Taliban successes in the North

[Bill Moore]

Hat tip to a "lurker" for this AAN article, which opens with:

Link:http://www.aan-afghanistan.com/index.asp?id=3401

The departure of the Norwegian PRT I am sure was not the critical factor.

The introduction paragraph in bold is misleading, but the article itself is well worth the read. It clearly states the Taliban have been increasing their presence and activities in the North for the past four or so years. At the link below one can see that attacks in the North surged over 100% in most locations in 2010.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...046367482.html

I think what we're seeing reported in Northern Afghanistan is prologue for the post 2014 time frame. ALP outposts will be targeted and in many cases over run forcing security forces to become part of the Taliban or withdraw to defendable areas allowing the opposition freedom of movement throughout the country side (the Taliban will have the initiative)

The North is strategic for a lot of reasons so it shouldn't be a surprise that the Taliban want to control it. I suspect other factors driving an increase of activity in the region is increased Chinese investment (oil, minerals, etc.), and the likelihood they're paying considerable funds in protection money (Taliban tax system), which would make it a lucrative place to conduct operations.

One of the better quotes in the article in bold below that we all should heed. Bold highlights are mine.

He also drew attention to another facet of the story: to the relations between the Taleban and those who are supposed to fight them. One of his stories demonstrates the shakiness of allegiances in an environment like this and the truth of the phrase: ‘you can’t buy a commander, you can only rent him’. He told AAN about the former Taleb Mulla Maluk who joined the peace process four months ago and in return, was made ALP commander in the village of Khwaja Musa. Yet when the Taleban attacked this village during their surge in Pashtun Kot district, commander Maluk with his ten armed men surrendered his post and became Mulla Maluk once again.