Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 32

Thread: Severe Space Weather

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    Council Member Sergeant T's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Posts
    67

    Default Severe Space Weather

    It would appear there's a big slug of solar energy inbound. At worst these cause communications disruptions and play hell with satellites, at best they give a nice light show to those of us in the northern latitudes. The cooler heads are estimating this one will be the latter. A bit of background here, here, and here.

  2. #2
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    97

    Default

    we're all gonna die!

  3. #3
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    The threat of solar storms that could wreak havoc on the world's electronic systems must be taken more seriously, the UK government's chief scientist has warned. A severe solar storm could damage satellites and power grids around the world, he said, leading to a "global Katrina" costing the world's economies as much as $2tn (£1.2tn).

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/20...global-katrina

    WASHINGTON — Space weather could pose serious problems here on Earth in the coming years, the chief of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Saturday (Feb. 19).

    A severe solar storm has the potential to take down telecommunications and power grids, and the country needs to work on being better prepared, said NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco here at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Lubchenco is also the U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere.

    "This is not a matter of if, it's simply a matter of when and how big," Lubchenco said of the potential for a dangerous solar flare. "We have every reason to expect we're going to be seeing more space weather in the coming years, and it behooves us to be smart and be prepared."

    http://www.space.com/10906-space-storms-threat.html

    And, last week, the Sun sneezed. A class X solar flare, the most powerful in four years, erupted on the Sun late on February 14, and associated with it were a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), blasting charged particles towards the Earth. This storm raised concerns that it could cause everything from communications blackouts to disruptions in the power grid from geomagnetically induced currents as the storm’s charged particles interacted with the Earth’s magnetic field. Fortunately, though, the direst predictions failed to come to pass, as the storm caused only minor interference with communications.

    The timing of the storm was good in one respect: it came just days before a session on the effects of space weather at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Washington. The session, scheduled long before last week’s storm with the provocative title “Space Weather: The Next Big Solar Storm Could Be a Global Katrina”, was intended to raise awareness of the threat solar storms pose to modern civilization as the Sun approaches another peak in its 11-year cycle of activity.

    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1783/1
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  4. #4
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    204

    Default

    This got my attention recently when a good friend had to spend four days without electric power and no running water having to take care of sick family members during our recent Midwest blizzard.

    No power, 18" inches of snow, 30 to 35+ mph winds (6 to 8+ foot drifts), nothing was moving except a group of first responders on snowmobiles, well pumps were inoperative due to no power, had to use a camp stove and wood burning fireplace because their 90+ HE gas furnace uses an electronic circuit board controlled ignition system, and of course, an electric stovetop unit.

    And she grew up on a farm equipped with an outhouse and a well hand pump. By day 3 she was really missing both the outhouse and the hand pumped well.

    A 1921 solar storm (not to mention an 1859 Carrington level event) would be an absolute nightmare for most of the Northern Hemisphere. I hear the experts saying that the circuit breakers built into the system would protect much of the power transmission infrastructure, but I've never been able to get an answer to what I see as one critical difference (probably wrong on my part, but maybe somebody knows the answer).

    A solar storm on the magnitude of the 1921 event would most likely massively charge the entire power grid - not just a 'spike', but probably the entire grid at a level almost sure to trigger virtually all the built-in circuit breakers existing all across a modern day power transmission grid.

    All that power resulting from the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) has to go someplace - since we know from 1859 that such a CME would use transmission lines as a conduit (in 1859 it was the telegraph lines), would this type of event result in serious damage to the transmission lines themselves (being that the circuit breakers probably kick in)? Or would the massive burst of electrical current across the lines simply arc across the now tripped circuit breakers and damage even more of the transmission infrastructure?

    Insights appreciated...

  5. #5
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    98

    Default any electronics

    Any electronics above 8k feet are at higher risk. Altitude really plays hell with this stuff in my experience (I've done a lot of high altitude computing). So people living in mountain states in high areas have a higher risk of outages than people at lower levels.

  6. #6
    Council Member Sergeant T's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Posts
    67

    Default

    I'm not anything approaching technically versed in this matter, but I read something a few years ago about step down transformers. Apparently that's the weak link in the power grid. Thing I read (Ted Lewis' Critical Infrastructure Protection book.) said that they're custom made and take several months to produce.

