Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
Steering the situation to an outcome that favors requires a good assessment of interest. I hope we take a long-term view and try to foster real independence, even if it means dealing with people we're uncomfortable with and dealing with governments that perceive their interests as diverging from ours. I think, for example, that it would be a very bad idea for us to push openly or covertly for exclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood from governance in Egypt.

I suspect that the next 5 years will be very difficult ones in Tunisia and Egypt. It would be lovely to see a clean transition to democracy and prosperity, but it's not likely to be so easy.
I agree that a favorable outcome requires a thorough analysis of each actor's interest. Westerners often overlook the fact that in non-democratic countries, pursuing one's political ambition is a life-or-death decision. In the USA, the candidate that looses the presidential elections does not have to fear for his life. The contrary is often the case for people who try to take power in non-democratic countries but fail. Under these circumstances, every actor's plans are determined as much by his ambition than by his fear of what will happen to them if he fails.

So what will the Egyptian political landscape look like six months from now? Three main actors will probably determine the outcome: secular groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Army. IMO, it is useful to analyze their plan A, their plan B, as well as their worst case scenario.

Plan A of the secular groups is to unite around a democratic project and lead Egypt towards freedom, security, and prosperity. Their worst case scenario is to be marginalized or oppressed by either a military autocrat or an Islamist regime. Their plan B is a power sharing arrangement between themselves and the Muslim Brotherhood to marginalize the regular army.

Plan A of the Muslim Brotherhood is an Islamic republic. However, the Muslim Brothers are pragmatic enough to realize this is not within reach at the moment. Such a project would require a popular Islamic army (like the Pasdaran in Iran) to balance the power of the regular army. At the moment, this is simply beyond their reach. Their worst case scenario is the emergence of a military autocrat like Nasser who removes them from the political scene. Their plan B is a power sharing arrangement between themselves and secular groups to marginalize the army.

Plan A of the Army is to found a military regime. However, the generals are not blind to the fact that this is precisely what the revolution was all about. At the moment, the generals are simply unable to put the genie back in the bottle. Their worst case scenario is the loss of all their priviliges as the prime political and economic power in Egypt. Their plan B is to bide their time and foster disagreements between the Muslim Brotherhood and secular groups and within secular groups themselves. Political instability will put the army in the role of arbitrator, a steppingstone towards a monopoly on political power.

I guess that, at the moment, all actors will opt for their Plan B. This will result in a system that is much more democratic than Moubarak's regime. However, it will be very fragile. Every actor will look for the first opportunity to move to Plan A and every actor will fear that the worst case scenario is just around the corner.