Ok, some points to consider:

  1. LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.
  2. Currently, there is no operational Iranian missile with the reach to hit Miami from Venezuela. The Sajjil-2, which a range of 2200km, may be operational in a couple of years.
  3. It's possible Iran may develop a 3700km range missile within the next ten years. Assuming such a missile is launched from the northern-most point in Venezuela, every city in an arc from Maine to Detroit and down to San Antonio could be hit. At this point, such a missile is completely theoretical.
  4. It's important to note that the intelligence community and ballistic missile experts consistently overestimate the development timelines for foreign ballistic missiles. Politically-motivated estimates, like the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, have an even worse track record.


Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon, but also a delivery vehicle of at least 3000km sometime in the next decade, which is probably optimistic. We then have to assume that Iran is willing to essentially give these rare and extremely valuable golden eggs to Venezuela and that Venezuela would be willing to accept them. In order to make this happen, both countries would have to explicitly violate a host of treaties. For example, Venezuela has ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco.

Could it happen? Sure, anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me - a tremendous risk for both countries for little benefit.

It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.