Like any other visual aids, these curves are (should be) discussion guides. E.g., this second one illustrates altering the initial conditions to shift and reshape the more violent part of the curve.

Conflict%20hump%202.jpg

The point of my post was that an incumbant government faced with an insurgency (or possible insurgency) should firstly think of its strategic base areas and change what can be changed. Thus, first look to concepts of dissuade, deter and stabilize as necessary first steps (much more of the political struggle).

My only problem with these and other charts (incl. mine) is that they appear to be linear. In reality we deal with multiple dimensions.

Regards

Mike