Cuba (merged thread)

[Watcher In The Middle]

The Mob found rich pickings in Cuba and though tourism alone certainly would not pull Cuba out of its economic cesspool, it certainly would help. The beaches and climate are nice, so they say. A few big casino hotels could pump alot of money into the central government and provide high paying jobs for some locals and relationships between the average Cuban and American would improve. Since I am not a gambler or cigar smoker, I'll let others more wise draw the final conclusions.

The biggest problem with the entire tourism area of the economy in Cuba are those nagging issues of uneven government interference with the tourism operations (new government edicts which contradict the previous government edicts issued 6-9 months ago, which "revised" the government edicts issued 9 months earlier, etc., etc.). If you've just placed a bet for $100-$200 mil on tourism in Cuba, and now you are getting jacked around by the government, you are NOT HAPPY!

Honestly, another issue is that Cuba has in many ways (at least in the tourism business) also turned into a thriving underground sex business - at least that's the perception out there. Personally, I could care less about the morality issue at play, but getting that type of reputation (even if completely undeserved) just kills Cuba's chances at developing the high end tourist marketplace. Low rent district, and that's hell to change.

As for tobacco, some of their neighbors have really eaten into their marketplace.

Amazingly enough, there's two issues that play to economic development which could come to the forefront for Cuba in a post-Fidel environment.

First is sugar cane - guess what, it's far easier and much more efficient to convert sugar production into Ethanol than corn. Something to think about.

Second, and this is the big one (government, academia, and the politicians seem to all be blind to it), is that Cuba has the one thing that everybody wants in the real estate market - Location, Location, Location. Havana to Miami-Dade distance-wise is close to the same distance as New York-Washington D.C. (about 230 miles to 200 miles).

Miami-Dade in the 1960's and 1970's played second fiddle to both New Orleans and Atlanta. Not these days - Miami-Dade has developed to be a thriving international gateway, and major world class fiscal/trading center.

Cuba (literally, the entire island) would be the perfect location for an "outer collar" for Miami-Dade, with major container ports, feeder for Miami-Dade (think of using Gitmo as both a military/civilian feeder airport into both Miami-Dade International and Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson).

But the above is all a pipe dream until we go post-Fidel. Nobody is going to kick in the types of megabucks required until Fidel is off the scene. Business does not "do" political ideology well - and that's Fidel's environment.

Just a few thoughts....

[goesh]

I hadn't considered the ethanol/biodiesel aspect - seems somewhere South biodiesel is really booming - Brazil? Regarding casinos, it seems really a matter of percentages being put on paper with accountants from both sides insuring contractual harmony. Again a small percentage of the potential GNP but the image issue can be countered with non-casino type resorts, family type places. An 'accidental' overdose for el-Commandante and it's off to Cuban Capitalism for sure and Cuba as a financial "outer collar" is viable. With Fidel in the grave, the Cuban-Americans lose 75% of their clout.

[Watcher In The Middle]

I hadn't considered the ethanol/biodiesel aspect - seems somewhere South biodiesel is really booming - Brazil?

Yes, it is Brazil. But that's just a small part of a bigger story. The whole "Politics of Sugar", in particular in Florida, are going to face radical change once Fidel goes off the scene. Here's a link to the background at opensecrets.org (btw, both political parties are dirty as sin on this one).

Link

An 'accidental' overdose for el-Commandante and it's off to Cuban Capitalism for sure and Cuba as a financial "outer collar" is viable. With Fidel in the grave, the Cuban-Americans lose 75% of their clout.

The funny thing is that the new economics are being held at bay by this really weird symbiotic adversarial relationship (more of a shouting match, actually) of Castro vrs. the Cuban-Americans. Remove one group from the scene, and in all likelihood the other side will just be lost without their old adversary.

The funnest part of the whole deal is that if this comes down where Cuba becomes an economic "Outer Collar" from Miami-Dade, the biggest losers will probably be the Chinese. Right now, Cuba is an open field playpen for them, because there are so few players. But flood the playing field with new players, and the Chinese are ust "wannabes". As is Hugo Chavez.