Posted by Graycap,

Anyway I'd like to submit to your attention some kind of different problem with COIN and domestic policy: organized crime.

In Italy we have some regions that are in some kind of extra territorial status. Nothing seems bad: there are elections, there is an administration etc.. But everything is controlled by organized crime. I've came to think of it like a won insurrection. Without too much violence, even if we must remeber the fallen heroes. We reached the IED stage and after that everything calmed down.

The provocation: which kind of strategy, if not COIN, must be envisaged?

Bernard Fall, when had to explain why military evalutions of pink area were futile, said: look at taxes. When no more tax income come from a village that village have flipped side. In south Italy we have entire towns with no income taxes....
Graycap, thanks for this post. Italy has always fascinated me. In the north you have a very modern and successful society, while in the south you something that looks like parts of Africa or South America. The most recent crisis in southern Italy is the new garbage crisis, and now apparently the national government is going to step in take over.

I also read a report that a certain percentage of Italy's GNP comes from organized crime (I believe it was 10% or so), and I suspect that means 80% plus of the GNP for the south, and of course they're not paying taxes, because who is going to claim money received through crime?

I actually think Bob's World's claims of a failure of government are very appropriate here. The Italians I have met in the North can't stand the south and even have a political party that advocates separating the south because they see the South as more culturalll aligned with a corrupt African country than the true Italy in the North (Rome and further north of). I watch these problems in the news and wonder where the national government is? Why don't they respond? Why doesn't the national government have the courage to wipe out organized crime in southern Italy (or at least suppress it)? Why are these people living in such poverty, while northern Italy is rich?

I don't see how a modern nation such as Italy can ignore half its populace and simply claim they're not really Italians. I agree the approach will be much COIN like. National security forces will have to take over local governments and purge the corrupt members out, and then transition to a legitimate government. Economic development in the South is a must. Italy can't be a great nation until it addresses its internal problems. Eventually the problems in the South will become to large to ignore, and they'll even be tougher to solve then.