The Battle of Baghdad

[SWJED]

26 July New York Times - Battle for Baghdad Boils Down to Grabbing a Slice at a Time by Michael Gordon.

The Bush administration’s announcement on Tuesday that it will shift more forces to Baghdad is much more than a numbers game. It reflects a new strategy to reclaim control of the Iraqi capital and a new approach for deploying the troops.

The plan is to concentrate on specific neighborhoods rather than distribute the forces throughout the city, control movement in and out of sectors of the capital and try to sweep them of insurgents and violent militias.

In effect, the scheme is a version of the “ink blot” counterinsurgency strategy of grabbing a piece of terrain, stabilizing it and gradually expanding it. Only this time the objective is not a far-flung Iraqi city or town, but the capital, the seat of the fledgling government and home to some seven million Iraqis.

The plan has risks. It will divert American military police from deploying to Anbar Province, where the insurgency continues to rage. And an increased presence of American troops on the ground in Baghdad, where insurgent attacks have soared, carries the potential of more American casualties.

But Baghdad in military parlance is the “center of gravity” for the larger effort to secure the country...

By securing the city a sector at a time, American and Iraqi commanders hope to allow the Iraqi government to restore essential services and build support and legitimacy among an anxious public.

Once the areas are stabilized, the Iraqi police are to be brought in to maintain control, freeing the American and Iraqi military to extend their reach elsewhere. The Iraqi police are to be accompanied by American military police, who will act as advisers and trainers.

The Americans and the Iraqis are likely to start with the easiest sectors, calculating that they need to demonstrate a measure of success before taking on the most contested areas. Even as they expand their control the American and Iraqi forces will maintain the ability to conduct raids in less secure areas of the city.

The war is a contest of moves and countermoves, and the insurgents and the militias that the new American and Iraqi forces will confront can be expected to strike back...

[sgmgrumpy]

So we have this happening 2 times in the past 30 days. Should not be a surprise to anyone.

Below is the announcment from 14 June news article.

Iraq: Troops Flood Baghdad In Security Push

The Iraqi government has ordered thousands of extra troops onto the streets of Baghdad and tightened security measures in a fresh bid to curb violence in the capital.

June 14, 2006 (RFE/RL) – The newly formed Iraqi government today visibly stepped up the presence of Iraqi Army soldiers on the streets of the capital, Baghdad. It has also extended the hours of curfew and banned unauthorized citizens from carrying guns outside their homes.

The measures, introduced one day after they were announced, are to reassure the capital's residents of the new government's determination to tackle insurgents, to crack down on warring Sunni and Shi'a militiamen, and to reduce crime.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki says his new initiative will "provide security and confront terrorism and ... enable Iraqis to live in peace in Baghdad."

"No mercy toward those who show no mercy to our people." -- Iraqi Prime Minister al-MalikiHe also promised the security forces would be "very tough" and would show "no mercy toward those who show no mercy to our people."

Today the increased security presence in the streets is clear, with more checkpoints, longer queues of cars at checkpoints, and more troops visible on the streets.

However, some groups of gunmen have resisted the security sweep, with some violence reported in the north of Baghdad, particularly in the Al-Adhamiya district, where gunmen and security forces clashed. The Al-Adhamiya district is considered to be an insurgent stronghold and one of the most dangerous areas in the capital.

Clear Rules, Unclear Enemies

The new security campaign, dubbed "Going Forward Together," is the first such initiative launched by the new government since it took office a month ago.

The government said on July 13 that operation will involve more than 40,000 Iraqi and U.S.-led forces. U.S. forces are, however, reported to be taking a low-profile role.

The operation comes just a week after U.S. forces killed the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Mu'sab al-Zarqawi.

Al-Zarqawi's successor, identified as Abu Hamza al-Mujahir, is reported to have vowed revenge and to defeat "crusaders" and Shi'a" in Iraq.

A key aspect of the operation will be to reduce the number of unauthorized -- and often unidentifiable -- men carrying guns in the city.

