Electrification and security

[Yadernye]

Hello all,

A colleague of mine at National Defense University asked if I knew of any reports or data sets that address the relationship between electrification and security at the local or national level. The information does not have to be country-specific; anything related to Afghanistan or Iraq would be great. The main idea he is looking into is if there is any connection between providing power and security in a conflict zone.

I have not seen anything and I wondered if anyone here had come across anything along those lines.

Cheers,

Yadernye

[slapout9]

Naturally Electricity and Security was thought about by the US Army Corps of Engineers. and naturally the running dog Capitalist protection society killed it because it was considerer Communism run wild.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_A...Power_Alliance

short video of NAWAPA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=IE&h...&v=ORRUJyt7AIo

[Yadernye]

Let me see if I can clarify a bit. The question my colleague hopes to address is whether aid money should be invested in a large-scale electrical production facility, or if it should be used to provide generators for the population.

To help answer this, he is seeking studies or data that demonstrate whether the provision of x number of killowatts or x number of generators directly resulted in a measureable drop in insurgent attacks or an improvement in the security situation.

The provision of basic services, such as electricity, is constantly mentioned as a fundamental aspect of successful COIN. Has a quantifiable relationship between electricification and security actually been demonstrated?

[Rex Brynen]

The provision of basic services, such as electricity, is constantly mentioned as a fundamental aspect of successful COIN. Has a quantifiable relationship between electricification and security actually been demonstrated?

Could it even be quantified? Given the presence of so many relevant variables (some of which would covary with electricity provision), it seems to me that a quantitative approach would only be of limited value.

On the other hand, there is Lenin's famous dictum that "Communism is Soviet power plus the electrification of the whole country..."

[Seahorse]

Quantitative measues are beset with problems in trying to assess a complex dynamic such as electrification = security.

In my own experience in Afghanistan, the situation varies by region and locality. Some related stories to amplify the situation and provide simple advice regarding these inter-related issues.

In Kunduz province the Germans made several efforts to provide electrification throughout the area, however one of their micro-generation solutions was highly technical in nature, which meant, when they break down (often)- no parts, no expertise and no electricity. The result was very short term benefits and many derelict generators. Advice: make electrification simple, accessible and maintainable through local means, tools and knowledge (micro-hydro generation, wind, bio-gas systems, fuel generators). Solar is questionable without attendent training and education.

In rural areas electrification is highly variable and all available resources are shared, borrowed, bartered or stolen outright. In many cases electricity is not viewed as a necessity because it is an unreliable or unattainable resource; the populace have few in any appliances, no substantial lighting, no real need for electricity other than as a luxury for TV, radio, internet. In many cases, people remove car batteries and rig them in the home at night for short periods of time to run TVs, charge Laptops and Cell Phones, and then recharge the battery the next day. Some privileged, electrified households invite others to enjoy the benefits of electricity in return for favors and influence. Where electrification exists, it is preyed upon and scavenged fully to distribute the power as widely as possible. Advice: There is a need to understand the overall requirement and current use of electricity by the populace in order to determine the 'power' brokers (forgive the pun) in the area and how efforts can influence (+ or -) security. If the electrification is a direct and net benefit to the people, they may protect it from sabotage and assume authority and responsibility for it. Potentially district centres or schools could be electrified and networked with charging stations, Internet Cafe services as well as TV and Radio services in order to draw people to the them to use or power or charge their own equipment, and in turn access information services that can increase security and promote government trust etc.

Urban areas potentially receive the greatest benefit since electrification supports industrialisation and commerce. It also supports corruption. I attended a dinner with many NGOs and Embassy personnel in Kabul and one discussion centred on how much bribe money ($600 Euros eg.) each was required to pay his/her landlord monthly to ensure their residence didn't receive any brown outs and they could enjoy reliable electricity to power their luxuries, like air conditioners. I asked this group, "Who do you think is doing without when you intentionally support this type of corruption?" Their comfort was deemed more important than Afghan needs because on the whole they believed they were providing a net benefit. I wonder what the Afghans in and around their compounds thought. Advice: understand the dynamics of power generation and use, implement means to counter corruption INCLUDING by ourselves and allies. Assess and provide independent means to power our own requirements.

Urban areas are also vulnerable to scrap metal scavenging which means that hydro distribution systems are easily disrupted by individuals cutting wires and re-cycling the copper for financial gain. Advice: residents throughout the distribution network must receive direct benefits from the service in order to garner support in ensuring the integrity of the network.

The large Kajaki Dam project in Helmand represents an interesting case study. This large hydro-electric facility supplies both Helemand and many parts of Kandahar City. The re-construction of this facility is deemed a priority for security and has had many security incidents, however it has continuosly progressed. I recently heard that residents benefiting from the electricity are in some cases being taxed by insurgents for allowing the power to reach them. Advice: determine the insurgent's strategies and adopt the means to counter their efforts.

I am aware of one large cement factory which was extremely successful and employed many locals, however there was only enough electrification to run a single four hour shift daily. In this case, electrification to permit this facility to run 24/7 would have had many of the security benefits we seek: large reliable employment base for fighting age males, a product for supporting development construction, an export commodity, generation of tax revenues, and secondary market benefits of a reliable paid workforce. (A political angle to this however is, Afghan Cement is reportedly of very high quality but would interfere with lower quality, but significant Pakistani imports, so there exists regional barriers to developing such an industry. Advice: electrification which supports industrialisation and employment are a net benefit to increasing security - this should be a higher priority then rural electrification.

These are a few examples that illustrate the tension between electrification and security.

[davidbfpo]

Seahorse,

Partial quote:

The large Kajaki Dam project in Helmand represents an interesting case study. This large hydro-electric facility supplies both Helemand and many parts of Kandahar City. The re-construction of this facility is deemed a priority for security and has had many security incidents, however it has continuosly progressed.

The last report I saw stated the massive convoy taking a new Chinese turbine was fruitless; IIRC engineers refused to work at the site, supplies were interrupted and the power lines were being sabotaged.

Maybe there has been progress?

[davidbfpo]

Some nice photos and the text implies the turbines are now working:http://cryptome.org/eyeball/kajaki-dam/kajaki-dam.htm

[anonamatic]

Look for material on small scale electrification efforts in rural Africa. You may be able to find material about it being done in peaceful areas & potentially former conflict areas. I can't cite any NGO's doing this off the top of my head, but I've seen some on this subject at National Geographic. I believe those people are collecting some pretty good data along with what they're doing. There are similarities in peaceful areas to what happens in conflict zones, & comparisons with other areas of the world could help with separating the differences.