Quote Originally Posted by Cole View Post
Will couch my casually informed discussion in China terms as DPRK and Iran don't pose significant SAM or air-to-air threats.

Your own link shows an F-16 with external tanks and weapons has a combat radius of 630nm...and presumably will either dump the tanks repeatedly (and create a logistics problem) or live with the radar, reduced range, and performance penalty. Meanwhile, the F-35 to achieve 728nm will dump fewer tanks, then has a clean internal load profile, better turning performance, and more speed/acceleration...and can survive S300/S400 missiles and long range radar AAM. That seems to surpass the F-22 as there is no FB-22.
F-22 combat radius, per the article, is approx 600ish nm. Which is pretty comparable to F-35... and all the rest of the fighters. The speed difference matters too.. the F-35 is not as fast as the F-22.

The F/A-18E/F will be closer to Taiwan than the F-22/F-35 that are taking off most likely from Guam since mainland Japan, Korea, and Okinawa will be too risky from a Chinese long range missile standpoint. The Naval sea-to-air threat won't last long and keeping F/A-18E/F over Taiwan just outside long range Chinese SAM range will easily handle older Chinese aircraft with AWACs vectoring F-22/F-35to the newer stuff. Would guess eventually the F-35 will have conformal fuel tanks to match F-15E and certainly would not want to try to bomb mainland China airfields or amphibious ships with an F-15E given the SAM threat.
The F-18s will be closer... but again they have a short range (369nm legacy, 520 Super Hornet - and both of those are with 3 external tanks!). The better the Chinese Navy gets, and the more anti-ship ABMs become credible, the less help the carrier can be - because you end up spending more and more effort protecting the boat and less effort projecting power. CFTs on F-35 are unlikely as it would ruin the stealth.

Finally, one of these days, a KC-X tanker will be able to refuel all of the above to keep them on station and top off replacement KC-Xs before heading home. I still believe a C-17/C-130 could be modified to have a hydraulic arm extend out the rear of the open ramp and lift a missile pod under and into both the F-35/F-22...at a much cheaper price than new F-22s.
This is not really feasible just yet... you would have to develop some way of towing the aircraft being re-armed or connecting some sort of platform to it. More likely to see some sort of directed energy weapon before you see this...

There is talk of F-35 carrying 6 AMRAAM internally and even with just four, you send two flights of four covering a wider CAP than a single flight of four F-22s. The two flights of F-35 would be close enough together that with AIM-120D capability they would be mutually reinforcing. Its largely irrelevant anyway because in many cases, both F-22 and F-35 will be carrying just 2 AMRAAM and 8 Small Diameter Bomb 1 or 2. Surmise that you don't have to beat their numbers in the air if you bomb. JASSM-ER, and Tomahawk their runways.
My point is that F-35s are going to be doing a lot of other jobs... some will be A-A configured but most will need to carry other weapons, as you point out.

Again, I love air and seapower, but suspect we have more than enough of both given our carrier and quality sub numbers and coming F-35 quantities. The counter-missile threat is more problematic (and the poor country's air force) than the counter-air threat...but that too is being addressed. Don't necessarily reject all EBO arguments in many potential conflicts. Certainly can't envision putting land forces on mainland China, and just bombing China rail lines and highways (see the recent problem with 10-day traffic jams?), ports, and establishing a fuel ship blockade in the Straits of Mallaca would be sufficient to end the war.
Agree on the effects. Not sure on the numbers... China is producing F-10s, F-11Bs, and FB-7s... Our first IOC F-35s are in 2012, with the first deployment in 2014... at best...

I think there is a window of risk over the next 5-7 years. I think you are overestimating our advantage, and underestimating the work other folks have done.

V/R,

Cliff