The Battle of Baghdad

[marct]

I don't really expect any answers to this now, but I really have to wonder if this "flight" was viewed as an opportunity by the CF. I would hope that these fleeing "leaders" would have a) been predicted and b) watched so that c) they could be grabbed.

On a related note, this type of flight actually fits in with Shiite mythography. I fully expect that there will be little feeling of "being abandoned" amongst the lower level members of the Mahdi army - they will probably view themselves as being a "glorious rear guard" allowing the leaders to escape, regroup and come back for final victory.

I really hope that no one is planing an IO campaign using a "rats leaving the sinking ship" metaphor, because it won't work. In fact, it will backfire badly and just reinforce the determination of the current members and expand their recruiting base. What might work, although it's a lowish probability, would be trying to make a symbolic tie in between the Mahdi army leaders and the Mongol governors from the 12th century or, possibly, a tie into the Ottoman period (maybe something tying into Murad the Mad's period - ca. 1630).

Marc

[Merv Benson]

It should be viewed as an opportunity to be seized. The same can be said for the retreat ordered by al Qaeda.With their departure, the government should have the opportunity to establish order and build on it so that it will be more difficult for them to return. That they can do it without bloodshed is a mixed blessing at this point, but destruction of the infrastructure of terrorism is still the goal. If the COIN objective of protecting the people is still the goal, then there departure should make that easier at lest in the near term.

[jcustis]

I really hope that no one is planing an IO campaign using a "rats leaving the sinking ship" metaphor, because it won't work. In fact, it will backfire badly and just reinforce the determination of the current members and expand their recruiting base. What might work, although it's a lowish probability, would be trying to make a symbolic tie in between the Mahdi army leaders and the Mongol governors from the 12th century or, possibly, a tie into the Ottoman period (maybe something tying into Murad the Mad's period - ca. 1630).

An excellent point I had not thought about, and a concrete example of the sort of inputs that would make a CST http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2063 valuable

[marct]

An excellent point I had not thought about, and a concrete example of the sort of inputs that would make a CST http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2063 valuable

I think some of Rob's ideas on CSTs have been formed by the discussions here . In many ways, the SWC is acting as a combined Red Team / CST at a general level (amongst other things ).

Marc

[Jedburgh]

Executive Summary

Iraqis on the move: Sectarian Displacement in Baghdad

...This report focuses on the alarming nature and pace of displacement trends over the last three months, sparked by the events around the Al-Sadr City car bombing in November 2006. In this short period alone, the number of displaced has increased by over 43 percent and only a few districts in the capital, such as Karrada and parts of Al-Mansoor, can be described as still mixed along sectarian lines....

Selected Findings and Conclusions

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 20 Apr 07: Securing Baghdad with Gated Communities

...Baghdad is a vast, sprawling city. Various sources estimate it at 5 to 7.5 million people, with much depending on whether the estimate covers the city limits or greater Baghdad area. It is divided by a relatively few main roads relative to current traffic demands, has significant river barriers and divisions, and further security barriers like the Green Zone.

Securing the entire city is virtually impossible. Baghdad is too important to the Iraqi economy to search every vehicle or control every access point, and the same applies to internal traffic. The city can only function with relatively constant flows of traffic between Sunni, Shi'ite, and mixed areas.

Gated communities may, therefore, be the only way to ensure relative physical security to given parts of the city without paralyzing it, or creating security systems that cannot function. They also allow some economy of force. Focusing on security in the most troubled areas still may involve more manpower than the US and ISF can deploy, but is far more practical than trying to both secure the entire perimeter and then secure the entire inner structure of the city....