General Abd al-Aziz Mohammad Jassem, Iraq's combined-forces operations chief, said that "anybody on the street, in his car or in his shop caught with a weapon, any kind of weapon, will be considered a terrorist" and "will be killed or captured."

Ordinary Iraqis say the problem of unknown, armed men roaming Baghdad cannot be overstated.

The gunmen include not only insurgents and criminals but also members of armed forces associated with various government ministries. The guards are often recruited from members or sympathizers of the armed wings of the political party that holds the ministry.

Elements in some of these forces are suspected of taking part in the ###-for-tat violence between Sunni and Shi'ite militias.

Doubts About The New Measures

It is unclear how the new security operation can crack down on such forces given their close ties to ruling parties.

Major General Mahdi al-Gharrawi, the commander of public order forces under the Interior Ministry, has however said there are plans for a single uniform to distinguish legitimate security officers.

As part of the security campaign, the nighttime curfew in the capital is being extended by two and-a-half hours, to run from 8:30 p.m. until 6 a.m. In effect, Baghdad residents must now remain indoors from dusk to dawn.

The exact number of people who die in Baghdad daily from insurgent attacks, sectarian killings, and shootings and kidnappings by criminal gangs is unknown.

But the scale of the killing is suggested by the number of bodies brought to Baghdad's central morgue.

Doctors at the morgue at Bab al-Mu'atham, near the city center, say they have been receiving more than 1,000 bodies each month this year.

A doctor at the morgue, Kais Hassan, says that is three to five times higher than the number received prior to 2003, when U.S.-led forces toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein.

[Jedburgh]

From CSIS, 26 Jul 06: The Gains and Risks in Sending in More US Troops

...The US and Iraqi forces are unlikely to be able to do more than buy time in Baghdad, or anywhere else, unless they can operate in a climate where there is a major move towards a new political bargain between Iraq's factions, where people can see reconciliation working at least at the top, and there is hope that the government is finally becoming effective. The political dimension must move in tandem with the military and security dimensions, and it is not. The fact that Iraqis voted to divide by sect and ethnicity—Arab Sunni, Arab Shi'ite, and Kurd—remains the driving reality. It is being increasingly compounded by intra-Shi'ite tensions, particularly Moqtada al-Sadr's factions but also tensions between Dawa and SCIRI.

This lack of the political dimension necessary to succeed in the military and security sectors is particularly critical in Baghdad and its surrounding areas—although Basra, Kirkuk, and Mosul all have their own growing divisions. The more mixed the city, the greater the tensions, and Baghdad has at least 5 million people, and possible now some 7 million in the greater Baghdad area and surrounding towns. Some 15-20% of Iraq's people are now in major urban areas which daily requires them to divide to survive...

[baghdadmike]

Just a thought, but we had the type of "ink blot" coverage in Baghdad during 2003-2004. The neighborhoods belonged to coalition troops with Iraqi counterparts working the streets alongside of us.

The city had its districts and the prevaling idea was that the US forces patrolled them and helped to keep the Iraqi Security Forces in charge and in the right locations.

Nearly all of the civil sites were guarded by Iraqis. The larger more important structures were guarded by joint CF-ISF troop elements. The CF patrolled the city.

Yes, there were issues, Iraqi Police stations blown up, checkpoints blown up. But those issues started to happen after the consolidation of troops.

A true ink blot or oil stain strategy has the outside force, the CF in this case, living in small enclaves within the larger Iraqi society. Living on large Forward Operating Bases and patrolling into the center of the city takes time. It takes the same routes. It shows the enemy that our addiction to Burger King and Green Beans is more important than long term success.

The Marines are and have been using a tactic the Army shied away from in late 2003, small outposts where a company had control of a sector. Where knowing your constituents meant soemthing and patrolling the local neighbor brought contacts.

COIN is so much about the boring police work that we do not seem to have the patience to stick with it as a military. The current return to Baghdad in force is the last chance we have to swing this center of gravity. I hope it succeeds.

Cheers

Mike