The Future of War

[Adam L]

The argument is actually made on the basis of 450 years of quantitative data--in other words, interbellum periods are part of the data set.

I understand that. I am simply agreeing that it is during interbellum periods that there is almost always a continuous stream of argumentation that "major state" warfare is on the decline.

I have a great many problems with Lebow's work (not just this one in particular.) I'll try to make time in the next couple of days to read the article in detail and hopefully articulate my thoughts (if I can get enough sleep .) Let's just say that I have a great many problems with his "quantitative data."

Adam L

[Fuchs]

I do often remind others that Germany lived in peace for 43 years until the #### did hit the fan and WW1 broke out.
We had only (comparably few) colonial conflicts with indigenous people (few tribes) during that period.

It did not help my grand-grandfather's generation in 1914.

[Jimbo]

Arguements about shared economic interests (pre-WWI) or sociological/ideological hopefulness (Kellog-Briand crew) making the likelyhood of interstate warfare less likely tend to be disproven by history.