CNN: Can Democracy Thrive in Africa?

[Dayuhan]

So you put the thugs of the world on notice not to chance their arm because if they do the rest of the world will come after them in no uncertain terms.

The problem with this, to put it bluntly, is that the rest of the world won't come after them, in any terms.

All this talk about coming after them, not tolerating, of expectations and demands... it all assumes that there's somebody out there with the will and the capacity to enforce demands, to enforce what will or will not be tolerated, to come after people. Who is that somebody supposed to be?

From an American perspective, before we talk about doing anything, there are some issues that have to be addressed... quite a few issues, actually:

There has to be something we can do. There's no point in talking about "doing something"; you need a clear idea of exactly what you propose to do, and what you expect to accomplish.

There has to be a realistic assessment of the probability of success, and the likelihood of unintended adverse consequences.

There has to be a clear assessment of likely costs, in money and in lives, and the expected benefit to us has to exceed the cost.

There has to be a clear assessment of political will: we are a democracy and our government is accountable to our populace. There's no point in starting what our voters won't let us finish.

The proposed action has to be consistent with our interests. We are not a charitable institution; we can't afford to be.

If any of these assessments comes up unfavorably, we will do nothing, and that's exactly what we should do. We don't have the right, the obligation, or the capacity to go charging around trying to fix other countries, in Africa or anywhere else.

I think you'll find that most countries with the capacity to "do something" run through similar assessments, with similar outcomes.

As to the options. It would be a start if the western world accepted that their so-called diplomacy towards Africa has been an abysmal failure and that if they took the time to learn about Africa they would realise that each circumstance is as different as chalk and cheese.

It's easy to point out failure... what do you propose that you think might succeed?

Of course every case is different. Why don't you select a single case and suggest a course of action? Might start with the most egregious problem cases... say, any of Guinea, Nigeria, Chad, DRC, Somalia, Zimbabwe. What exactly would you have us do, in light of the criteria reviewed above?

It's worth noting, as a start, that economic sanctions and aid conditionality have not been terribly successful at influencing the behaviour of bad governments. It's also worth noting that military intervention is not an option in any but an extreme case that directly impacts the interests of whoever is going to intervene: it's too expensive, the probability of success is too low, the cost/benefit equation is too unfavorable, and it is not politically acceptable in the countries that have the potential to intervene.