  7. #7
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Watcher In The Middle View Post
    A 1921 solar storm (not to mention an 1859 Carrington level event) would be an absolute nightmare for most of the Northern Hemisphere. I hear the experts saying that the circuit breakers built into the system would protect much of the power transmission infrastructure, but I've never been able to get an answer to what I see as one critical difference (probably wrong on my part, but maybe somebody knows the answer).

    A solar storm on the magnitude of the 1921 event would most likely massively charge the entire power grid - not just a 'spike', but probably the entire grid at a level almost sure to trigger virtually all the built-in circuit breakers existing all across a modern day power transmission grid.


    Insights appreciated...
    Let's see what the scienticians at NASA say :



    Above: What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability is also available: click here. Credit: National Academy of Sciences.

    The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921.

    "A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions," the report warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.
    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news...espaceweather/

    It'd be 9-11, times a thousand.
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  8. #8
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    GENEVA (AP) -- A senior official at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says solar storms pose a growing threat to criticial infrastructure such as satellite communications, navigation systems and electrical transmission equipment.

    NOAA Assistant Secretary Kathryn Sullivan says the intensity of solar storms is expected to peak in 2013 and countries should prepare for "potentially devastating effects."

    Solar storms release particles that can temporarily disable or permanently destroy fragile computer circuits.

    Sullivan, a former NASA astronaut who in 1984 became the first woman to walk in space, told a U.N. weather conference in Geneva on Tuesday that "it is not a question of if, but really a matter of when a major solar event could hit our planet
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...05-17-07-57-46
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  9. #9
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    Word of today's blast, technically known as a coronal mass ejection or CME, comes via SpaceWeather.com's Tony Phillips. NASA says the outburst sparked an M3.2-class solar flare, as well as a stream of electrically charged particles that is due to interact with Earth's magnetic field on Saturday.
    http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news...eading-our-way
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  10. #10
    Council Member wm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    On the Lunatic Fringe
    Posts
    1,237

    Unhappy Bald Posts and no follow up

    {RANT ON}I wish that the snippets of articles AdamG posts could have a few of additions.
    First, it would be nice if the poster would make something of these posts--explain the "so what" of the post. The following is an example--the post had no subject and no analysis or discussion.
    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news...eading-our-way
    Word of today's blast, technically known as a coronal mass ejection or CME, comes via SpaceWeather.com's Tony Phillips. NASA says the outburst sparked an M3.2-class solar flare, as well as a stream of electrically charged particles that is due to interact with Earth's magnetic field on Saturday.
    Next , a follow up would be nice. The linked article noted a possible impact. So after 4 days, one might expect to see a follow on to identify what actually happened when the storm hit. But, all we have from AdamG is a new post about another space storm that might be coming to harm us.
    In fact, on Jan 22, a couple of follow ups were made to the original story: Excerpted from one is the following
    Quote Originally Posted by http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/21/10207087-solar-weather-stirs-up-super-sights
    The storm of electrically charged particles is projected to take a relatively non-threatening path past our planet. "We think it'll go to the north of Earth ... rather than right at us," he said.
    and the later follow up had this to say
    Quote Originally Posted by http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/21/10207087-solar-weather-stirs-up-super-sights
    The Space Weather Prediction Center is showing a rise in solar particle flux, and European observers are passing along some great pictures.
    (As an aside, I'm not clear how brighter Northern Lights seen afurther south has much to do with Small Wars. )



    Finally, the snippets tend to be pulled out of context. In this case, as the following quotation from that same article shows, the scare found in the posted excerpt was almost completely dismissed 2 sentences later.
    Quote Originally Posted by http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/19/10192639-solar-blast-heading-our-way
    M-class flares are capable of causing brief radio blackouts near the poles as well as minor radiation storms, but it's unlikely that this one will disrupt communication or power transmission networks. The forecast would be different if it were an X-class storm heading our way.
    {RANT OFF}
    Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
    The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris

  11. #11
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    Next , a follow up would be nice. The linked article noted a possible impact. So after 4 days, one might expect to see a follow on to identify what actually happened when the storm hit. But, all we have from AdamG is a new post about another space storm that might be coming to harm us.
    Instead of complaining, you can do a followup. There's nothing stopping you, is there?
    Last edited by AdamG; 01-25-2012 at 03:38 PM.
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  12. #12
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    (Reuters) - The strongest geomagnetic storm in more than six years was forecast to hit Earth's magnetic field on Tuesday, and it could affect airline routes, power grids and satellites, the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center said.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80M25Q20120123
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  13. #13
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events,
    Space Weather, 10, S02012, doi:10.1029/2011SW000734.
    Riley, P. (2012), Received 16 September 2011; accepted 22 December 2011; published 23 February 2012.

