There are a couple major changes for the new SL which makes it dangerous. It has fully embraced narco-trafficking and has shifted to a FARC model which allows it to purchase better equipment. This same strategy increased the size and capability of the FARC.

The second change is SL’s move toward a kinder gentler insurgency. SL has been launching some pretty serious attacks on police and military units but unlike its campaign in the 90s it is not inflicting massive violence on the general population. In fact it is using increased drug money profits to do civic projects and buy supplies from locals. This is dangerous because in the 90s SL’s violence against the people helped spawn the rondas campesinas which were essential in the defeat of SL. Now the RC guys (many of them are cocaleros) are less inclined to put their neck out to fight a more benevolent SL.

As far as this becoming a larger conflict, I think that depends on if the Peruvian government can fix some of their intel problems and hunt down SL’s units. However, more importantly it depends on if they can bring a whole of government approach to the VRAE and Huallaga which still live in disconnected poverty.