The history of the concept of the 'conflict curve'

[sdspieg]

Does anybody here know the origins of the 'conflict curve' concept (or the stages of a conflict)? I've been struck for some time now by the (mostly implicit) power this concept has acquired in our thinking about wars and conflicts. In my own career, I started observing the use of the more general concept probably sometime in mid- to late-90s. This then at some point transformed into the '4 phases' etc.

But does anybody know who first drew the 'hump' with the stages on the x-, and the level of violence on the y-axis?

-Stephan

[Fuchs]

I assume you mean the concept which ends with occupation, not Mao's stages of a people's war?


I encountered it for the first time around 2004 and don't remember having seen older sources pointing at it either.

[M-A Lagrange]

The best I have is a 2005 doc:
http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/d...r_ConfPrev.pdf
But that might be another model because I have seen the conflict curve or conflict lifetime model before 2005.

[jmm99]

Hey sdspieg,

It might help if you specified the "conflict curve", since there are more than one.

E.g., the math-oriented power series conflict curves, mentioned by Surferbeetle, Applied math, one step at a time..., with link to Mathematics of War. In the civilian context, that construct goes back to the 1960s, e.g., Some Evidence in Support of a Power Theory of Conflict.

or, e.g., as in the US Institute of Peace, Certificate Course in Conflict Analysis, which includes Lund's The Curve of Conflict (from his book, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy).

Regards

Mike

[Bob's World]

There is a pretty good insurgency model out there as well...

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=...1t:429,r:1,s:0

[sdspieg]

I apologize - I should have been more precise. The 'hump' I refer to is the one which usually has time on the x-axis (before the conflict, during, after the conflict), and either intensity, or utilization of force, or something of that sort on the y-axis.
Attached are two examples of some slides I used in the period 2000-2002 - based on work we did at RAND Europe for some European MoDs. One was used to illustrate choices that countries could make about where in the 'conflict hump' they wanted to contribute forces (e.g. a bit throughout the hump. or only in the 'heavy lifting' stages, or just in the 'mopping up' stage, etc. The other was used to illustrate the presumed benefits of network-centrism: that countries would be able to 'shift' the hump to the left (intervening more quickly), and to also make it 'shorter' (taking over control more quickly and so being able to draw down more quickly). Hans Binnendijk and Stu Johnosn also used it to illustrate what they called the 'stabilization and reconstruction gap' (see http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/...ab_rec_ops.pdf - pp. 607). And since then, the idea has been used for the different phases of a conflict.

Hope this provides some more clarity about the 'conflict curve' concept that I'm now trying to retrace the pedigree of. I will now look into some of your suggestions - for which already my thanks.

-Stephan