Quote Originally Posted by Schmedlap View Post
My understanding of Iran's benefit is that it now has significantly more influence in Iraq (really, what kind of threat was Saddam from 91 to 03?). Wouldn't that gain evaporate if the GoI collapsed?
Be careful that you don't overstate Iran's influence in Iraq. There is a tendency in some circles to assume that now that the Shia are much more dominant in Iraq that the Shia dominated state of Iran will have much more influence and this is true to a point. Some of the Shia will accept all manner of Iranian help and certainly Iran has more influence than before but there is one important factor to consider. The Iranians are not Arabs and that matters a lot more than I think a lot of westerners realize. The Iraqi Shia may accept Iranian help and will accept Iranian influence but, by and large, they will not accept being dominated by non-Arabs. That will put limitations on just how much influence Iran has in Iraq.