Quote Originally Posted by Cliff View Post
What are you basing this on? I would argue that surprise is MORE likely when there are a lot of planes around... you say that few fighters were able to surprise, but 80% of kills resulted from surprise... the F-22 can surprise someone because it is stealthy!
The context was WVR combat, and the huge F-22 isn't stealthy WVR at all.

No one has the aircraft or ability (these days) to put 300 aircraft in one airspace. Airfields are a big LIMFAC, as you can't exactly take an F-22 or T-50 off from a grass strip like a Mustang or Spit. Even if you could launch that many aircraft it would be almost unsafe - coordination would be difficult at best.
You are mistaken here. Soviet designs can routinely operate from grass airfields. Grass strips were an integral part of their airbase layout and Cold War fighters were meant to disperse to grass airfields (in part sports airfields). The MiG-29 is elaborately prepared for such operation (see the extra intakes) and Su-27 can operate from grass airfields as well afaik. It's not known yet whether the PAK-FA will have that capability or not.
There are enough roads in almost all countries anyway.

Furthermore, the WP had almost unbelievable alert reaction times - including drills for very rapid launch of entire squadrons from bunkers into the air. They were taxiing at up to 60 km/h with little spacing. Eight minutes between alert with all fighters in protected positions till whole squadron in the air were a standard requirement, and many squadrons in central Europe were faster than that!

300 combat aircraft at once is well out of reach for the U.S. forces on Okinawa and even for a four CVN fleet, but it's not at all unrealistic for Russians or Chinese. All it takes is the intent to to it, for it is clearly possible given their aircraft quantities, the availability of (provisional) airfields and the demonstrated performance of WP fighter squadrons in East Germany.

Pulsing saturation attacks are a great counter-tactic to a 24/7 air supremacy attempt with CAPs, for it defeats the CAPs and other defences through saturation and creates local/temporary air superiority.

That said, Red Flag (Alaska and Nellis), Northern Edge, and like exercises typically involve large numbers of aircraft. Northern Edge involved 60+ aircraft at a time, which is about as large a force as anyone is likely to be able to concentrate at a given location.
I simply consider this to be excessively optimistic and unrealistic. IIRC even the Israelis had more aircraft over Lebanon in 1982 than that, at several times.

I think you underestimate how good the USAF Aggressors are, Fuchs! Why do you think anyone would publicize how to defeat their own systems?
I don't, you misread my reply. The USAF has no real motivation to defeat the F-22, while others have. It's just reasonable to expect that others are more prepared to defeat it (and the USAF is accordingly not aware about the actual relative strength of the F-22).

How many Mirages do you lose a year due to (single) engine failure? What's that cost you?
Not many. The probability of a total engine failure is almost exactly halved if you have only one instead of two engines.
A smaller quantity of fighters means on the other hand a lesser distribution of risk of other accidents (which is relevant especially for small air forces which -surprise- tend to favour single engine fighters).