From The Atlantic.

They blow each other up by mistake. They bungle even simple schemes. They get intimate with cows and donkeys. Our terrorist enemies trade on the perception that they’re well trained and religiously devout, but in fact, many are fools and perverts who are far less organized and sophisticated than we imagine. Can being more realistic about who our foes actually are help us stop the truly dangerous ones?
Sure, the enemy can make mistakes and apparently uses its most expendable men for its most hazardous, if not complicated, operations. This is apparently what qualifies as insight in open source analysis these days.