Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition? (New title)

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

[AdamG]

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

In the month since this article appeared, I've seen the peanut gallery assertions that it's mere Cold War style propaganda. So yes, let's look back to 1962...
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...article06.html

[slapout9]

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

I hope not, we are nowhere near as prepared to survive as we were back then.

[AdamG]

AdamG,Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.
.

Assuming the source was US intelligence.

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned Monday that Iran's ties with Venezuela posed a threat to the entire world, and in particular the United States.

"Venezuela is Iran’s advance outpost on the Latin American continent. The two countries have joined together to create an axis of conventional and nuclear terror [that threatens] not only the Middle East, but also the continent of America, and the United States in particular," Ayalon told a group of some two dozen journalists from Latin American countries.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...world-1.330419

*

DFM Ayalon: A nuclear Iran will lead to a nuclear Venezuela right in the United States’ backyard

http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/About+the+...3_Dec_2010.htm

[Entropy]

Ok, some points to consider:

1. LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.
   
2. Currently, there is no operational Iranian missile with the reach to hit Miami from Venezuela. The Sajjil-2, which a range of 2200km, may be operational in a couple of years.
   
3. It's possible Iran may develop a 3700km range missile within the next ten years. Assuming such a missile is launched from the northern-most point in Venezuela, every city in an arc from Maine to Detroit and down to San Antonio could be hit. At this point, such a missile is completely theoretical.
   
4. It's important to note that the intelligence community and ballistic missile experts consistently overestimate the development timelines for foreign ballistic missiles. Politically-motivated estimates, like the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, have an even worse track record.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon, but also a delivery vehicle of at least 3000km sometime in the next decade, which is probably optimistic. We then have to assume that Iran is willing to essentially give these rare and extremely valuable golden eggs to Venezuela and that Venezuela would be willing to accept them. In order to make this happen, both countries would have to explicitly violate a host of treaties. For example, Venezuela has ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco.

Could it happen? Sure, anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me - a tremendous risk for both countries for little benefit.

It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

[Ken White]

...anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me...
It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

Yes, Or wildly wishful thinking (dreaming?) on the part of the first two and and effort to get the big guy on side from the latter...

I never cease to be amazed at the dotty things that seem to get people unduly excited.

[AdamG]

Ok, some points to consider:

[LIST=1][*]LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon,

Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

[Entropy]

Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.

[AdamG]

Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

Gotta do training, storage and logistics somewhere. The missile(s) don't care where they're launched.

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.

You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc

[Entropy]

You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm

Theoretically yes. A lot of things are theoretically possible. Until I see some evidence that someone, especially the Iranians, are developing such a weapon then I'm not going to worry about it too much. Not only that, but why would Iran EMP a US city? Under what scenario or circumstances would the Iranians, or anyone else, use such a weapon? They burn out some electronics and then what?

Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/

Has anyone, anywhere actually tried to launch a scud off a ship? This is another case of something that is possible in theory, very difficult in practice and of limited utility. This isn't a capability that could be done without testing - when I see Iran or any other nation start trying to launch ballistic missiles off of freighters, then I will begin to take this "theat" seriously.

You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc

We had over 30 years to watch and study the current Iranian government. I don't see much there that suggests the Iranians are irrational actors.