Iraq Isn't the Philippines

[pinoyme]

Hi Mr. Bill:

The NPA getting stronger?
I doubt it.

In most cases, the NPA is now more of an extortionist organization--perhaps one of the world's largest. If it can be strictly classified as a Communist insurgent group, then so can the Cosa Nostra. :=)

Yes, it is true that there still are pockets of Maoist insurgency--particularly in
the most depressed areas of the Philippines. And their infrastructure has taken deep roots.

Nonetheless, several parts of the Philippines are growing economically. This is due to the fact that the country has become India's most formidable competitor with regardsto offshoring. And the remittances of Filipino guest workers abroad--Overseas Filipino Workers or OFWs in local parlance--are keeping most of the masses from getting restive.

My personal take on the situation is that the NPA insurgency should be treated as similar to diabetes. Manage it well for now with the hope that inevitably something will happen to have it cured.

Continued economic growth will take away the NPA's appeal.

Anyway, the Philippines has a long tradition of rural banditry--both of the social and brigand type. It has also had a long history of failed peasant revolts stretching back to the 17th century.

It is perhaps because of this that the NPA lives on for now.

But unlike in the 1970s and 1980s, it now has very little appeal to today's students. The middle class too is indifferent to the Maoist cause.

Cheers and Belated Happy Thanksgiving.

[victory]

Hello Mr. Pinoyme,

Don't be afraid to share your knowledge. I can understand how uncomfortable it could be for Filipinos.

Going back to the subject, were the Filipinos ethnically divided? (Absent US intervention)

In reading America and Guerrilla Warfare from Anthony Joes, it seemed as Filipinos were not as divided as Iraqis are now and that religion was not a central problem. My point here is that despite the similarities, we can't rely completely on the Philippine-American model because of these factors.

PS: I visit manila

[Steve Blair]

Victory,

I don't think you can ever rely completely on ANY comparison, since each historical event is going to have its own unique components. But it is possible (in my view) to examine a number of situations and extract things of value. For example, I think there are still lessons to be learned from Vietnam regarding ethnic divisions and the success (or failure) of COIN. And with the Philippines, we could still learn much about dealing with a hostile (generally speaking) population and ways to break up that hostility based on class.

And pinoyme, keep posting! I find your posts very insightful regarding the Philippine experience and hope to see more of them.

[pinoyme]

Hi:


The Philippines being an archipelago of 7000 islands (exact number depends on whether it's low or high tide), there has always been regionalism here.

But there has never been ethnic hatred.

Frankly speaking, I doubt if most of the US Army's (and that of some USMCs) tactics during the Philippine-American War could be used in Iraq.

One factor that most likely caused the middle class to go over en masse to the American side was that many of them did not think the Philippine revolutionary army had a chance.

The First Philippine Republic received no international support. And this was the Age of Imperialism, not the age of former colonies establishing themselves as independent republics.

Moreover, the middle class always had modest demands. It was only when the Spanish government started frustrating them and imprisoning, exiling, and even executing them for these that they went over to revolutionary mode.

The decision to shift to guerrilla warfare was made after initial battles showed the Philippine revolutionary army was outclassed in terms of military skills, logistics, and heavy equipment. The Battle of La Loma, then a suburb north of Manila--which was so one-sided in casualties illustrated this.

And this fact Amercians must finally face: Tortures and hamlettings were widely employed. General Arthur MacArthur efficiently, ruthelessly, and effectively suppressed news reporting on these matters.

Cheers.

[Jedburgh]

On the Huk Rebellion:

DoD, Dec 62: Lessons Learned: The Philippines, 1946-1953


Rand, Aug 70: The Huk Rebellion in the Philippines: Quantitative Approaches

...Explanations of insurgent control of given areas have varied from the socio-economic to the quasi-military. This study examines alternative statistical models that try to assess the causal factors involved in insurgent control in central Luzon...

...All of the formal models suggest that what insurgents do -- their terror and coercion -- is a stronger explanation of current insurgent control than is the socio-economic status of the population...

[SWJED]

On the Huk Rebellion:

DoD, Dec 62: Lessons Learned: The Philippines, 1946-1953


Rand, Aug 70: The Huk Rebellion in the Philippines: Quantitative Approaches

Sent in by Jedburgh for posting on the SWJ / SWC - Counter-guerrilla Operations in the Philippines, 1946-1953. A seminar on the Huk campaign held at Fort Bragg, NC, 15 June 1961.

[pinoyme]

Hi:

There is a book, "The Huk Rebellion" based on what was originally a doctoral dissertation for a Phd in political science.

It was written by a political scientist, an American whose name I unfortunately am unsure if I can spell correctly at this moment of posting. I came across it more than 20 years ago. I think its author was Dr. Bernard Kirklievett.

His analysis prompted a reply from Dr. Jesus Lava, former chairman of the politburo of the old Partido Komunista ng Pilipinas. It was written in Tagalog by this doctor of medicine who was among the leaders of the Filipino Communists from the mid-1930s to the 1950s. He died in February 2002.

I believe students of COIN should read these two works also if they wish to gain insights on the Huk rebellion and its continuing relevance to COIN issues.

I wish I could now download the RAND and other articles on the Huk Rebellion. Unfortunately, the effects of the Taiwan quake on the Internet still continue in the Philippines, making connectivity still infinitely slow. *sigh*

Anyway, Cheers.