Gun Control in Counterinsurgency

[Bob's World]

True, but you're not always dealing with "a populace". An example might be the valley to the northwest that I described above, or for that matter much of the main island of Mindanao. here you have two populaces, one composed of settlers that have been largely in place for several generations and see themselves as the natural and progressive inheritors of the land, the other an indigenous populace that sees themselves as oppressed by invaders. Both populaces are heavily armed and ready to go at each other at the slightest provocation. It's often forgotten, for example, that the Muslim "insurgency" in Mindanao did not begin with secessionist insurgents fighting the government. It began with militias formed by Christian settlers fighting militias formed by indigenous Muslims.

I wouldn't necessarily say the best approach is to disarm, but the situation is a whole lot more complicated than just respecting "the populace"... especially when various populaces have mutually exclusive demands and are prepared to fight for them.

I suspect that this situation is not unique... it's simply meant to illustrate the limitations of the assumption that internal strife stems from the relationship between a government and a monolithic populace.

People naturally flow from Bad to Good, in terms of places to live; and if a place is Good, then there are typically people already there. At work they were chewing on the problem of illegal immigrants to the US; I came in late to the debate so I listened to what they were discussing from where my head was in the realm of insurgency. My sound byte was: "We don't have an immigration problem, we have an integration problem. "

There will always be friction between those who are first in time and those who come after; or more accurately, those who are there currently and those who come next; as any place worth living has seen this play out repeatedly through the history of mankind. It's natural, like a forest fire or a hurricane is natural; so is the friction and violence. Nature has a way of sorting itself out, but our question is how to we quicken the process and mitigate the violent aspect of it.

I link this to the "Respect" category on my model. Both sides of the story have legitimate issues, but do both feel that they are being treated as equals by the government? Do both sides feel that they receive "Justice" under the rule of law? Do both sides recognize the legitimacy of the government, both locally and nationally, and do they feel that they have trusted and certain means to influence change?

If the answer is yes to all, then this will all integrate in short order and no gun control is required. If, on the other hand the answer is no, then there will be continued problems that may well erupt into violence, and no amount of gun control can prevent it. I doubt very much that either group wants to be "controlled"; but if one group can leverage the government to control the other you will have insurgency and it will be the government's fault when it happens.