Operationalizing The Jones Model through COG

[Bob's World]

Am I missing something?

In a word? Yes.


First, COG as applied to warfare: While I largely consider the Wilf vs. Fuchs debate in the category of "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin," it really does not apply to the positions I am forwarding here. In warfare though, I would suggest that accurately understanding the enemy's COG is critical in knowing what must be defeated; but is probably not something that one wants to attack. Best to pit one's strength against their opponents weakness; thus why it is a very helpful construct to understand what are the requriements that are critical to the functioning of the COG; and then of those, which are also vulnerable to defeat. Attack the CVs; not the COG.

But for Insurgency all of that is rather moot. I do not want to defeat the COG, I want to outcompete the insurgent in the race to be perceived by the populace as the producer of the COG. He who provides Good Governance wins.

Now, if I am simply focused on counter insurgent operations, to go out and counter violence with violence and to wage a physical dual with the insurgent, using the warfare approach to COG could be helpful in winning that battle. Problem is that I have probably made the conditions of insurgency worse in the process.

But I don't write any of this to convince Wilf to change his "war is war" approach, nor to disabuse Fuchs of his notions that only Germans can understand CvC; I just want to toss out an alternative position for the SWJ community to consider as they wrestle with how to best deal insurgency.

[William F. Owen]

I just want to toss out an alternative position for the SWJ community to consider as they wrestle with how to best deal insurgency.

....a form of insurgency that does not use violence to redistribute political power?

Problem is that I have probably made the conditions of insurgency worse in the process.

Only if you are stupid, unskilled and not practised in warfare.

[Bob's World]

....a form of insurgency that does not use violence to redistribute political power?


Only if you are stupid, unskilled and not practised in warfare.

Point one: Not all violence to redistribue political power is warfare. If a bunch of thugs in 1870s NYC prevents certain segments of the popualce from voting through intimidation and violence it is not warfare, though it meets your definition.

Similarly when a segment of a populace within a state employs intimidation and violence to shape politics I do not believe it is helpful to resolving the problem to classify that as warfare either.

Again, not to change your mind, only to be clear that my point is valid. Though I suspect that the Colin Powell leadership principle of "Never get so close to your position that when your position falls, your ego falls with it." is applicable here.

Point two is that most counterinsurgencies have unfolded this way. I don't believe those officers were stupid for thinking of insurgency as warfare, that is what they were trained to think and do. I just don't think it was the fast track to success, and most COIN "victories" won in such fashion of re-emerged over and over and over and over.. as the underlying causation was never addressed.

[William F. Owen]

Point one: Not all violence to redistribue political power is warfare. If a bunch of thugs in 1870s NYC prevents certain segments of the popualce from voting through intimidation and violence it is not warfare, though it meets your definition.

Same was true in Northern Ireland, and the American Southern states. The point was the degree of violence falls below the threshold of War because it does not use military means and is not countered using military force. - see Pablo Escobar, once he moved into politics!

Similarly when a segment of a populace within a state employs intimidation and violence to shape politics I do not believe it is helpful to resolving the problem to classify that as warfare either.

I submit that if they use military means, then it is useful and necessary to term it warfare. Look at Southern Thailand. Once the violence is escalated beyond the capacities of the Police, you have warfare.

Again, not to change your mind, only to be clear that my point is valid.

Well at least we are clear what we are disagreeing about!