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others.

    In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and >30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future.

    For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.
    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/201...SW000734.shtml
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  14. #14
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by this morning's X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the CME's forecast track, say the impact could spark a strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.
    http://www.spaceweather.com/

    WASHINGTON — The largest solar flare in five years is racing toward Earth, threatening to unleash a torrent of charged particles that could disrupt power grids, GPS and airplane flights.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...zwR_story.html
    Last edited by AdamG; 03-07-2012 at 08:28 PM.
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  15. #15
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    A new government list of major threats to the UK has identified solar flares as one of the top risks to the country's way of life. Solar flares are explosions on the surface of the sun that can blast solar winds made up of charge particles towards the earth, disrupting electronic equipment. The UK's ever-increasing reliance upon technology makes it particularly vulnerable.
    http://www.techradar.com/news/world-...s-list-1072073
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  16. #16
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.
    http://www.spaceweather.com/
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  17. #17
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    Reference the post immediately above -


    Washington (AFP) - Back in 2012, the Sun erupted with a powerful solar storm that just missed the Earth but was big enough to "knock modern civilization back to the 18th century," NASA said.

    The extreme space weather that tore through Earth's orbit on July 23, 2012, was the most powerful in 150 years, according to a statement posted on the US space agency website Wednesday.
    http://news.yahoo.com/earth-survived...222404357.html


    Also

    Are nuclear reactors vulnerable to solar storms?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...CTae_blog.html
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  18. #18
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default Solar Flare: brace for impact

    Early this morning (Sept. 6), the sun released two powerful solar flares — the second was the most powerful in more than a decade.
    At 5:10 a.m. EDT (0910 GMT), an X-class solar flare — the most powerful sun-storm category — blasted from a large sunspot on the sun's surface. That flare was the strongest since 2015, at X2.2, but it was dwarfed just 3 hours later, at 8:02 a.m. EDT (1202 GMT), by an X9.3 flare, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The last X9 flare occurred in 2006#(coming in at X9.0).
    https://www.space.com/38057-sun-unle...lar-flare.html

    Nice shot group - rolls across the US from Sea-Tac over Chicago through NYC.

    G3 Watch: 7 through 9 September, 2017 due to CME Effects

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-wat...ue-cme-effects
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-08-2017 at 07:53 PM. Reason: Merged into reopened thread, closed in 2014 when it had 61,842v
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  19. #19
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    Forecast: cloudy with a chance of flaming debris.

    China's defunct and reportedly out-of-control Tiangong 1 space station is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere sometime this weekend. It poses only a slight risk to people and property on the ground, since most of the bus-size, 8.5-ton vehicle is expected to burn up on re-entry, although space agencies don't know exactly when or where that will happen.
    Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/busi...#storylink=cpy
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  20. #20
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    An extraordinary account of the impact space weather had on military operations in Vietnam in 1972 was found buried in the U.S. Navy archives, according to a newly published article in Space Weather.

    On August 4, 1972, the crew of a U.S. Task Force 77 aircraft flying near a naval minefield in the waters off Hon La observed 20 to 25 explosions over about 30 seconds. They also witnessed an additional 25 to 30 mud spots in the waters nearby.

    Destructor sea mines had been deployed here during Operation Pocket Money, a mining campaign launched in 1972 against principal North Vietnamese ports.

    There was no obvious reason why the mines should have detonated. But it has now emerged the U.S. Navy soon turned its attention to extreme solar activity at the time as a probable cause.

    The more we can understand the impact of such space weather on technology then the better we can be prepared for any future extreme solar activity.
    https://www.newsweek.com/massive-sol...am-war-1206502
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

Similar Threads

  1. Question 5: Cyber space (oh you know I had to ask at least one of these)
    By selil in forum TRADOC Senior Leaders Conference
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 08-14-2009, 03:27 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •