Cuba (merged thread)

[Jimbo]

The key is acting before Cuba hits the breaking point. If Raul can be engaged to liberalize the political process in exchange for sanction lifting, then there is an opportunity to prevent the catestrophe that is waiting in the wings. The Cuban situation is different from Iraq in that their is strong Cuban constituency in this country that is going to fight any reapproachment with Cuba as long as Fidel is alive. They will not be happy with Raul either. However, because Fidel is the "face" of Cuba, the Cuban expats might be more accepting of Raul in an interim role with a road to some type of democratic process. And then hopefully, cheap Cohibas!!!

[tequila]

The Miami Cubans make AIPAC look docile. We unfortunately will not see any rapprochement while they maintain their death grip on the swing vote in Florida politics.

[Jedburgh]

Military Review, Sep-Oct 07: Cuba After Fidel: What Future for US-Cuban Relations?

....What should the U.S. response be to a Fidel-less Cuba? Will the immediate change in leadership further normalization of relations and an end to the embargo? Will the U.S. continue its long-standing policy of indirect subversion and sabotage? Or will Fidel’s death and the transition to another leader provide the opportune climate for direct U.S. military intervention? Will the Cuban dissidents on and off the island be able to rally the Cuban people to overthrow a successor government? Should the United States have a role, either direct or indirect, in regime change in Cuba? Would an active U.S. role promote democracy in Cuba and the region? And what would be the immediate and long-term impact of U.S.-sponsored regime change on hemispheric cooperation and security?

How U.S. policymakers respond to these difficult questions will be critical to Cuba’s political and economic development and to a renewal of U.S. credibility in Latin America. But before we begin to consider what the appropriate U.S. security framework for a new Cuba policy should be, we must first put the current U.S. foreign policy towards Latin America into context.....

[Watcher In The Middle]

I'm not at all impressed by the article Cuba After Fidel: What Future for US-Cuban Relations? - I think it falls into what I call the "soft headed, delusional approach to a currently failed state".

For example, they take what I feel are the "glittering generalities" about Cuba, don't look behind the curtain at all to see how things are really working out (the devil being in the details, as we have learned in Iraq), and then drawing all the appropriate soft headed conclusions.

For example, just shook my head over the talk about the Cuban financial miracle. First comment is that the article statements about the “successful tourism sector” is really substantially nonsense, considering that of all the tourism growth occurring in the region (which has experienced a vast expansion virtually everywhere), only a small portion of it has gone to Cuba, and most importantly, not what would be considered to be the “high end” market. Looks like this study gauged “success” by comparing tourism in Cuba to complete total tourism stagnation (say, something like “tourism in Somalia”, or maybe Cali, Columbia during the drug wars).

Secondly, I was amazed for such an article how little attention/knowledge they spent paying attention to individuals like Raul Castro. Raul Castro has a much different style of leadership than his brother, which has quickly become apparent over the last 1-2 years.

Raul reportedly has spent a great deal of effort building a cadre of individuals who would probably be identified as being both “mid level managers” and “upper level managers” in private enterprise, although in Cuba they are part of the military. There have been a number of favorable reports regarding business-to-business contacts with different of these individuals. Impressive.

With Fidel Castro’s recent serious illnesses, Raul Castro has shown some tantalizing hints of potential changes to come post Fidel. Just as a point, there are a number of very hard headed US business types who have a much more favorable impression of Cuba under Raul Castro's guidance than they have of Cuba currently under Fidel Castro's leadership. That talks loudly to me. But who know what, if anything will come of this all.

I would hope that when Fidel passes, the first act by this administration would to be to immediately lift Helms-Burton. No longer needed. And then just sit back for at least 6 months and do nothing (either way). The global marketplace will tell us what steps are required next, if any - but you have got to give it some time.

Of all the options presented in the article, I tend to think it will be Option 2 that will come into effect (Limited Engagement, or the “Miracle of the Marketplace”).

Just as an outsider observation, this article reads like it comes from some fuzzy thinking "think tank" funded with megabucks by some government agency, and they went out and got all the glittering generalities they could find, vacumned up a whole bunch of facts and then sorted out the ones needed to support their conclusions, and ended up with "And It's Away We Go" type of article.

Guys, the business community has a much different, and much more hard headed outlook. There's big time money being planned for capital development in different world markets (all the time), and those folks want insights. Cuba (post Fidel) these days is on that radar screen.

[goesh]

The Mob found rich pickings in Cuba and though tourism alone certainly would not pull Cuba out of its economic cesspool, it certainly would help. The beaches and climate are nice, so they say. A few big casino hotels could pump alot of money into the central government and provide high paying jobs for some locals and relationships between the average Cuban and American would improve. Since I am not a gambler or cigar smoker, I'll let others more wise draw the final conclusions.

