Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition? (New title)

[AdamG]

Among the two most alarming revelations is the already completed sale and delivery, to Venezuela by Russia, of nearly 2,000 advanced, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles capable of hitting aircraft as high as 19,000 feet. Equally and perhaps more alarming is an October agreement between Iran and Venezuela. The agreement establishes a joint ground-to-ground missile base on Venezuelan soil and calls for the sharing of missile technology and the training of technicians and officers. In addition, Venezuela may use the missiles as it chooses for “national needs” and in case of “emergency.” Several types of missiles will be deployed, giving Venezuela the ability to strike targets throughout South and Central America and throughout the U.S.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/iran-sh...-to-venezuela/

Note scale of Venezuelan oil imports to US here
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p...nt/import.html

[AdamG]

Iran is planning to place medium-range missiles on Venezuelan soil, based on western information sources[1], according to an article in the German daily, Die Welt, of November 25, 2010. According to the article, an agreement between the two countries was signed during the last visit o Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran on October19, 2010. The previously undisclosed contract provides for the establishment of a jointly operated military base in Venezuela, and the joint development of ground-to-ground missiles.

At a moment when NATO members found an agreement, in the recent Lisbon summit (19-20 November 2010), to develop a Missile Defence capability to protect NATO's populations and territories in Europe against ballistic missile attacks from the East (namely, Iran), Iran's counter-move consists in establishing a strategic base in the South American continent - in the United States's soft underbelly.

According to Die Welt, Venezuela has agreed to allow Iran to establish a military base manned by Iranian missile officers, soldiers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Venezuelan missile officers. In addition, Iran has given permission for the missiles to be used in case of an "emergency". In return, the agreement states that Venezuela can use these facilities for "national needs" – radically increasing the threat to neighbors like Colombia. The German daily claims that according to the agreement, Iranian Shahab 3 (range 1300-1500 km), Scud-B (285-330 km) and Scud-C (300, 500 and 700 km) will be deployed in the proposed base. It says that Iran also pledged to help Venezuela in rocket technology expertise, including intensive training of officers

http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-m...s-in-venezuela

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

[AdamG]

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

In the month since this article appeared, I've seen the peanut gallery assertions that it's mere Cold War style propaganda. So yes, let's look back to 1962...
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...article06.html

[slapout9]

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

I hope not, we are nowhere near as prepared to survive as we were back then.

[AdamG]

AdamG,Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.
.

Assuming the source was US intelligence.

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned Monday that Iran's ties with Venezuela posed a threat to the entire world, and in particular the United States.

"Venezuela is Iran’s advance outpost on the Latin American continent. The two countries have joined together to create an axis of conventional and nuclear terror [that threatens] not only the Middle East, but also the continent of America, and the United States in particular," Ayalon told a group of some two dozen journalists from Latin American countries.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...world-1.330419

*

DFM Ayalon: A nuclear Iran will lead to a nuclear Venezuela right in the United States’ backyard

http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/About+the+...3_Dec_2010.htm

[Entropy]

Ok, some points to consider:

1. LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.
   
2. Currently, there is no operational Iranian missile with the reach to hit Miami from Venezuela. The Sajjil-2, which a range of 2200km, may be operational in a couple of years.
   
3. It's possible Iran may develop a 3700km range missile within the next ten years. Assuming such a missile is launched from the northern-most point in Venezuela, every city in an arc from Maine to Detroit and down to San Antonio could be hit. At this point, such a missile is completely theoretical.
   
4. It's important to note that the intelligence community and ballistic missile experts consistently overestimate the development timelines for foreign ballistic missiles. Politically-motivated estimates, like the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, have an even worse track record.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon, but also a delivery vehicle of at least 3000km sometime in the next decade, which is probably optimistic. We then have to assume that Iran is willing to essentially give these rare and extremely valuable golden eggs to Venezuela and that Venezuela would be willing to accept them. In order to make this happen, both countries would have to explicitly violate a host of treaties. For example, Venezuela has ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco.

Could it happen? Sure, anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me - a tremendous risk for both countries for little benefit.

It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

[Ken White]

...anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me...
It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

Yes, Or wildly wishful thinking (dreaming?) on the part of the first two and and effort to get the big guy on side from the latter...

I never cease to be amazed at the dotty things that seem to get people unduly excited.

[AdamG]

Ok, some points to consider:

[LIST=1][*]LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon,

Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

[Entropy]

Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.