The Battle of Baghdad

[SWJED]

1 February Washington Post - Lie Low, Fighters Are Told by by Josh Partlow.

The instructions delivered by emissaries of anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr at a recent meeting in Baghdad were clear to militiaman Massan Abdul Hussein.

"They informed us to hide the weapons," Abdul Hussein recalled of the Jan. 21 meeting in the Shula neighborhood. "They said: 'We will not allow anyone to carry any arms, even if it's a pistol under their shirt. This is not acceptable.' "

Abdul Hussein, 30, considers himself a minor figure in the Mahdi Army, the powerful yet amorphous band of thousands of Sadr followers that the Pentagon said in November had "the greatest negative effect on the security situation in Iraq." But Abdul Hussein said the militia's foot soldiers had received a clear message from Sadr's headquarters in southern Iraq as Iraqi and U.S. troops prepared an intensified security crackdown in the capital...

In recent weeks, Mahdi Army leaders have left Baghdad to avoid being targeted, according to Iraqi and U.S. officials. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's office has received reports that some Mahdi Army leaders are moving to Iran and Syria, according to an aide to Maliki who spoke on condition of anonymity...

[SWJED]

1 February Washington Post - General: Shiite Militia Leaders Leaving Baghdad Strongholds by Tom Ricks.

Shiite militia leaders already appear to be leaving their strongholds in Baghdad in anticipation of the U.S. and Iraqi plan to increase the troop presence in the Iraqi capital, according to the top U.S. commander in the country.

"We have seen numerous indications Shia militia leaders will leave, or already have left, Sadr City to avoid capture by Iraqi and coalition security forces," Army Gen. George W. Casey Jr. said in a written statement submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee as part of his confirmation hearing today to be Army chief of staff...

If Sadr's militia does indeed attempt to wait out the security crackdown, Casey said, that "would clearly present a challenge" to the Iraqi government, which he said underscores the need to have Iraqi forces capable of bringing security to the country. Developing effective Iraqi forces has been a U.S. goal for more than three years. Casey noted earlier in his 46-page statement, which was filed yesterday with the committee, that one of the most significant mistakes that U.S. officials made in Iraq was overestimating the speed with which Iraqi forces could be developed...

[marct]

I don't really expect any answers to this now, but I really have to wonder if this "flight" was viewed as an opportunity by the CF. I would hope that these fleeing "leaders" would have a) been predicted and b) watched so that c) they could be grabbed.

On a related note, this type of flight actually fits in with Shiite mythography. I fully expect that there will be little feeling of "being abandoned" amongst the lower level members of the Mahdi army - they will probably view themselves as being a "glorious rear guard" allowing the leaders to escape, regroup and come back for final victory.

I really hope that no one is planing an IO campaign using a "rats leaving the sinking ship" metaphor, because it won't work. In fact, it will backfire badly and just reinforce the determination of the current members and expand their recruiting base. What might work, although it's a lowish probability, would be trying to make a symbolic tie in between the Mahdi army leaders and the Mongol governors from the 12th century or, possibly, a tie into the Ottoman period (maybe something tying into Murad the Mad's period - ca. 1630).

Marc

[Merv Benson]

It should be viewed as an opportunity to be seized. The same can be said for the retreat ordered by al Qaeda.With their departure, the government should have the opportunity to establish order and build on it so that it will be more difficult for them to return. That they can do it without bloodshed is a mixed blessing at this point, but destruction of the infrastructure of terrorism is still the goal. If the COIN objective of protecting the people is still the goal, then there departure should make that easier at lest in the near term.

[jcustis]

I really hope that no one is planing an IO campaign using a "rats leaving the sinking ship" metaphor, because it won't work. In fact, it will backfire badly and just reinforce the determination of the current members and expand their recruiting base. What might work, although it's a lowish probability, would be trying to make a symbolic tie in between the Mahdi army leaders and the Mongol governors from the 12th century or, possibly, a tie into the Ottoman period (maybe something tying into Murad the Mad's period - ca. 1630).

An excellent point I had not thought about, and a concrete example of the sort of inputs that would make a CST http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2063 valuable

[marct]

An excellent point I had not thought about, and a concrete example of the sort of inputs that would make a CST http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2063 valuable

I think some of Rob's ideas on CSTs have been formed by the discussions here . In many ways, the SWC is acting as a combined Red Team / CST at a general level (amongst other things ).

Marc

[Jedburgh]

Executive Summary

Iraqis on the move: Sectarian Displacement in Baghdad

...This report focuses on the alarming nature and pace of displacement trends over the last three months, sparked by the events around the Al-Sadr City car bombing in November 2006. In this short period alone, the number of displaced has increased by over 43 percent and only a few districts in the capital, such as Karrada and parts of Al-Mansoor, can be described as still mixed along sectarian lines....

Selected Findings and Conclusions