Under the current Status of Forces agreement that regulates US-Iraqi relations, all American forces are set to be removed from Iraq by 31st December, 2011. This clearly marks a watershed moment in Iraq’s post-regime change history. There are reasons for cautious optimism about the country’s future. Violence has steadily declined since the peak of inter-communal conflict in October 2006. The Iraqi armed forces will probably be able to guarantee that the current level of violence will not increase once US forces have departed.
Politically, in March 2010, Iraq successfully carried out its third set of national elections since regime change. After extended but largely peaceful wrangling, the incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki managed to secure a second term in office. However, Iraq also faces major unresolved problems that could well destabilise the country once US troops have departed.
Relations between the Iraqi government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in Irbil remains tense with many economic and political issues left unresolved. The grip that Nuri al Maliki and his party, Dawa have secured on Iraq’s security services leaves Iraq’s continued democracy in doubt. The new cabinet formed in December 2010 remains divided, ineffective and increasingly alienated from the population. The state itself cannot deliver the services, especially electricity, which the population demands. Finally, Iraq remains a deeply violent society with targeted assassinations commonplace in Baghdad.
The future of Iraq
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