All of this is complex stuff. The Model I have worked up is intentionally designed to provide a simple, general framework to help sort through all of that complexity to focus on what is really important.

Also obvious, is that we all look at these problems through our own lenses, burdened by our own baggage. I certainly include myself in that assessment.

Take Wilf for example (please, god help me, somebody take Wilf!! ) We all know that he sees insurgency as war, and that popular discontent is only insurgency once it goes violent. At which point the military is sent in to defeat the violence. No more "insurgency." On the Jones mode I recognize that all of this happens on a continuum; and that there are, I believe, common factors, (as measured by the populaces perception, and yes, Dayuan, at some point one does have to make an assessment themselves of how it is they understand that popular perception to be).

So as governance gets more "Poor" the natural trend is for violence to rise. A leader of the dissident groups may opt for a non-violent approach, as Dr Maria Stephan advocates in her work. History shows that it is twice as likely to produce change where no legal means for change exists than violent approaches are. Or a governmental leader may have such charisma, like Mr. Obama, that the populace is temporarily satisfied with what would otherwise be assessed as poor; or greater external threats, like a WWII going on, may cause a populace to accept greater poorness; or the military may suppress violence and create a perception of goodness.

So, yes, the British Empire was very much an economic empire, of which the US Empire is derived. Cost/Benefit analysis and spread sheets driving decisions. Did the China or India become less productive? Did the Middle East begin to produce less oil or the Suez canal become less important? Did the American Colonies become less productive and show less potential? No on all counts. Sure, not all moved all the way up the Jones model into full blown, in your face classic insurgency. Some only moved so far as to make the Juice no longer worth the proverbial Squeeze. The Costs of occupation exceeded the Benefit of Occupation. Certainly factors at home, like the great costs and disruptions of WWI and II factor in, but if the colony could have contributed to digging out of the hole it would have been retained. Those major disruptions served to shift the equation adequately so as to allow the suppressed to make the cost exceed the benefit and prevail.

Now, Dayuhan says how can Saudi Arabia (The decisive point for GWOT IMO) be brought into such conversations, they receive no support from the US, the opposite is true he says. Really? The Saudis sell us discount oil in exchange for our commitment to defend them against all threats, foreign and domestic?? I know the Gulf War was a while ago, but I still remember. The Saudis have three great fears: 1. Iran. 2. Shia in general, but particularly the large oppressed Shia populace whose lands lay within Saudi Arabia atop half of their oil. 3 There entire oppressed populace as a whole. When it comes to countering insurgency, the Saudis never let the grass grow too tall. The should be pros at this, they have been doing it since their inception. Now they get to do it with the full blessing and sanction of the US because they call it "counterterrorism."


Now, entropy points out the importance of control. But I think you really need to assess just what you mean by control. Is control the ability of the state to prevent popular action, or is control the willingness of the populace to submit to government policy and rules????

Does a jockey "control" his horse? Yes, but the horse could turn and kill the jockey whenever it chose to do so.

Does a single police officer in an intersection "control" traffic? Yes, but again, only so long as the populace driving the cars consents to submit to his rules.

Bottom line is that control is a tenuous thing, and is really more of a misnomer than most of us probably think about when we use the word. I am sure I could plot another line on my model to show how much effort must be exerted by a government to "control" as governance moves from "Goodness" to "Badness."

Oh, and yes, I do use "Despotism" interchangeably with "Poor Governance." I am a huge fan of the American story, of the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution and our Bill of Rights. These documents are ground zero for anyone who wants to study Insurgency and COIN. If they are not on your shelf next to your Galua and Kitson, you missing some critical links in your chain of knowledge.

The US was born of insurgency. We formally recognize the duty and right of a populace to rise up in insurgency when faced with Despotism. Powerful stuff. Then we added a Bill of Rights that when one reads with the eyes of an insurgent/counterinsurgent, one sees how it was designed to specifically prevent a government from doing things that were key to the causal perceptions of Poor Governance going into the revolt with England; and also in preserving key powers and rights in the populace to allow them to always be so informed, so strong, as to keep any government in check.

Good input guys.