Increasing urbanization in the second/third worlds and it's effects on conflict

[Dayuhan]

Peripherally relevant comment from the "second world"...

Important to note, I think, that rapid urbanization is often a consequence of extreme poverty and economic stagnation in the countryside, generally driven and exacerbated by a combination of terrible infrastructure, rapid population growth, and the political and economic dominance of feudal elites who often use illegal means (such as armed force) to discourage political or economic competition.

People migrate to the city because it's seen as a place with opportunities... $1 a day may seem pretty miserable, but it's more than nothing a day, and there's always that chance of hooking onto something.

Excessive focus on the cities can distract from a desperately needed focus on rural development. Can't fix one without fixing the other... if there are 2 million unemployed in Manila and you gave each one a job tomorrow, in a week there'd be 4 million more arriving for their chance.

[Kevin23]

Peripherally relevant comment from the "second world"...

Important to note, I think, that rapid urbanization is often a consequence of extreme poverty and economic stagnation in the countryside, generally driven and exacerbated by a combination of terrible infrastructure, rapid population growth, and the political and economic dominance of feudal elites who often use illegal means (such as armed force) to discourage political or economic competition.

People migrate to the city because it's seen as a place with opportunities... $1 a day may seem pretty miserable, but it's more than nothing a day, and there's always that chance of hooking onto something.

Excessive focus on the cities can distract from a desperately needed focus on rural development. Can't fix one without fixing the other... if there are 2 million unemployed in Manila and you gave each one a job tomorrow, in a week there'd be 4 million more arriving for their chance.

Given that you live in a second/third world country, I would have to take your word for it. As I would also agree that the desperation of the even further impoverished and underdeveloped countryside leads masses of people to seek oppertunites somewhere else no matter what the risks might be, which would be just common sense also.

Also since you put the this in the context of rural development, then a focus on urban development as many 2nd/3rd world and even some 1st world countries are doing now would only fuel the current issues faced.

[Steve the Planner]

Kevin:

Dayuhan's comment: Can't deal with one without the other.

Problem is urbanization proceeds whether prosperity or not, but lack of prosperity really drives the negative consequences to the cities.

Look at Iraq. Rural to urban migration has been a permanent drive for decades, but it is kind of interesting because, like german farms, the farmers can live in a town, and travel out to the land. So their kids get schools, and they have centralized services and support, without crowding the big cities.

When you have serious drought, etc.., desperate folks crowd into broken city neighborhoods, and many bad things happen.

Was it easier to track down OBL and his friends in the wilds of Afghanistan, or in a mega city? I suspect the better shield was to be in a big, anonymous city slum.

Steve

[Dayuhan]

Given that you live in a second/third world country, I would have to take your word for it.

I wouldn't suggest making that a habit, but since my opinion is involved in this case I'll say it's a good move .

Also since you put the this in the context of rural development, then a focus on urban development as many 2nd/3rd world and even some 1st world countries are doing now would only fuel the current issues faced.

This is nothing new... Governments tend to be more concerned with instability in urban populations. A rebellion in the countryside is seen as a long term problem that you may be able to squash without anyone noticing, while an urban insurrection can throw you out tomorrow. Governments in many of these countries are not, alas, always concerned with long-term planning and addressing root causes.

Sometimes measures taken to pacify an urban population can exacerbate problems in the countryside... more than one short-sighted ruler has put price controls on food to please the urban consumer, not anticipating (or not caring about) the impact on rural producers.

[Redleg141]

The problem of urbanization begins with planning. If large urban city planners and their leadership fail to plan for the population boom, it can lead to over burdened resources for the government. This burden leaves the inhabitants without adequate housing, employment, and access to health care. The struggle with urban crime also becomes paramount for the local authorities to manage. All of these factors can certainly fuel conflict that could lead to spillover effects of civil war or even perhaps revolutionary movements.

[Steve the Planner]

Redlegs:

I'd focus a little more broadly.

On a very general basis, stay focused on Dayuhan's comments from the perspective of a rural inhabitant, who can, like Europe, prosper as a niche farmer in an urban truck garden shadow---about 50 miles depending on transport links.

That aside, rural inhabitants face starvation and death from weather, crop failures, market or market/political forces.

Two hypothetical responses to challenge: Huddle up into tight protective bands, or move to the city.

Best planning (if practical) may be to support small regional satellite towns that can help make far rural life more tenable. This in lieu of trying to fix the mega city.

Folks were intrigued by all the farms in Baghdad city. Look at the depopulating towns (Detroit), etc., as on the same path (boom bust) that drove some of this.... want to farm in Detroit? Plenty of small parcels unused.

At the 50,000 foot level, I am interested in the population settlement expansions across Pashtun historical territories, together with other pressures (radio, tv, etc...) on the old ways and links. How is that big mega-trend related to the conflicts we stumble around about down below?