I'm not at all impressed by the article Cuba After Fidel: What Future for US-Cuban Relations? - I think it falls into what I call the "soft headed, delusional approach to a currently failed state".

For example, they take what I feel are the "glittering generalities" about Cuba, don't look behind the curtain at all to see how things are really working out (the devil being in the details, as we have learned in Iraq), and then drawing all the appropriate soft headed conclusions.

For example, just shook my head over the talk about the Cuban financial miracle. First comment is that the article statements about the “successful tourism sector” is really substantially nonsense, considering that of all the tourism growth occurring in the region (which has experienced a vast expansion virtually everywhere), only a small portion of it has gone to Cuba, and most importantly, not what would be considered to be the “high end” market. Looks like this study gauged “success” by comparing tourism in Cuba to complete total tourism stagnation (say, something like “tourism in Somalia”, or maybe Cali, Columbia during the drug wars).

Secondly, I was amazed for such an article how little attention/knowledge they spent paying attention to individuals like Raul Castro. Raul Castro has a much different style of leadership than his brother, which has quickly become apparent over the last 1-2 years.

Raul reportedly has spent a great deal of effort building a cadre of individuals who would probably be identified as being both “mid level managers” and “upper level managers” in private enterprise, although in Cuba they are part of the military. There have been a number of favorable reports regarding business-to-business contacts with different of these individuals. Impressive.

With Fidel Castro’s recent serious illnesses, Raul Castro has shown some tantalizing hints of potential changes to come post Fidel. Just as a point, there are a number of very hard headed US business types who have a much more favorable impression of Cuba under Raul Castro's guidance than they have of Cuba currently under Fidel Castro's leadership. That talks loudly to me. But who know what, if anything will come of this all.

I would hope that when Fidel passes, the first act by this administration would to be to immediately lift Helms-Burton. No longer needed. And then just sit back for at least 6 months and do nothing (either way). The global marketplace will tell us what steps are required next, if any - but you have got to give it some time.

Of all the options presented in the article, I tend to think it will be Option 2 that will come into effect (Limited Engagement, or the “Miracle of the Marketplace”).

Just as an outsider observation, this article reads like it comes from some fuzzy thinking "think tank" funded with megabucks by some government agency, and they went out and got all the glittering generalities they could find, vacumned up a whole bunch of facts and then sorted out the ones needed to support their conclusions, and ended up with "And It's Away We Go" type of article.

Guys, the business community has a much different, and much more hard headed outlook. There's big time money being planned for capital development in different world markets (all the time), and those folks want insights. Cuba (post Fidel) these days is on that radar screen.