Entropy:

You are sticking your toe into the waters of the real Afghanistan---a decentralized amalgamation of numerous competing groups with long-standing conflicts, vendettas, and histories.

Back, of course, to the fact that we really don't know much about these places or the dynamics of the Country as a whole. A bunch of hillbillies wandering around thinking they are building a nation.

I find it more interesting, whenever possible through news sources, to follow the rest of Afghanistan---the places and people not paralyzed by conflict, and gradually capturing the lion's share of forward momentum---not the Pashtuns.

Granted, Pashtuns may be a majority, but if disabled by conflict, corruption, or whatever, their stock is in serious relative decline while the stock of others grows.

Look at the plight and condition of Kurds after the Anfal. Everything was destroyed, and tens of thousands of teachers, nurses and engineers were dead and buried in mass graves. But, by 2008, Kurdistan was on a roll, while the rest of Iraq was in turmoil. Now, the Kurds' relative position is greatly advanced compared to the rest of Iraq---creating a whole new level of potential instability.

Taking away the US payola gangs, and leaving the Pashtun areas to their own devices, they will very shortly be facing a very different "rest of Afghanistan" that is increasingly becoming educated, urbanized, and linked to international trade patterns. When does this inevitable fracture come to a head? After the Taliban game comes to rest.

A post-conflict Afghanistan simply won't waste operating and capital investments in places where things are unwanted, likely to be destroyed, or closed. The money will rapidly flow elsewhere.

These exercises have little to do with real government because they have little to do with actual economics, politics or culture. Development only becomes real when actual folks with skin in the game have to make choices and their own investments, for realistic expectations of profits (not just grafting an aid program).

The current civ-mil structure is focused on conflict, and conflict remediation in targeted conflict areas. Very different than a credible national engagement process.