Severe Space Weather

[AdamG]

A 1921 solar storm (not to mention an 1859 Carrington level event) would be an absolute nightmare for most of the Northern Hemisphere. I hear the experts saying that the circuit breakers built into the system would protect much of the power transmission infrastructure, but I've never been able to get an answer to what I see as one critical difference (probably wrong on my part, but maybe somebody knows the answer).

A solar storm on the magnitude of the 1921 event would most likely massively charge the entire power grid - not just a 'spike', but probably the entire grid at a level almost sure to trigger virtually all the built-in circuit breakers existing all across a modern day power transmission grid.


Insights appreciated...

Let's see what the scienticians at NASA say :

Above: What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability is also available: click here. Credit: National Academy of Sciences.

The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921.

"A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions," the report warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news...espaceweather/

It'd be 9-11, times a thousand.

[AdamG]

GENEVA (AP) -- A senior official at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says solar storms pose a growing threat to criticial infrastructure such as satellite communications, navigation systems and electrical transmission equipment.

NOAA Assistant Secretary Kathryn Sullivan says the intensity of solar storms is expected to peak in 2013 and countries should prepare for "potentially devastating effects."

Solar storms release particles that can temporarily disable or permanently destroy fragile computer circuits.

Sullivan, a former NASA astronaut who in 1984 became the first woman to walk in space, told a U.N. weather conference in Geneva on Tuesday that "it is not a question of if, but really a matter of when a major solar event could hit our planet

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...05-17-07-57-46

[AdamG]

OSLO — A U.N. plan to upgrade "space weather" forecasts can help the world cope with solar storms that might wreak up to $2 trillion in damage if the sun repeated a giant flare of 1859, experts said.

The sun is entering a more active phase due to peak in 2013 on a roughly 11-year sunspot cycle, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said. Power supplies, air traffic control, communications and satellites can all be disrupted by storms.

"We are increasingly being impacted by space weather," Barbara Ryan, director of the space weather program at the Geneva-based WMO, told Reuters. She said there was a need to coordinate forecasts and upgrade warnings of looming storms.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43327720...science-space/


Report highlights GPS vulnerability to space weather
by Lloyd's List — last modified Jun 08, 2011 12:20 PM

A new report from the American Meteorological Society has revealed how vulnerable satellite systems are to space weather, such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms, which can cause distortion or total loss of a signal.

It highlights the impact solar storms could have on modern communication and global navigation satellite systems and is urging for more work be done to understand the impact of space phenomena.

GPS receivers calculate their location through the analysis of signals...

http://www.lloydslistdcn.com.au/arch...-space-weather

also

http://www.surveyequipment.com/news/...es-174954.html

[AdamG]

...and teaching paper map, compass and protractor land nav skills was pointless.

Antti Pulkkinen, who leads NASA's "Solar Shield" satellite-based detection system at the Goddard Space Flight Center, said the cloud of ionized particles from Tuesday's violent "coronal mass ejection" will largely miss Earth, giving some North American residents a glimpse of the aurora borealis, or northern lights, this weekend. "It will not be a major event [for] the power grid," he said.

However, NASA spacecraft detected a much larger eruption last weekend on the backside of the sun headed away from Earth, generating a much faster-moving cloud.

"If this event was on a collision course with the U.S., we would have had a major space weather event," Pulkkinen said. "In this regard, we got lucky."

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/06...ids-63979.html

"The worst-case scenario is an extreme event," says Michael Hesse, chief of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. "If it were to happen and we don't take any precautions, it would probably knock out our power grid for an extended period of time and destroy a sizable fraction of our satellite infrastructure."

"This is not something we expect to happen tomorrow," he cautions. "But it's like the impact of a hurricane on a specific location. You don't expect it to happen tomorrow, but you might want to think about if it were to happen."

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2386623,00.asp

[CloseDanger]

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/

[AdamG]

June 22, 2011 - NOAA forecasts, supported by guidance from the WSA-Enlil solar wind model, are projecting CME arrival mid to late day UTC on June 23. The CME does appear to be clearly Earth-directed, so some effect is almost certain. The bulk of the disturbance is still expected on June 24, with G1 (Minor) and isolated G2 (Moderate) levels of Geomagnetic Storming expected for the duration of the event. High latitude aurora watchers should be on alert Thursday and Friday night.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/