in power so long (but that's nepotisim, clientelism, et al for you). What we are seeing now is the self-organisation of Libya based upon years of exerience but without Ghaddafi's braking mechanism. In the end, nothing succeeds like success; the question we have to ask ourselves is would the "revolt" have occured without Tunisia and Egypt? Which makes generalisations about the "causes" of revolution in general even more suspect.
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 03-01-2011 at 08:24 PM. Reason: Added comments in parenthesis at sentence five.

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    Tukhachevskii:

    Ain't it grand and amazing?

    What if the new national structure clones into two or more structures, or just local councils?

    Who controls the oil?

    Question remains whether they will be able to carve out something positive for themselves.

    Whether good or bad, the majority of the population is urban and young. There is little room for survival of "ancient" tribal systems that, by definition, argue against youth and urban empowerment.

    What was that Jurassic Park quote: Life will out?

    Now to find out what kind of life....

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    Marc:

    Lots of people actually know how to create borders---but they must be definitive, accepted, and defensible if they are to survive without conflict.

    Demographics, culture and economics often run over poorly defined borders that are obstructed from natural change (or correction).

    This idea of borders cannot change is what stands against the march of history: read USA, Germany, Pakistan, etc...

    History has been, and will continue to be written by conflicts surrounding improperly set, or conflicting borders and national/sub-national governance structures.

    Aversion to change is a characteristic of empires, often creating the history of conflicts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve the Planner View Post
    Marc:

    Lots of people actually know how to create borders---but they must be definitive, accepted, and defensible if they are to survive without conflict.

    Demographics, culture and economics often run over poorly defined borders that are obstructed from natural change (or correction).

    This idea of borders cannot change is what stands against the march of history: read USA, Germany, Pakistan, etc...

    History has been, and will continue to be written by conflicts surrounding improperly set, or conflicting borders and national/sub-national governance structures.

    Aversion to change is a characteristic of empires, often creating the history of conflicts.
    Steve,

    Recent history shows that, contrary to what you think, it is very difficult to create borders. It is possible to change the function of an existing border. For instance, a provincial border can become a nation-state border after a secession. That is what happened on numerous occasions in the last three decades (the baltic republics, Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, East Timor, Kazachstan, Ukraine,...). However, creating new borders is difficult to impossible. Becoming an independent state or a state inside a federation to a large degre depends upon the existence of borders suitable to define this new state. In instances where such borders do not exist (Bosnia, Kurdistan, Palestine,...) the political and diplomatic problems are much more difficult than when such borders do exist.

    A good document on the complexities surrounding the "creation" of borders is "Negotiating the Dayton Peace Accords through Digital Maps" by Richard G. Johnson.

    http://www.iapad.org/publications/pp...gital_Maps.pdf

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