[Watcher In The Middle]

The Mob found rich pickings in Cuba and though tourism alone certainly would not pull Cuba out of its economic cesspool, it certainly would help. The beaches and climate are nice, so they say. A few big casino hotels could pump alot of money into the central government and provide high paying jobs for some locals and relationships between the average Cuban and American would improve. Since I am not a gambler or cigar smoker, I'll let others more wise draw the final conclusions.

The biggest problem with the entire tourism area of the economy in Cuba are those nagging issues of uneven government interference with the tourism operations (new government edicts which contradict the previous government edicts issued 6-9 months ago, which "revised" the government edicts issued 9 months earlier, etc., etc.). If you've just placed a bet for $100-$200 mil on tourism in Cuba, and now you are getting jacked around by the government, you are NOT HAPPY!

Honestly, another issue is that Cuba has in many ways (at least in the tourism business) also turned into a thriving underground sex business - at least that's the perception out there. Personally, I could care less about the morality issue at play, but getting that type of reputation (even if completely undeserved) just kills Cuba's chances at developing the high end tourist marketplace. Low rent district, and that's hell to change.

As for tobacco, some of their neighbors have really eaten into their marketplace.

Amazingly enough, there's two issues that play to economic development which could come to the forefront for Cuba in a post-Fidel environment.

First is sugar cane - guess what, it's far easier and much more efficient to convert sugar production into Ethanol than corn. Something to think about.

Second, and this is the big one (government, academia, and the politicians seem to all be blind to it), is that Cuba has the one thing that everybody wants in the real estate market - Location, Location, Location. Havana to Miami-Dade distance-wise is close to the same distance as New York-Washington D.C. (about 230 miles to 200 miles).

Miami-Dade in the 1960's and 1970's played second fiddle to both New Orleans and Atlanta. Not these days - Miami-Dade has developed to be a thriving international gateway, and major world class fiscal/trading center.

Cuba (literally, the entire island) would be the perfect location for an "outer collar" for Miami-Dade, with major container ports, feeder for Miami-Dade (think of using Gitmo as both a military/civilian feeder airport into both Miami-Dade International and Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson).

But the above is all a pipe dream until we go post-Fidel. Nobody is going to kick in the types of megabucks required until Fidel is off the scene. Business does not "do" political ideology well - and that's Fidel's environment.

Just a few thoughts....

[goesh]

I hadn't considered the ethanol/biodiesel aspect - seems somewhere South biodiesel is really booming - Brazil? Regarding casinos, it seems really a matter of percentages being put on paper with accountants from both sides insuring contractual harmony. Again a small percentage of the potential GNP but the image issue can be countered with non-casino type resorts, family type places. An 'accidental' overdose for el-Commandante and it's off to Cuban Capitalism for sure and Cuba as a financial "outer collar" is viable. With Fidel in the grave, the Cuban-Americans lose 75% of their clout.

[Watcher In The Middle]

Here's the article:

For Cubans, a Twisting New Route to the U.S.

By MARC LACEY
Published: October 16, 2007

CORTES, Cuba — Cubans are migrating to the United States in the greatest numbers in over a decade, and for most of them the new way to get north is first to head west — to Mexico — in a convoluted route that avoids the United States Coast Guard.

The island of Isla Mujeres has become a stepping stone to the United States for many Cubans who believe that a route through Mexico boosts their odds of reaching Miami.

American officials say the spike in migration is due to a lack of hope for change on the island, since Raúl Castro took over as president from his brother Fidel last year. Cuban authorities contend the migration is more economic than political, and is fueled by Washington’s policy of rewarding Cubans who enter the United States illegally.

In fact, unlike Mexicans, Central Americans and others heading to the United States’ southwest border, the Cubans do not have to sneak across. They just walk right up to United States authorities at the border, relying on Washington’s so-called wet foot/dry foot policy, which gives Cubans the ability to become permanent residents if they can only reach American soil.

LInk to Article

Interesting article, because it strikes home. Recently had a situation where I was made acutely aware that the greatest growth of illegals coming across the Mexican border are from Eastern Europe, with Poland, Romania, etc. leading the way. There are all sorts of newspaper recruitment ads for illegals who can't get visas (or would have incredible waits) to fly to Mexico, make contact with their "handlers", and cross the US border to get to safe houses where they are then transported to major US cities. Cost is $10k to $15k per person, but beats waiting in line for 10-12 years, if you are lucky enough to win the visa lottery.

Got to hand it to the ordinary Cubans, though. They really got this game wired. They've just figured out a way to beat not only the US Coast Guard, but also the Cuban authorities by using Mexico as a conduit. Fidel really can't beat up on Mexico too much, because Mexico is one of "the locals" - Not like the Great Northern Imperialist.

I'm just sitting back and enjoying the thought of Fidel Castro joining sides with the conservatives out there who want to dramatically tighten US-Mexico border security.